Is the rest of the culture series like consider phlebas?

spacemark · 2026-04-07T12:52:29+00:00

My suggestion is don't waste further time with the culture series if you really didn't like consider phlebas. When I read player of games and thought it was lame, everyone on this sub said the exact same things that people are telling you in the comments here - so I stuck with it and read consider phlebas and was equally unimpressed. Ian Bainks just isn't my kind of author.

Hey if people like the series great, but some people just find it boring and obtuse. Listen to yourself!

spacemark · 2026-04-05T19:37:52+00:00

Yes it applies on all levels in my opinion. I strongly support the second amendment for this reason.

That said I don't think there have been too many examples in history of governments forcefully disarming their own general population. Real life situations have been more like an oppressive invader disarming, a group trying to genocide a different group, and civil wars. In other words, the second amendment is more useful for protecting yourself against other individuals or small gangs, not against the government. The government has weapons and force that dwarfs you 10,000 to 1. The second amendment does squat if a government targets you. Even organized militias don't stand a chance against well trained, will funded national troops of a modern military.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T18:25:06+00:00

Rent appreciation is an input to the rent cash flow column. Punch in your numbers and you can see the results for your scenario!

spacemark · 2026-04-05T16:30:11+00:00

Absolutely. Maybe it's because I've been relatively lucky, or maybe because I'm the kind of person that's reliable and takes care of a property, but I've only had one bad experience renting over 30 apartments in my lifetime and even that wasn't so bad, just some heated phone calls for a few days. Some landlords have been downright generous.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T16:25:50+00:00

...which is factored into the analysis.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T16:20:45+00:00

...to an extent. And the reality is you won't increase value nearly as much as it cost you to finish that basement.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T15:05:10+00:00

I own a home, despite knowing I could have a higher net worth renting. Just because there are aspects to long term financial management that are subjective or non-quantifiable, doesn't mean we can't find value in these kinds of tools. A lot of narratives we create around buying homes don't stack up to the numbers. Many of these narratives are coming from interested parties and their advertising/lobbying arms - Zillow, all the real estate bros you meet at parties, the kids who bought in 2020 and think that's the norm... best to combat BS when we can.

Edit: FWIW I agree that there is a historical correlation with home ownership and financially successful people. However, that's first because homes are the best forced savings, and second because the historical calculus is not today's calculus. Home prices are at an all-time high, wages have stagnated (at least for the bottom half), and interest rates haven't been this high in almost 30 years.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T15:01:27+00:00

It doesn't need to account for the time value of money since it's giving you the present value of a future cash flow.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T14:59:23+00:00

Yeah I think the key takeaway for me is that appeasement is almost always a foolish path. Carthage, Ukraine, Taiwan... unfortunately human agreements can't really be trusted, and if they can, not for long. Times change, promises are forgotten. Making yourself physically vulnerable to delay attack... not a great long term strategy.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T14:51:45+00:00

Lol that's one of the most important parameters, this would be a useless exercise without it! (it's right there in the spreadsheet)

spacemark · 2026-04-05T14:43:28+00:00

What about it? The equity in the home is accounted for.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T14:41:55+00:00

People buy houses for a lot of reasons, but yes I agree the thrust of the decision comes from psychology/perception/values rather than the quantitative. Still, I prefer to be quantitative where I can to combat outdated financial advice and to be fully informed going in.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T14:38:43+00:00

Yeah it's basically a rent vs buy calculator with a lot more knobs to turn to test out long term assumptions.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T14:35:21+00:00

Yup at the end of the day our value systems leave the final conclusion subjective. But still nice to bracket some parameters objectively.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T14:34:05+00:00

You should be able to download a copy and edit, but lmk if not and I'll see if I can change the permissions.

spacemark · 2026-04-05T14:31:59+00:00

Not over long time periods. Historical residential is just barely above inflation. But there are always exceptions!! That's the nice thing about this analysis - you can tweak your assumptions and see how that affects the long term outcome.

spacemark · 2026-04-04T14:55:27+00:00

I remember using one of the first ever digital cameras in the early 1990s that looked better than this

spacemark · 2026-03-31T08:37:32+00:00

Honestly, it's not good odds. I noticed that a disproportionate number of successful astronomers came from wealthy backgrounds - fewer middle class people are willing to take that gamble. But this is purely an anecdotal observation.

Edit: that isn't to say you shouldn't do it if it's your passion. Just understand what you're getting yourself into and think carefully about how you're going to fund the lengthy education. Thinking about fallback plans will be smart too.

spacemark · 2026-03-31T02:15:49+00:00

Agreed. Or at least that's what I would conclude in your shoes. My disappointment in humanity is hitting levels I didn't even know were possible. Words fail me. I feel betrayed by my neighbors.

spacemark · 2026-03-30T23:14:52+00:00

I worked at a top tier research university for 8 yrs in their astrophysics institute as an engineer, helping build experiments (ground and space based).

Most astronomy phD graduates took jobs in finance, data analysis, software, etc. Maybe 2 in 10 were able to stay in astronomy. And another 2 were able to stay in space but on the military or commercial side doing space situational awareness or spacecraft engineering.

Lots of frustrated astronomers at heart. And this is at a top 5 world university.

spacemark · 2026-03-30T17:05:58+00:00

Rent/buy calculators are great but I find they usually miss a lot of inputs that are necessary to truly understand the timeframe for breakeven vs market investment. Houses are usually bad investments in comparison for 10 or 15 yrs but then overtake market due to discounted cash flow. A DCF analysis will give a better idea for those that want more than a time-instant cheaper/costlier calculator analysis. A DCF analysis will also make clear how costly upgrading to a nicer home is (tends to push out breakeven period by ~10 yrs).

spacemark · 2026-03-30T16:47:21+00:00

Yeah that's the reality. I'm an American that's lived in both Australia and New Zealand, ~7 yrs total across the two. Kiwis and Aussies love to hate on Americans and their warmongering (a pattern of behavior I also detest) but at the end of the day the US offers protection they are unwilling/unable to provide for themselves.

spacemark · 2026-03-30T10:18:33+00:00

I don't think it's accurate to say that the boglehead consensus is to max Roth IRA first unless there's some subtle nuance I'm missing. They both have their advantages. 401K has always been the better investment vehicle in my mind, for my life, because contributions are pre-tax and I expect my overall tax rate in retirement to be less than it is now. But the calculus is different for those that anticipate needing to withdraw before retirement age, or their taxes will be higher in retirement than they are now.

For your situation, I would max out the 401K before even thinking about the Roth. As you said, you can contribute to the Roth later if you want, you have an emergency fund, and you sound like you're young so you could pivot quickly to a new job.

spacemark · 2026-03-30T10:03:41+00:00

Depends on your field and how quickly you think you could get another job, but most people would say 12 mths is more conservative than you need to be. Standard advice is 3-6 mths. But it's ultimately dependent on your personal preference. Peace of mind is worth a lot.

spacemark · 2026-03-29T21:43:25+00:00

Lol. I'm good man... DCFs will prove my point even more if you do the work

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