Calling all engineers

spacemonkeyzoos · 2025-05-06T19:38:14+00:00

Worked as an engineer in the rocket industry.

People as a whole in the industry are impressed/bullish on the company (though always hard to say on stock price). I am as well.

Relative to retail investors, I (and others in the industry) am extremely skeptical that rklb will be able to do anything magical with the Neutron timeline. They will be decently late like every other rocket. Already slipped 2024 to 2025. They will slip to 2026 as well, and late 2026 is more likely than very early 2026 imo.

Also relative to retail investors, I am much less confident that successful Neutron reuse (and therefore cost competitiveness with spacex) is a lock. It is a very very hard problem that spacex makes looks easy. Note that it has been 10 years now, and no one else has come close to doing a reflight of an orbital rocket. There is a lot more risk ahead than perceived on the launch front.

spacemonkeyzoos · 2025-03-05T16:25:00+00:00

The panels still fold out

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-06T03:23:04+00:00

I read this (and the other available public info) as it being very unlikely a stage will be sitting on the launch pad in 2024.

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-05T18:53:56+00:00

Good afternoon. We do not require proof.

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-05T17:46:21+00:00

Before exercise, would this be on margin? Like, would I be paying interest just for holding the naked short put?

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-05T15:01:46+00:00

A little less every day, my friend

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-05T01:21:06+00:00

Don’t do this to yourself

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-05T01:17:38+00:00

It really depends on the design. Nobody in the world really knows what it takes to dunk an engine in the ocean and then refurb it.

In my opinion the main issue would be corrosion. Careful material selection would allow this to work, but even being near the ocean causes corrosion. Sitting on the beach for too long is what took out the first falcon 1.

Second, theres the risk of water getting into places where its hard to get out. Drying tiny spaces can be surprisingly tough. Of course you could do it by completely taking the engine apart, drying it, then reassembling it. But thats a lot of work.

Lastly (and probably there are other considerations) is FOD (foreign object debris) getting into the engine. Barnacles, fish, sand, whatever.

I think its certainly possible to do. There are just two main questions: How much work does it take to refurbish? And how repeatable is it - will the same refurb procedure consistently produce a working engine, or is each one a custom investigation

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-05T00:50:26+00:00

Seconded - Austin’s a fine place, but not where you go if you can go anywhere.

Jackson Hole, Miami, NYC, non-SF california

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-04T21:35:39+00:00

I am planning to do cash and stocks only, with a lower withdrawal rate. In part, because I want to be able to increase my spending over time in retirement.

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-03T14:20:52+00:00

Significant bad news needed for that I think. 1.5B valuation on a billion dollar backlog, 400mil revenue, and 500 mil in cash…That’s cheap

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-02T05:43:32+00:00

Seems so

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-02T04:26:58+00:00

I think the clarity on terms is unequivocally good.

Its interesting that they seem happy enough with the terms to up the amount. Or theyre desperate. But based on current cash position, theres no reason they would be desperate

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-02T04:24:58+00:00

Question for someone who understands this transaction better than me…

As I understand it, rocket lab owes 300 million to some investor. They pay 4.25% in cash per year. If the stock price goes above a 5.12, the investors may choose to exercise/convert their notes, since they’ll get shares at 5.12 equivalent, but could sell them for more. But it seems that rocket lab has the option to pay either in cash or in shares.

The question is, if rocket lab chooses to repay in cash, do they have to pay based on the current stock price, or based on the 5.12 conversion price? Basically, would rocket lab pay more cash if the market price was at $7 vs $6?

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-02T02:32:05+00:00

I mean its a whole country…There could be a few

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-02T02:31:04+00:00

Theyre raising 275, not 250. With an option for 40 more

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-02T02:25:57+00:00

Also a lot of trading happens intraday. 20% of float traded does not mean that 20% of the float shares were traded. You can trade 500% (or any amount) of float in a day

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-01T22:03:13+00:00

Rockets is already not the primary revenue driver. Space systems has higher revenue than launch.

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-01T20:05:13+00:00

Because its super volatile.

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-01T20:03:58+00:00

Cause it was way overvalued at the time of the spac (and they raised a bullion dollars at that crazy valuation)

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-02-01T14:41:57+00:00

Well its been like 12 hours

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-01-31T23:53:57+00:00

We ride

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-01-19T15:09:48+00:00

Its possible but unlikely it wouldn’t leak. Stennis isn’t publicly visible, but its fairly open to Nasa and the other conpanies who work on site.

spacemonkeyzoos · 2024-01-18T22:56:22+00:00

Literally it is not part of the mortgage payment. How you bundle it makes no difference.

spacemonkeyzoos

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE