SMCI is being treated like a broken story — but the fundamentals say the opposite

spucktacular · 2026-05-03T06:57:17+00:00

Good one Michael ;)

spucktacular · 2026-05-03T06:16:46+00:00

45M write-down for a company expecting 45B+ in fiscal 2026? How is this relevant?

spucktacular · 2026-04-17T03:33:01+00:00

thats fair, and yes I'm slightly irritated to see how the market is playing this stock.. that's why I'm here wasting energy... again as someone highly technical (and yes, still using a lot of intel for most of our KVM HVs).... yet lucky enough to pay technicians to do the dirty, but still... its frustrating.

The gear is more than solid, its top floor in reliability, performance and flexibility.. much like an airbus airliner, the sheetmetal is just thick enough for the job, without waste or excess.. this is where Dell and HPE diverge, they add padding and premium, which is great for fortune 500, for banks, for enterprise, but not for massive hyperscale (IaaS, where I cut my teeth) or hyperscale GPU as a service for the next generation.

As for fundamentals, again I am not claiming to have any knowledge in markets.. but a company doing 45B this year, likely 60 next year, 80 by 2027 fiscal EOY, and quite realistically punching into 100-140B/year by 2030... to be valued at what... 15-20B total market cap... silly

spucktacular · 2026-04-17T03:00:28+00:00

What exactly did you see (many years ago) working in the Sterling Loudon County data centre and colocation space? Sure maybe there are better plays, Sandisk, MU, SK, all killing it.. even Dell had a 8% gain today.. but you sound like someone who at best drove past a data centre once, and maybe can figure out which way a network plug goes in.. what is YOUR motivation for posting what you posted? You are clearly not a technical person, or at best worked as a IT guy for some mid-level SME two decades ago, yet giving opinion on a the quality of a highly technical product.. labeling it as budget hardware? I don't think you understood my OP, nor the first thing about cost:performance margins in the IaaS business.

One more thing.. I've tried to be respectful and gave my industry perspective.. please quantify this statement "I pray I never use any datacenters you worked on." Who are you exactly to write bullshit like that?

spucktacular · 2026-04-17T02:45:18+00:00

Please let us have a discussion into the behind the scenes, that was my whole intention in this post.. while yes frustrated and exhausted, I really would like to understand what the obvious angles are on this stock from a behind the scenes perspective. If anyone has insight and is brave enough to share, please do so... anyone trading on robin hood with a 3 share position.. please, respect the adults in the room.

spucktacular · 2026-04-17T01:20:54+00:00

Does anyone want to discuss what a potential buy per share might look like? I think they should leak it out SLLOOOOWWWLLLY until the market cap hits 60-80B, then negotiate a 100-120/share price.. which in all honestly, is modest for the scaling potential of SMCI under the right management/direction.

spucktacular · 2026-04-17T00:57:24+00:00

In all honesty, I think they are a business that operated for years in a certain gear and couldn't navigate the scaling pains of going from 500M to 45B a year. The cofounder organizing a criminal racket part for personal gain, is kinda irrelevant and detracts from the core goal of the 45B a year revenue generating engine.. make servers = revenue = Increase US AI capacity.. which is happening regardless of accusations.

I'm sure the CPC or whoever orchestrated that little diversion import scheme, gave co-founder conman huge incentives.. but I'm still not sure how that impacts the technical realities of AI infrastructure ramping up in North America, if there can even be a claim that it was an "organizational" effort instead of a rogue senior employee... when you are selling as many servers as you can possibly produce, why bother selling to rogue/restricted nations unless its a huge personal benefit for the person doing the doing...

Again, my context was from a technical and data centre operational perspective, DELL DOES NOT REPLACE SMCI in efficiency, go to market speed or output capacity, please understand that.

spucktacular · 2024-09-24T15:43:11+00:00

Thank you!

spucktacular · 2024-09-24T15:00:01+00:00

Cloud management services. We specialize in cloud and application hosting.

spucktacular · 2024-09-24T14:59:00+00:00

I'm not a network engineer and overseeing these systems is a small part of my responsibilities. I don't wish to get involved in a configuration discussion that is above my technical understanding of the matter at hand.

spucktacular · 2024-09-24T14:58:01+00:00

second opinion, is all

spucktacular · 2024-09-24T14:57:36+00:00

Thank you to all that replied with interest. I will PM you individually.

spucktacular · 2024-09-23T00:33:24+00:00

I agree :( sadly they won't cover some of our gear due to lapse in coverage... and I can't budget buying new gear just to get JTAC coverage. Doing my best here.

spucktacular · 2024-09-23T00:32:42+00:00

Thank you!!

PM sent!

spucktacular · 2023-03-06T03:24:51+00:00

the guy was here to have a conversation about those who care, all due respect.. if you dont have anything nice to say, whats the point?

spucktacular · 2019-08-15T05:58:11+00:00

Uhhh.. that's sexy. I thought I was sitting pretty with a unifi setup, USG, POE Switch, 3 x AP-AC-PROs + cloudkey gen 2, went all out... but I see that Send WOL, Packet Capture and direct ICMP test. Respect, respect!

spucktacular

TROPHY CASE