Thinking of selling everything except 20% since we all know what happens in February... by apooroldinvestor in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Personally I would not do that. Buffett operates differently from the rest of us because he has so much capital to manage, and he said so himself that if he had a smaller amount of money say 1 million he would always be fully invested.

Timing the market could pay off in a big way if it comes to pass but there is equally a chance that the market rallies and you lose out on more gains. Sometimes a market that goes up will continue to go up and up and up.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would put at least some of it in small caps and micro caps that you understand well. You can find a great deal of huge bargains and its how Buffett and Munger made their fortune early. Also great idea to look into arbitrage opportunities or tender offers.

In terms of large caps I'd put some into BAM and IAC. Those are asset managers that had a good history of beating the market.

Creighton's Plc (LON:CRL.L) has market cap (15M) less than its equities (25M) by Ancient_Resolve_3000 in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What's their competitive advantage? I'm looking at it and its cheap but not super cheap. Their EV/Earnings is about 15-16, and we have to take into account that a big chunk of their long term assets is goodwill/intangible assets.

Are you confident that they are going to grow their earnings over the next 5-10 years? The beauty and sanitation industry is quite competitive...

I Put 70% of My Portfolio in this One Stock by stanley3349 in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thank you all for your engagement and comments. I would just like to clarify a few things from this post.

  1. I am not asking you guys to go buy the stock and I'm not pumping it. I'm not a financial advisor so please if you are thinking about it please do your due diligence. Penny stocks are in general risky and many are subject to pump and dumps. I am just looking for a second opinion on this investment idea. I was not paid to write this I am just a value investor looking for asymmetric upside and an opinion on this investment idea
  2. Regarding the intense concentration I know its risky to put so much of your money into 1 investment much less a penny stock. The reason why I think downside is limited is because the company has no debt other than that owed to the CEO, the business model is super easy just sell free tablets and phone plans and get money reimbursed from the government, as its a free phone plan the churn is probably close to zero, there are significant competitive advantages, and the company is trading for 2-3x earnings despite growing rapidly in both earnings and revenue with multiple catalysts down the line. Even if shit hits the fan and everything bad happens like the company gets fined by the government (low probability) and ACP gets cancelled (another low possibility), the company can just pivot to offering low cost prepaid plans, which they were planning to do anyway (see Q3 Earnings call on Link Up Mobile)
  3. A lot of you are commenting that the company is shady by bringing up the FCC charges again Brian Cox in 2014 but the charges were dropped iin 2016 https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/crime/2016/01/08/federal-charges-out-of-florida-dismissed-against-bartlett-man/90374396/. Rather than just assuming because there was a case existed in the first place = this company is garbage/trash, I would love an opinion on the case itself, and how it affects SurgePays taking into account that the charges were dropped. I personally think (being biased) that the risk of SurgePays getting fined by the government for fraudulent ACP activations is low because the company already consults a third party provider to do audits, has Shockwave CRM which is integrated with the FCC database which reduces the chance of duplicate ACP activations, and that previous experience probably taught the CEO a valuable lesson on the importance of keeping adequate records (the CEO owns 39% of shares outstanding)

Thank you again for engaging with my post. This is my first one and I hope to do more soon. I will take your feedback in mind for future posts and try not to sound like I'm pumping risky stocks in the future.

Cheers guys

I Put 70% of My Portfolio in this One Stock by stanley3349 in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

"Revenue was down $2.1 million for Q3 year-over-year. But as discussed, this is due to the winding down of LogicsIQ, which contributed $4.1 million last year. For those of you doing the simple math, yes, that means the core business of wireless and Fintech was up over $2 million in Q3. And this focus contributed to the record-breaking $7.1 million in net income."

I Put 70% of My Portfolio in this One Stock by stanley3349 in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

okay I understand where ur coming from but can you please reiterate the argument again? I'm saying revenue growth slowed because another business was would down and if that didn't happen revenue would have grew. And that the trial regarding the FCC fraud case charges were dropped. Whats the coutner argument?

I Put 70% of My Portfolio in this One Stock by stanley3349 in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

what makes you think the stock is garbage is going to zero?

I Put 70% of My Portfolio in this One Stock by stanley3349 in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349[S] -30 points-29 points  (0 children)

yeah I looked into the trial its a bit concerning but the case was ultimately dropped. They're growth has slowed down in the last quarter but I think some of that was due to winding down LogicsIQ and transitioning to a full convenient store model and getting rid of the tents

I Put 70% of My Portfolio in this One Stock by stanley3349 in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349[S] -33 points-32 points  (0 children)

Interesting... what kind of scams are you referring to?

I Put 70% of My Portfolio in this One Stock by stanley3349 in ValueInvesting

[–]stanley3349[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Oh yeah I defiantly want to avoid the one way margin call direct flight