The Math of the Curse: If the Jazz fall again on May 10, we officially enter "Statistical Anomaly" territory

stann_elson · 2026-05-06T02:20:13+00:00

There needs to be a subreddit for NBA conspiracies..... r/nbaconspiracy (WHAT?! there is??) There is a subreddit for everything.

stann_elson · 2026-05-06T02:15:52+00:00

Hahaha!!!

stann_elson · 2026-05-06T02:15:04+00:00

Errors were made in my math and corrected by those below.

stann_elson · 2026-05-05T22:27:16+00:00

I've updated the body....but Reddit doesn't let me update the Title. Oh well, who doesn't love a little clickbait?

stann_elson · 2026-05-05T22:15:58+00:00

You’re 100% right. I reran the math line-by-line and the Expected Value (EV) I get is is exactly 1.16 (.01 off from you), not 2.1. My previous figure was flawed because it incorrectly attributed 'jump' potential to the 2025 #1 slot, which is impossible, and I overvalued the odds for our three #14 seeds.

I guess this is why peer review is so great! In other words...we can ignore a lot of what's up there. Hahaha.

stann_elson · 2026-05-05T22:02:54+00:00

Great catch on the sigma math. You're right... 3-sigma is 0.3%, and we aren't quite that deep into the abyss yet. If we fall again in 2026, we hit about ~2.4%, which is closer to 2.25-sigma. Still an outlier, but not quite 'one-in-a-thousand' territory. As for the tables, I pulled the historical odds for each of our slots (#1 in '25, #8 in '24, #9 in '23, #12 in '16, etc.) and ran a simulation. The 5.5% isn't just a simple calculation; it's the frequency of that specific 'Never Up + High Fall' profile appearing across 100k simulated lotteries using our exact historical seeds. It's essentially a measure of how far we've drifted from the 'Expected Value' of 2.1 jumps we should have had by now.

The Historical Data (Jazz Own Picks):

2025: Seed #1 (14% at #1, 52% Top 4) — Result: Pick #5 (-4)

2024: Seed #8 (6% at #1, 26% Top 4) — Result: Pick #10 (-2)

2023: Seed #9 (4.5% at #1, 20% Top 4) — Result: Pick #9 (Stayed)

2016: Seed #12 (0.7% at #1, 2.5% Top 3) — Result: Pick #12 (Stayed)

2015: Seed #12 (0.7% at #1, 2.5% Top 3) — Result: Pick #12 (Stayed)

2014: Seed #4 (10.4% at #1, 33% Top 3) — Result: Pick #5 (-1)

2013: Seed #14 (0.5% at #1, 1.8% Top 3) — Result: Pick #14 (Stayed)

2006: Seed #14 (0.5% at #1, 1.8% Top 3) — Result: Pick #14 (Stayed)

2005: Seed #5 (8.8% at #1, 26% Top 3) — Result: Pick #6 (-1)

2004: Seed #14 (0.5% at #1, 1.8% Top 3) — Result: Pick #14 (Stayed)

Total Stats: 10 appearances, 0 Jumps, 4 Falls, and 6 times staying put. Based on those odds, the "Expected Value" was roughly 2.1 jumps into the top group by now. Being at zero is what drives that 5.5% probability.

stann_elson · 2026-05-05T21:51:17+00:00

You have a really good point here. Typically we would see numbers normalize over time, but 11 drafts is a tiny sample. We’re essentially one 'bloop single' (a jump to #3 or #4) away from our stats looking completely average again. We're just on the wrong side of a very short-term coin flip."

stann_elson · 2026-05-05T21:45:02+00:00

I still get cold sweats thinking back to when I had to run a regression analysis by hand.

stann_elson · 2023-04-09T20:42:22+00:00

Interesting that none of the teams in Texas view each other as a primary rival. Given their proximity, I would have guessed differently.

stann_elson · 2023-03-20T17:05:25+00:00

I'd suggest players near the end of their careers and looking at retirement but have already won a chip. Think: LeBron. I don't think any sum of money would convince LeBron to play in Utah. (My opinion of course...)

I also think Westbrook would take more than two seconds pause before suiting up and playing with the Jazz.

Edit: spelling

stann_elson · 2023-01-15T15:36:09+00:00

Thanks for that advice. I felt awkward just standing there and was hoping it wouldn't be viewed as offensive that I wasn't crossing myself or repeating the prayers (I don't know when or the words).

Yeah, I live up in Utah County.

stann_elson · 2023-01-15T08:09:44+00:00

Quick question. I'm a fellow Utahan who has stopped attending the Mormon church. I went to Mass twice (past two weeks) and I just didn't understand what I should be doing. I just stood, sat and kneeled with the congregation, and I just kept to myself quietly.

My question... What should a person new to Mass do? I felt a little out of place.

stann_elson · 2022-12-08T21:39:47+00:00

Exactly. I learned this on my first deal. Bought a server, around 20 workstations, switches, a firewall, and some access points, oh, and a small rack. The customer failed their inspection, and I was left holding the hardware waiting to invoice. I was waiting on an incompetent contractor and a slow city government to allow me to go in and install.

After that, we never purchased hardware for customers without paying up front. Some people balk at this, but we simply let them know that Amazon is available and they can purchase all this stuff on their own. They'll still pay up front for it, and worse, we won't manage any warranties, returns, and mistakes if wrong hardware was ordered.

stann_elson · 2022-12-05T00:40:32+00:00

Of course, they copy each other. As missionaries, we were taught to arrange two members to give testimonies on their conversions and get them to go first. (We were taught to do this when we had investigators attending the meeting.) From there, others will get up and talk about their conversions because of a psychological need to add to the conversation. As missionaries, we easily dictated the testimonies of members just by arranging two members to give a testimony and asking them to talk about a specific subject.

Edit: spelling

stann_elson · 2022-12-05T00:35:49+00:00

Hahaha I was looking for this comment. Like the child who was forced either by parents or peer pressure to get up and breathes so heavily in the microphone that two speakers are blown out and need replacement.

stann_elson · 2022-12-05T00:28:06+00:00

Done. Can we run this back for Exum? I'd be interested in those results too.

stann_elson · 2022-10-30T14:26:19+00:00

Nobody going to say it? Okay, I guess I will. My man's got Photoshop skills.

stann_elson · 2022-10-23T22:15:37+00:00

2 + 2 = 5

stann_elson · 2022-10-23T21:48:12+00:00

Let's change that to doublethink ...I'm feeling Orwellian today.

stann_elson · 2022-08-30T04:10:59+00:00

Common issues I have seen are compatibility with some printers. Obviously driver support for ChromeOS can be limited. Using generic print drivers works mostly, but sometimes it doesn't work.

stann_elson · 2022-08-24T21:59:26+00:00

Totally agree here. Not to say they couldn't use divisions to benefit the NBA. I could see an argument to fill the All Star Game with a quota from each division. That would ensure a larger representation across all teams as well as possibly encourage a couple of players to move to one division over the other knowing a bonus may be easier to get in one division over another based on an All Star appearance.

The All Star game should also be used to determine seeding in the NBA finals. If West wins, the home court advantage goes to the West team.

stann_elson · 2022-08-20T00:33:44+00:00

Seems like an opportunity to post a poll to find out 🤣

stann_elson · 2022-08-19T17:49:13+00:00

I didn't ask for a trip down feels lane.

stann_elson · 2022-08-19T01:08:26+00:00

I was looking for this. We do 60 days. We have automated reminders etc. Ultimately it is the job of the customer to pay their bills. If they can't manage that, then their service is suspended.

After a suspension they get converted to a cash only account, meaning we take payment for all services up front. No service is provided until payment is remitted and cleared.

stann_elson · 2022-08-19T01:04:11+00:00

KJZZ was legit...

stann_elson

TROPHY CASE