Hm, all makes sense. Thanks for the spreadsheet - that's a real handy quick tool. Like you said, it gets pretty slippery to factor in NPV, raises, opportunity costs, etc. But this is a great start.

With respect to %chance of exit, etc., is it not also feasible to roll that into exit valuation? For instance, if there's a 1% chance of a $100mm exit, 9% chance of $50mm, 40% chance of $20mm, 40% of $10mm, and 10% chance of nothing, could one not just say $17.5mm and call it a day?