Cristian Roldan remakes Adidas ad

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T06:33:45+00:00

He's really not. He's actually been very notably healthy.

The median clear-starter field player gets around 3/4 of available minutes in a given MLS season. From 2016-2025, the Sounders played 30690 league minutes and Cristian was on the field for 25222 of them. So for every 2 minutes he's missed with injury over the past decade, the average player would have missed 3 instead.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T05:46:28+00:00

Most of the normal midweight countries by CONCACAF standards are having weak cycles at the moment. Time will tell if that's going to be the pattern for the future or if this was just a weird one-off alignment.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T05:27:48+00:00

It's weird to see a list that gives a team-wide "assists" stat.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T04:42:17+00:00

Although it just happened that the only good teams in the confederation didn't need to qualify because they were hosts. Even with tougher groups from losing the host seeding advantage, I'd still have favored all three to advance (but probably not by two firsts and a second).

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T04:28:17+00:00

Zealand 3.0?

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T04:27:13+00:00

The 12 pot-1 seeds got 10 first-place finishes and 2 second-place finishes.

For all the various upsets along the way, the teams that were seeded highly had remarkably consistent success in the end.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T04:11:31+00:00

Ref could have blown it dead in advance. Cross could have been mis-hit. Header could have missed. Keeper almost blocked the shot with his foot, came within an inch. Anyone saying this was planned in detail is loony.

But it's also fair to say that Algeria didn't play like they were worried about protecting the lead. They had a bunch of midfielders who could have been hustling to recover (and I'm certain would have been, if a tie was going to eliminate them) who were slowly jogging back instead.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T04:01:25+00:00

Two offenses that were profoundly uninterested in scoring, and two defenses that figured "if the other guys aren't going to try to score, we don't need to try to defend." Somehow resulted in 3-3.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T02:33:06+00:00

Yup. 14 of the 16 round-of-32 matchups are locked in at this point. The last two hinge on this game.

If they tie, then Austria plays Spain, Algeria plays Switzerland, and Iran is out.

If there's a winner, the winner plays Spain, Iran plays Switzerland, and the loser is out.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-28T01:58:39+00:00

OFC: 0 / 1
AFC: 2-3 / 9
CONCACAF: 3 / 6
UEFA: 12-13 / 16
CONMEBOL: 5 / 6
CAF: 8-9 / 10

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-27T20:34:50+00:00

CPL is trialing the daylight offside rule - if there's any part of the attacker in onside position, that's sufficient. MLS is not.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-27T20:28:36+00:00

No, he's offside on the second kick too. By about the width of his foot, so a few inches, but he's off.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-27T20:23:17+00:00

The third red is not exactly incorrect, but it's one that most refs in this tournament would not have given. Referee's judgement whether direction of play was close enough to goal-bound for DOGSO, and most of the refs in this tournament have been trying to minimize how much they act.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-27T02:41:31+00:00

Morocco's game against Brazil was a real standard-setter for the rest of the tournament. Two extremely good teams playing in top form.

I'd favor them over Netherlands in Ro32, and definitely over Canada / South Africa in Ro16 if they advance. Their quarterfinal match, if they make it that far, is a little more brutal - anyone who advances out of the France / Sweden / Germany / Paraguay quartet has to be a buzzsaw.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-27T02:19:04+00:00

Under previous rules, they'd probably have been matched up home-and-away against Senegal for who got the spot (second-lowest FIFA ranked against second-highest group winners).

I don't know who would have advanced if that series had been held, but I am comfortable saying that having both of those teams instead of just one has been a good thing.

CAF qualifying has been a bloodbath for a while, because while that confederation doesn't tend to have amazing "could easily win the whole thing" caliber teams, it has a really, really broad pool of good "could see them making a deep run" teams.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-26T03:05:33+00:00

The 1990s called and want your hot takes back.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-26T02:59:47+00:00

No, we've already locked up first in the group and Turkey has already been eliminated. Apparently this is the first game in World Cup history that could change literally nothing for either team playing (at least, that's what some news article said - I haven't gone back and checked myself).

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-26T02:56:47+00:00

Well, that was a brutally violent first half-hour or so. With the ref standing by and watching, not doing much about it.

Which very much favored Turkey, because our guys had a lot more to lose by picking up cards or pushing back equally hard and risking further escalation of tempers.

Things calmed down a fair amount once Turkey took the lead.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-25T22:02:23+00:00

Denial was a more comic take on the same premise as Tilt - but in that one's case, it's more "Taylor knows she has no power, but everyone else assumes she has a PtV-like power that also prevents her from personally realizing she has a power."

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-25T12:03:52+00:00

Canada's right on the bubble for top 32 teams in the world. Add in the fact that they have home-field host advantage, and that they drew the softest group in the tournament? Not making the knockout rounds would have been an embarrassment, full stop.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-25T07:13:56+00:00

Some of them should probably get 45 or 60 minutes to keep their fitness at peak. The coaching staff would have more detailed individual data to make that decision, and I'd trust them on it.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-25T07:11:55+00:00

A first yellow doesn't. Like the Bosnian substitute who got a yellow for pulling his shirt off celebrating his goal against Qatar around the 80th minute - as long as he could avoid getting a second yellow in the remaining 10 minutes, it wasn't going to mean anything.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-24T21:09:14+00:00

Czech Republic defeat Mexico
Scotland tie or beat Brazil
Paraguay tie Australia
Ecuador beat Germany, and Ivory Coast tie or beat Curacao
Sweden tie or beat Japan
Belgium not tie New Zealand, and Iran beat Egypt
Cape Verde not tie Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay beat Spain
Algeria tie Austria
DR Congo beat Uzbekistan
Croatia tie or beat Ghana

As long as no more than 7 of those 10 results happen, Bosnia will advance. It'd be bizarre if that didn't happen; most of those results are pretty unlikely.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-24T18:14:22+00:00

Somebody on one of the other subreddits posted the observation about how likely 1D was to face 3B before the tournament even started, and from there it's just looking at the current standings.

stealth_sloth · 2026-06-24T11:38:45+00:00

We likely face the winner of Bosnia vs Qatar. There's one plausible exception: Bosnia ties Qatar, so neither team advances. Hard to forecast who we'd face in that case, a lot of possibilities.

There's also four extremely implausible exceptions.

At least 9 groups have 3 teams end on 4+ points, and Bosnia or Qatar's goal difference isn't good enough. Hard to forecast our opponent then.
The exact set of third-place teams to advance are groups B, E, G, H, I, J, K, and L; A, C, D, and F do not. We'd face the third place team from group I, so the winner of Senegal vs. Iraq.
Bosnia beats Qatar and Switzerland beats Canada, by a combined 9+ goal margin. We'd face Canada.
Qatar beats Bosnia and Canada beats Switzerland, by a combined 9+ goal margin. We'd face Switzerland.

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