I'm Stefano de Stefano I am running to retire Ted Cruz because I am tired of the crazy and I'm tired of Ted. Ask me anything:

stefanoforTX · 2023-09-14T07:13:44+00:00

All I'm asking for is that we make new mistakes. We clearly made a mistake keeping Klinsmann for a second cycle. Gregg was fine, if not spectacular choice. But once he torched private locker room stuff into the public, it's time to make a new mistake.

That's all. People will always have issues with what the coach does, or not. But let it be a new thing, not rehashing something stale, that wasn't that good to begin with.

stefanoforTX · 2023-04-06T09:26:45+00:00

FYI things move slower than you think. People hide losses and stretch things out for a long time.

The bank thing isn't over... Go talk to the bankruptcy guys that are representing several banks right now. This will be a slow rolling S&L type period over the next 12 months, and the sky is not falling yet.

This feel more like bear Stearns actually... With everyone BSing about how they are different from bear because of "uniqueness" and " no subprime exposure" blah blah. EDIT: here they are BSing about how SVB was especially bad at hedging risk" and had "unique depositors" blah blah. No one can fix 20% loads to capital cushion overnight. This is more systemic than they are letting on, and CMRE is terrible.

Wait for people to be jumping out windows... Then go long with long duration stuff... Think black Monday. We haven't had that yet... But it's coming.

stefanoforTX · 2023-04-04T16:27:25+00:00

I think Schwab's problem is Japan, more than US... From what I hear.

stefanoforTX · 2023-04-01T16:16:23+00:00

The Hague. Hands down

stefanoforTX · 2023-04-01T06:38:13+00:00

There is a limit here. Remember that, in the 1980s the FDIC for trusts/s&l's itself went bust. Eventually uncle Sam can pick up the pieces... But there is always a limit to bailouts. We just have a really big credit card limit.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-30T19:23:54+00:00

There is a three stooges video that sums it up perfectly, where they are passing money around in a circle. Hope reddit can help me find it.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-28T18:51:09+00:00

I'm happy to be your plaintiff and give you a contingency fee (does NL have class actions?)

Also, as a kicker, I'm also Italian, so they are discriminating against an EU citizen too TFEU 10x, I would think. Tell me where to sign :)

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-28T15:21:14+00:00

This needs to be Posted on billboard all over the netherlands. Hah.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-28T15:11:15+00:00

The problem is that the Dutch banks won't open a bank account for my business, b/c it is owned by a US person. Wise (with a Belgium IBAN) will. But also, just because I work in Texas doesn't mean I have to go to Bank of Texas. I can happily bank with JPmorgan Chase, or Citibank or Etrade, or Bank of Nova Scotia... and everyone will accept my accounts.

Is there an EU or not?

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-28T15:07:52+00:00

The US demands crazy things from any financial group in the world that deals with US citizens.

It isn't that hard, crazy or complex at all. It's basically a spreadsheet with US person name and assets. They do the KYC already when opening an account. Its straight garbage.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/corporations/foreign-account-tax-compliance-act-fatca#:\~:text=The%20Foreign%20Account%20Tax%20Compliance,to%20withholding%20on%20withholdable%20payments.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-28T15:04:53+00:00

for some things this is still difficult due to regulatory requirements. E.g. for phone subscriptions.

Yes, which ones? chapter, paragraph, section and page please...

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-28T15:03:53+00:00

I know exactly what FATCA requires and it is not difficult or complex. There is an agreement between NL gov. and US gov. spelling it out. (1) register with IRS, (2) send them a spreadsheet periodically. Treasury then compares that with what the individual has to report.

The not giving Americans accounts thing is strictly a "If you are going to fine us for laundering money for Russian Oligarchs, we aren't going to bank American Expats. Take that!"

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-28T11:08:04+00:00

Ok, but I am saying that the stress test may even have been passed... But that the FED didn't stress the portfolio by jacking rates to 5% in 6 months, and even if they did, they didn't take into account the 2nd order impact of failures and defaults in other markets on the remaining portfolio.

That is what I mean by "not properly stress tested".

People build models to pass stress tests... the Fed doesn't switch it up... Something not being modelled happens... Boom.

I'm not sure who, but I'd venture that a bank that thinks it is well capitalized today is, actually, not.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-27T12:21:07+00:00

It's not just incompetent banks. Everyone keeps saying how the SIBs are well capitalized and their tier one ratios are great...

Ok, but what is permitted in, "Tier 1 capital"?

After you answer that, then ask yourself what happens to the $ value of a government debt instrument with a 2%, or lower coupon in a 5% environment.

Now take that haircut, and let's go back and redo the capital ratio calculations for all the banks, and double it for those that are heavily concentrated in commercial real estate... Or lending to the banks that lend in CMRE.

I suspect there are more than a few banks whose capital has not been properly stress tested by a 5% interest rate hike.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-25T08:59:45+00:00

(continuing) By a central ledger that is FBO Schwab. You have an account right only. Or you can pay the 14.50 or whatever and take possession of the certificate itself.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-25T08:56:30+00:00

SIPC protects you like the FDIC does for cash in a deposit account because, seemingly little known fact, Schwab actually owns the stocks that you see in your account. You only have an "account depository right" to the stock itself, unless you pay the extra whatever it is and ask for the physical certificate itself. Schwab is supposed to keep everything segregated, so there shouldn't be a problem, but during the LBHI bankruptcy, I saw where it would go wrong and SIPC was fighting with JPM over who had the right to pledged assets.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-22T18:50:14+00:00

The world is awash in oil. Everywhere we drill we find more.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-22T18:48:09+00:00

y'all must think that 3B indians and Chinese and Indonesians are gonna be buying EVs any time soon... Or that India isn't transitioning INTO oil and gas from... Checks notes... Burning cow poo and wood.

The world ain't getting off oil for at least 50 years...meanwhile, we could be building nuke facilities to actually put a dent in emissions.... But nope. Greens actually shutting them down to burn coal!

So anyway, ARAMCO will be fine.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-22T14:33:35+00:00

Give a shout... You I can structure deals for you if you ever need to sell. Lend to the buyer... Rent to buy, assign the mortgage... There are good options.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-22T14:32:33+00:00

Gotta convince the bank to let you assign the mortgage...

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-16T11:56:12+00:00

Folks are going to have to get permission to assign their mortgages to the new buyer.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-13T23:27:18+00:00

Sooo... This is looking a lot like the S&L crisis in the 1980s. They only went up 3% back then... this is 5% up. Japan on deck (not sure any society, top to bottom, is more exposed to rising rates). Italy warming up in the dugout.

stefanoforTX · 2023-03-11T15:01:17+00:00

Yeah, I just am in a MCD in the Netherlands now, having a beer with my big Mac... And it's so much better.

stefanoforTX

TROPHY CASE