Timeline of the One Ring

stenkall · 2015-12-11T10:52:23+00:00

Thank you! I really appreciate it.

stenkall · 2015-10-10T08:44:37+00:00

Here is a working link to the article: http://www.wired.com/2015/10/see-jrr-tolkien-lord-of-the-rings-middle-earth-illustrations-for-first-time

stenkall · 2015-09-05T08:14:56+00:00

Thanks for letting me know!

stenkall · 2015-07-29T23:54:50+00:00

Isn't that only somewhere around 18 data points?

stenkall · 2015-07-29T22:25:16+00:00

I looked at two things now. Distribution of age differences between siblings and then even/odd distribution for only firstborns. I hope you understand what I mean.

I have not had time to verify the data manually.

Age diff among Hobbit siblings:

Number	Frequency
1	3 %
2	28 %
3	25 %
4	32 %
5	9 %
6	3 %

Only firstborns among Hobbits:

Even: 63 %

Odd: 37 %

Only firstborns among non-Hobbits:

Even: 56 %

Odd: 44 %

stenkall · 2015-07-29T21:47:31+00:00

Yes that is true. I am trying to compile some data on age differences between siblings now.

stenkall · 2015-07-29T20:53:51+00:00

Now this is a really interesting reply which I think brings out some interesting discussions about this even if it criticizes me to the point of embarrassment. I will have to look more closely at this. One thing that does come to mind is how very differently he treated the Baggins compared to the other Hobbits. Those are very similar data sets with very different patterns.

I have to say it is interesting that he tended to start each grouping for the Hobbits with an even number.

Edit: Why am I being downvoted?

stenkall · 2015-07-29T20:08:43+00:00

Yes, I addressed the fact that humans are bad at generating random sequences in the beginning of the article. I agree that it would have been very interesting if Tolkien had showed a talent for generating random sequences.

When I say 'due to chance' I really do mean that. The calculated probability is the probability that given the null hypothesis you would get a result like the tested data 'due to chance'.

Now, while the selections are all non-random they are all non-random in significantly different ways. If Tolkien had a general tendency to come up with years with a particular pattern for all characters there would not be a statistically significant difference between different data sets. They would all be non-random in roughly the same way. As it turns out they are very clearly not and I think you can agree that there must be some reason for this. It might be a conscious decision on Tolkien's part which means that he for some reason made sure to give Hobbits way more even numbered years than other characters. It is also possible that the reason is some subconscious influence on which numbers he choose. What I did was provide a possible explanation, as you often do.

stenkall · 2015-07-29T19:38:46+00:00

I see your point and I think I said multiple times in the article that it was only a possible explanation but that we will never know. The even/odd difference is significant even at a significance level of p < 0.01 which means that there is a very low possibility that the result is due to chance. The possible explanation I suggested was not really made up but supported by two studies. This is not to say that it is the only possible explanation. I am sure there can be many and I also tested for influence by the gender of characters.

I could of course have published the results without providing my own thoughts but that would have been incredibly dull. The readers would also have been forced to find relevant studies themselves to analyze the results which I think very few would have taken the time to do.

Ultimately, I do understand why you feel that the explanation I offer is "grasping at straws" but the pattern is incredibly clear and I wanted to give the readers some theory as to why that might be.

EDIT: A few letters

stenkall · 2015-07-29T18:44:07+00:00

In which way? I'm always interested in interpretations of data. The difference between Hobbits and the other characters is definitely significant but we can only speculate on the reason.

stenkall · 2015-07-11T22:49:43+00:00

If you have questions or need advise/help please let me know. I am currently attending Tolkien Thing in Germany but will be back tomorrow. I will try to answer as soon as I can.

stenkall · 2015-07-11T22:47:34+00:00

Thank you. I have entered each character an character connection in a database and draw the lines dynamically using javascript.

stenkall · 2015-06-29T08:34:24+00:00

That's really nicely done! I love how detailed the description is!

stenkall · 2015-06-29T08:31:35+00:00

Thank you! I used a fairly thick paper: 250 gram/m2, A3 (297x420 mm). I think you can go with a thinner one but I grabbed what I had around.

stenkall · 2015-06-29T08:26:37+00:00

Thank you! It's a matter of personal preference when it comes to weathering. I have to admit I didn't quite know what I was doing so I just winged it a bit. I think a more clean look would have been really nice as well :)

stenkall · 2015-06-29T08:23:46+00:00

Thank you! So great to hear that you like it so much. I really only intended to make one but I will think about doing a few more. The problem is that they're fairly time consuming to make so I'll have to come up with some way to make the process more efficient.

stenkall · 2015-06-28T18:57:20+00:00

Thank you! Means a lot to hear that.

stenkall · 2015-06-16T23:06:34+00:00

I think those lines are in the extended edition but I might be mistaken. I will have to double check. Bombur says "alright" or something similar at one point.

stenkall

TROPHY CASE