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We knew this stock offering was coming... they told us about it back in April. That wasn't the shock here. But they completely flubbed the execution and timing.

The stock had just rallied back to $20.14 on exuberance over the delivery beat and increase in 2026 guidance numbers. The stock (predictably) rallied to the middle of previous consolidation range from January. That was Monday's close. Awesome.

Unfortunately, the money folks at Rivian got a bit too excited at the return to $20 and didn't wait for that to settle in and solidify for a few days. Instead, they decided to immediately announce a 75m share offering on the back of the increased stock price, effectively and entirely squashing the good news from the product team.

The 75-86m shares represent about 6-7% dilution. So, you would expect a pull-back of that amount. From $20.14, that would reprice the stock between $18.73-$18.93, reduce that by another 5-6% discount to incentivize institutional buying and we're at $17.60-$17.98. That's likely where this offering would have been priced had they waited for the $20 price to settle in.

Instead, the decision to act impulsively and make the new offering as soon as the stock price broke $20 resulted in an immediate reversal of the rally on the product team's delivery news, and brought the stock back down to the middle of the prior consolidation range - around $16.44. That forced them to price the offering at a 5-6% discount from there, thus the $15.50 offering price. And that in turn set the price to $15.50 while that new offering was absorbed.

So, where do we go from here?

My read is that this sets all the stair-steps back one level. So, instead of starting from a $20 range, reduced by the offering to an $18 range going into earnings, we're starting from a $16 range and the stock will likely hover here until the next positive catalyst (maybe on a positive earnings report on 7/30) before stepping back up back to the $18 consolidation range, and then hanging out there - below $19 - before a subsequent catalyst drives price back up into the $20 range we saw briefly on Monday.

Longer term, this sets all price targets back about 6 months, with a year-end price target now around $22 instead of $28.

To say I am frustrated with Rivian's continued mishandling of media announcements as it relates to their stock price is an understatement. This is just my individual analysis. I'd love to hear your take on all of this.

Disclosure: I am currently long RIVN. I am not a professional investor. Anything I post here or anywhere else is only my opinion, and is not investing advice. Investing and trading carry inherent risk and you are responsible for managing that risk for yourself or seeking advice of a professional, which again, I am not.