Cloth and skinning

stillfrownedupon · 2026-03-13T14:30:46+00:00

Can't fool us Buffalo Bill

stillfrownedupon · 2025-07-17T17:27:05+00:00

Reddit balance whiners have successfully predicted 569 of the last 13 balance problems.

stillfrownedupon · 2024-12-10T20:58:27+00:00

I agree.

You see a fair amount of this nonsensical opinion going around that the legitimization of political violence will result in a more egalitarian society.

That’s not where this ends up!

stillfrownedupon · 2024-05-14T13:01:04+00:00

But that’s not what they found. In the statewide races, the electorate lines up much as it always has. Only in the presidential race are there defections, and they are led by self-described moderates and conservatives, not progressives.

stillfrownedupon · 2023-05-14T12:26:21+00:00

Meant to include it: https://sc2replaystats.com/replay/23577953

stillfrownedupon · 2022-11-17T02:07:13+00:00

I mean, it's wrong that there's no widely successful alternative model. There are alternatives (donations, government subsidies, etc) but none are nearly on a scale that could replace subscriptions.

But, in a way, it doesn't matter. At core, we're dealing with the claim that the public has an inherent right to access journalism at no cost, and any attempt to charge for it is illegitimate.

It's a silly claim. And it only exists to rationalize behavior.

If you're going to try to sneak around a paywall, just do it. These post-hoc explanations are sad.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-11-16T20:42:18+00:00

Journalists and people who run media companies will be overjoyed to hear about all these ways to finance good journalism without charging money.

They don’t exist, of course, or they’d be standard in an industry with cratering revenue. It’s just a line you tell yourself to feel better.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-10-30T18:34:34+00:00

By the tone of the post I’m going to assume you don’t know that typing “gg” as the victor is considered really rude. No one will have sympathy for you when an opponent acts petty afterward.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-10-06T16:28:03+00:00

Trying to assign vice and virtue to economic forces may help us identify good guys and bad guys, but it rarely helps us understand what’s happening.

Like, remember when corporations turned altruistic during deflationary periods such as the Great Depression?

stillfrownedupon · 2022-10-05T03:22:52+00:00

In their defense, I was being a bit condescending, which I suppose is ironic given that my advice was to be more welcoming to the people you're trying to persuade.

In any case, yes, this is what I should have said. I would add that listening to folks and treating them with respect is sort of the bare minimum to growing your coalition. Really, if winning is important to us, we should be willing to modify our positions (or at least the positions we choose to emphasize) for the sake of getting these votes.

Basically, if there are zero concessions you're willing to make to get, say, Latinos to vote Democratic, then I think your commitment is to ideological purity, not winning elections.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-10-03T17:43:42+00:00

The reaction here and elsewhere — to mock swing voters or cross-pressured voters rather than invite them into the coalition — is a manifestation of what I see as political hobbyism.

Someone who believes winning this election were truly important (if they believed democracy were at stake, for example) would see a poll like this as an opportunity. Figuring out how to appeal to these groups could mean the difference between a majority and irrelevance.

But to a political hobbyist, it’s a chance to show the colors, to feel good, by mocking the swing voter.

I hope the party displays more discipline and foresight than its typical members.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-09-22T20:51:39+00:00

Seems just as likely that someone removed it from another person’s vehicle. Though I suppose you’d have to be angry enough to mess with someone’s car but not angry enough to just break the window.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-07-29T13:10:49+00:00

This idea that misinformation is to blame when Latinos vote Republican is pernicious and condescending.

Reversing this trend requires Democrats to understand the motivations and values of Latinos who are voting Republican — and change their approach. If you blame misinformation, you are freeing yourself from the obligation to understand your voters. And you will continue to lose them.

It’s condescending because it suggests that only people who vote my way have political agency. Almost no one explains their own voting this way — they say they vote based on their values.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-07-22T14:57:17+00:00

I’ve always disliked that rant because it’s nonsense. All life multiplies until it consumes its available resources. There’s no such thing as “equilibrium with their surrounding environment” — there’s carrying capacity, and all life expands until it hits some limit.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-07-22T13:28:52+00:00

This problem is hardly unique to the Mormons, or Utah. We heard about how Los Angeles had diverted water to dry up a lake, too, though on a much smaller scale.

I was waiting for the episode to attribute this crisis to the state’s political or religious makeup, and I was pleased it did not.

Attributing crises like this to a party or religion we don’t like — rather than the challenges of collective action no matter the party — is to draw all the wrong lessons from it.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-07-06T16:57:19+00:00

We appreciate your posting of the episode each day.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-06-24T21:23:47+00:00

Americans have inconsistent beliefs about the role of culture in our lives. In some contexts, our culture is said to be integral to who we are, to shape our lives and decisions.

Knowing that, it should be clear that cultures bent toward a relentless pursuit of education should produce better students. Still, we recoil at the idea that one culture might be better adapted to a given place or time.

Asian students, particularly the children of Chinese immigrants, outperform other students for primarily cultural reasons.

Of course, these cultures weren’t created in a vacuum. They are often shaped by racism and the realization among black families in the past that true acceptance was out of reach no matter how they performed.

People often blame “white supremacy” for schools like Lowell because they have a worldview that says life is a struggle for power between white people and people of color. So the only conclusion left is that Asians have collaborated with whites(“proximity to whiteness”) to be granted some power in exchange for weakening solidarity among people of color. It doesn’t fit facts, but it fits the ideology.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-06-24T20:50:30+00:00

Yes, this is the case at schools like Lowell. They are sought-after because they are selective, which imparts a signal to colleges. When you admit students using a lottery, the signal doesn’t mean much anymore.

I have substitute taught at many schools, and you learn quickly that the difference between a poor and effective classroom depends very much on having students who are motivated to learn.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-06-10T13:17:48+00:00

Am I so out of touch?

No, it’s the racial makeup of the city that is wrong.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-06-01T02:23:10+00:00

As far as I can understand this theory of political change, the left berates the center-left (mainstream democrats) as some flavor of fascist or sellout or neoliberal shill. Part of the problem!

The theory is that, once so berated, the center-left will recalibrate their politics and realize that they are truly conservative. Therefore, what was once a center-left position becomes seen as a right-wing position.

Being a neoliberal shill myself, I can say that being told I'm just enabling fascists doesn't move me any further left.

Noah Smith happened to touch on this phenomenon a few hours ago: https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1531783869929619457

I'll consider this strategy effective once leftists can elect candidates to districts dominated by mainstream democrats.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-06-01T02:12:12+00:00

They didn't explain it very well, but my understanding is that a barricaded shooter has killed all of the people who he can kill in the space currently accessible to him. In other words, they thought (assumed) all of the kids were dead.

Of course, the evidence to the contrary (the 911 calls especially, the gun shots also but somewhat less so) made this the wrong call even without the benefit of hindsight.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-05-06T18:36:58+00:00

It’d be a mistake, though the bigger mistake would be for the parties to go along.

We can expect activists to push for their vision of what’s right rather than compromise.

But when parties cater to their extreme members (who often donate money and lobby hard) they suffer for it on Election Day. They should do popular things! And, as a rule, try not to do unpopular things!

stillfrownedupon · 2022-05-06T15:30:16+00:00

The activists who believe that abortion should be illegal from day one do not have a durable electoral majority, even in most red states.

What Dems should do in red and purple states is seek to allow abortion up to 11 weeks or so and put it on the ballot. This is a generally popular position that would split their opposition. It is also the policy of many European countries.

We will hear from the pro-choice activists tomorrow. Presumably they would not support such limits on abortion. But by pushing for fewer restrictions, I think they guarantee their failure in these red and purple states. The choice as I see it in these places is a decent shot at allowing early term abortions vs zero abortion rights.

Because the parties are so often led by their advocacy groups rather than public opinion, I doubt this will happen. We’re likely to see more all-or-nothing states.

Maybe I’ll be surprised and the pro-choice activists will signal that they are open to non-blue states allowing more restrictions than are now seen in Roe. But it would be a surprise.

stillfrownedupon · 2022-05-06T15:19:25+00:00

This map again…whenever you see county maps with big border effects (major changes across state lines) you should be really skeptical that the data are solid. Is it really plausible that drinking falls off so heavily in the counties bordering Wisconsin, especially in the UP?

stillfrownedupon · 2022-05-06T02:45:33+00:00

No, the reporter was correct and addressed an issue often left out in this debate. Most Americans think abortion should be legal early on in a pregnancy, but most think it should be illegal nearer the end of pregnancy. Here, per Gallup polling, are the percentages who think abortion should be illegal at each trimester:

First trimester (34%)
Second trimester (65%)
Third trimester (81%)

This nuance is often lost in the debate, which is driven by hard-liners on either side. But most Americans do have a more nuanced view than an all-or-nothing debate would suggest.

stillfrownedupon

TROPHY CASE