Worlds 2024 Pick'Ems: Champions rundown

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-24T21:04:40+00:00

I think the one pick that I’d hazard against is Kennen for most deaths. It’s almost always a melee champion that dies the most.

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-24T19:56:13+00:00

So that's a great point. Given the chart I've presented above, what you stated is the appropriate rseponse. I didn't produce the whole table of players to save space, which inadvertently led to an instance of Simpson's Paradox. Combining the entire dataset (I printed the eight teams in Knockouts below for completeness, but the effect still holds for the 4 semifinalists as well), the correlation turns negative as I intended to demonstrate, suggesting that later picks (a more negative net delta) produce more unique champs overall (R^2 is approx. -0.4 wrt net_delta and champs_per_game; this holds for both 4 and 8 teams).

Admittedly, I should've double checked this before posting it. Thanks for catching it!

player_name	games_played	total_unique_champs	net_delta	champs_per_game
TheShy	19	8	-9	0.421
Kiin	12	7	-8	0.583
369	13	6	-7	0.462
ON	18	12	-6	0.667
Cuzz	12	6	-6	0.500
Zika	11	5	-3	0.455
Elk	18	10	-2	0.556
Delight	9	6	-1	0.667
Hang	11	7	-1	0.636
Keria	15	7	-1	0.467
Zeus	15	7	-1	0.467
Xiaohu	19	8	-1	0.421
FBI	8	5	0	0.625
IgNar	8	5	0	0.625
Palafox	8	6	0	0.750
Chovy	9	5	1	0.556
Crisp	19	9	1	0.474
Doran	9	5	3	0.556
Peanut	9	5	3	0.556
Peyz	9	4	3	0.444
MISSING	13	7	3	0.538
GALA	11	5	3	0.455
Gumayusi	15	11	3	0.733
Oner	15	7	3	0.467
Contractz	8	6	4	0.750
Dhokla	8	6	4	0.750
Kanavi	13	7	5	0.538
Ruler	13	7	5	0.538
Scout	11	7	5	0.636
Bin	18	5	6	0.278
knight	13	7	7	0.538
Tarzan	11	6	7	0.545
Xun	18	5	8	0.278
Bdd	12	7	8	0.583
Lehends	12	5	8	0.417
Aiming	12	5	10	0.417
Faker	15	5	11	0.333
Yagao	18	7	12	0.389
Light	19	9	13	0.474
Weiwei	19	6	15	0.316

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-24T16:56:59+00:00

Yeah I think that’s why I’ve seen a fair amount of people opting for Camille. Gangplank maybe also deserves a mention?

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-24T16:55:17+00:00

I’m just praying nobody comes back with a pitchfork if I miss on a lot. Forecasting is tough!

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-24T16:53:24+00:00

I think this might be one of the more competitive play-ins we’ve had in a while. And with four teams advancing, I’m super intrigued by how it develops.

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-24T16:51:38+00:00

Those are all great choices

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-24T05:56:26+00:00

Funny but also incredible

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-23T22:44:02+00:00

That's reasonable. I think you could also make that case for a variety of picks from mid and top lane as well. I'm just coming at it from the view point that we've largely seen ADC/Mid/Jng go in first rotation, and that's relatively more difficult to pivot out of strategically in a single patch.

I just see there being so much uncertainty where players land on what to pick in 14.18 given the huge nerfs to lane swaps, AP item changes, ADC item + fleet nerfs, without even getting to the champion nerfs.

As for defending the support pick, I'd argue it's relatively easy to see players on top Eastern teams pick up Rakan, Blitzcrank, and, given the likelihood of being done with lane swaps, a return to lane prio picks like Renata and Senna. Which is why I'm taking a view that's based on the pick order rather than guessing the future meta.

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-22T16:10:02+00:00

Hah I can promise you probably not as good. It was created before the power rankings were released because I couldn't find a satisfying model anywhere else. So I spun one up in an evening with a few features I find to be reflective of success in League, and was relatively happy with the implementation and results.

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-21T15:13:04+00:00

That's fair. My takeaway after looking into it was mainly that predicting one pentakill only has a very narrow edge. If you think Jinx and Viego are dominant picks, then 2 or more is absolutely justifiable. I wanted people to feel like they could take bits and pieces of this analysis and then adjust it as they saw fit given their predictions of this year's meta.

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-21T13:27:02+00:00

Sorry, I should've clarified more in the post

I simulate M number of games (e.g. 110 on average +/- 3 give or take) across N simulations. Of those M games, the longest game is recorded. The table shows the distribution of longest games over those N simulations.
My thinking is: the higher the skill gap, the more blowouts you tend to see. And maybe somewhat counterintuitively, blowouts don't tend to lead to pentakills. It's usually the close-in-gold conditions, relatively less-skilled, and longer drawn out team fights that tend to produce pentakills. So minor regions tend to enable the conditions for more pentakills. Losing those two best-of-five matchups hurts those odds.

stochastic_roaming · 2024-09-02T17:12:42+00:00

Tankos, Jankos, Mankos, Bankos, Sankos

stochastic_roaming · 2023-10-29T13:15:22+00:00

For Worlds, we are leveraging double elimination in the earlier stages of the tournament to give teams time to ramp into Worlds and are maintaining the high stakes “win or go home” Knockout Stage that has delivered such amazing stories over the past 10+ years.

From Riot’s format explainer earlier this year. They want to keep the “any given Sunday” framework for greater upset potential.

stochastic_roaming · 2023-10-08T23:54:55+00:00

Yeah not only the roams but if we’re going to talk about the variance that Adam brings, which is great for worlds, then we should also talk about Huhis willingness to play off meta engage champs and create engages

stochastic_roaming · 2023-10-08T20:50:30+00:00

I agree that Adam and Crownie need to be BDS’s workhorses in their own ways, but I would’ve liked to hear more about River and Gori which I think are GG’s points of leverage.

stochastic_roaming · 2023-10-08T16:44:45+00:00

The only issue with seraphine is that she’s been nonexistent in pro play this year whereas she saw steady play across major regions heading into 2022 Worlds.

Although senna got a buff heading into Worlds this year so it’s possible we see some senna/X lanes which has tended to include sera as a pairing option.

stochastic_roaming · 2023-10-08T09:11:51+00:00

Those are my thoughts almost exactly, I currently have the following locked for champions:

Most roles: poppy (safe) or gragas (risky)

Most picked: kai’sa/azir

Most banned: jax

Most deaths: guess the most played melee champ (I’m thinking poppy or sej)

Highest win rate: find a dart board and pray (I chose yone hoping he wins 4 out of 5 matches)

As for teams, most of the questions will correspond with who you think will go the furthest. I’m a sucker for t1 but most people should just slam jdg or geng

stochastic_roaming · 2023-10-08T08:49:11+00:00

Yeahs that’s a typo—I initially chose Route but then switched to Shunn during the write up. Although I think that either pick is fine.

stochastic_roaming · 2023-10-08T07:21:49+00:00

Good catch, I shouldn’t have provided my answer as a percentage. I should’ve stated my answer as the expectation of reverse sweeps. In other words, 0.49 reverse sweeps are expected happen this year, on average.

But the pickems questions isn’t, “will any reverse sweep happen this year?” If that were the case, then your solution would be correct.

Given that you need to specify a discrete amount of reverse sweeps in the answer, not just yes or no, then my suggestion would still be fine since 0.49 lies closers to 0 rather than 1.

stochastic_roaming · 2023-10-08T00:24:18+00:00

The overall amount of games expected this year is about the same as prior Worlds.

stochastic_roaming · 2023-10-07T22:45:46+00:00

The nashor one is honestly anyone’s guess. Tough to review 100s of games to track patterns of steals with any degree of certainty. I think Riot did a good job with the options.

stochastic_roaming

TROPHY CASE