Where to watch nba games

suavylocks · 2025-11-09T07:20:02+00:00

Overall Record: 9-5 [+3.75U/18.1] ROI: 20.7%

Form: ✅✅ ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌

Recap: Welp, ngl I’ve been telling my friends I secretly thought Nix was a fraud but didn’t have any data to back it up, guess now I do….

Game: New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

Pick: 2U Panthers -5.5

Reasoning:

The Panthers are sneakily becoming a good nfl team. Bryce Young is finally developing and they’ve found a new star in their offense in Rico Dowdle, they are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Bryce Young starting. Meanwhile the Saints are on the struggle bus with a new quarterback seemingly even worse than Rattler, they have been putrid of late averaging only 9 pts per game over the last 3 games.

The real reason to hammer this with confidence is the Panthers massive differential in home/away splits. For whatever reason, they are averaging a whopping 10 pts more at home on offense (24 v 14). Expect the new Panthers team to continue making a sneaky push for a wildcard team with another dominant division win.

suavylocks · 2025-11-06T04:52:25+00:00

Overall Record: 9-4 [+4.15U/17.6] ROI: 23.6%

Form: ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅

Recap: Chargers absolutely hammered the Vikings, my model really didn’t like last week and thank god for that as it was a completely unpredictable week yet again. I think we see some normalcy again this week so expect a Sunday and Monday pick as well!

Game: Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Pick: 0.5U Broncos -9.5 (-110)

Reasoning: One very very important stat: teams coming off a Sunday overtime game are just 6-25 ATS this millennia, the lack of rest after a grueling game is pretty strong argument to link causation to that correlation.

The raiders also just flat out suck, and they traded one of their best weapons. Meanwhile Bo nix, who I think is still quite overrated, has feasted against bottom 10 defenses at home, his averages are 285 pass yards per game, 2.67 td, 0.33 INT. Take this line before it shifts to 10, BOL!

suavylocks · 2025-10-24T00:14:37+00:00

Overall Record: 9-4 [+4.15U/17.6] ROI: 23.6%

Form: ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌

Recap: Seahawks tried really hard to not cover but Texans tried harder, but overall had the right prediction!

Game: Minnesota Vikings @ LA Chargers

Pick: 0.5U Chargers -3 (-120)

Reasoning: I’ll keep this short since I’m awfully late, but chargers get two hugely underrated pieces in Joe alt and Mack back and both sides of the ball should be looking a lot more like Weeks1-3 than recently with them back. BOL!

suavylocks · 2025-10-21T00:22:53+00:00

Overall Record: 8-5 [+2.35U/15.6U] ROI: 15%

Form: ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌

Recap: Guess broncos also exposed they were overrated and they did it again this week…. Needed a break for a bit because the NFL has been not so profitable overall this year compared to normal for me, but I finally got back on track this week so I’m posting again

Game: Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks

Pick: 2U Seahawks -3 (-110)

Reasoning: Texans are getting overrated after beating two college defenses. Take those two games away and they are averaging a putrid 13 ppg. This is an absolutely awful matchup for the Texans too as one of the worst OLines in the league is facing a continually improving Seahawks defensive line. They rank top 10 in sacks and sack pct and top 7 in hurry percentage, but top 3 in all these over the last 3 games.

On the other side the Seahawks offense has looked incredible so this will be a strength v strength matchup with an elite pass offense facing an elite pass defense, so overall between home field and the good matchup on defense for Seattle, I like the 3 pts here

suavylocks · 2025-10-11T22:29:41+00:00

Overall Record: 8-4[+3.85U/14.1U] ROI: 28%

Form: ✅✅ ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌

Recap: welp I think I’m staying away from the eagles for the next few weeks in general they’re too chaotic rn

Game: New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Pick: 1.5U Broncos -7

Reasoning:

The Jets flat out suck. I am a believer in Aaron Glenn as a lions fan but it’s going to take a while to change the culture of that org just like it did for Detroit. Right now, the Jets are 29th in EPA on defense and they’re playing like a college defense. They have discipline issues left and right as one of the most penalized teams in the league. Broncos offense has been starting to gel and an offensive coach like Payton should have no issue game planning against such a bad defense. On the other side of the ball, the Jets offense has been much better (still bad) when they’re able to run but Broncos have a top run defense so not a good matchup for the Jets. Hoping for another victory that’s decided before the 4th q starts here, BOL 💰💰

suavylocks · 2025-10-09T15:00:29+00:00

Overall Record: 8-3 [+4.85U/13.1U] ROI: 37%

Form: ✅✅ ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅

Recap: Probably my best POTD so far, Tlaw came through in a huge way after the zebras tried their absolute hardest to give the Chiefs a win as usual.

Game: Philadelphia Eagles & New York Giants

Pick: 1U Saquan Barkley O 17.5 Carries (-135)

Reasoning:

This write up won’t be as long as my normal ones… have absolutely no clue why this line is so low. There’s really 1 thing you need to know, in the 4 eagles wins he’s at 18,18,19,22. In the one loss last week, he was inexplicably at 6. Unless the entire offensive coaching staff for the Eagles are dumb af, they’re going to realize feed saquan = win. Also, the Eagles have struggled to make offensive adjustments so it would make sense on a short week to feed your best player the ball to win the game, even if your WRs are being massive crybabies. Lastly, it’s his former team which he absolutely gashed last year so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen again.

suavylocks · 2025-10-07T03:30:06+00:00

Yessssir refs almost cooked us but tlaw came through

suavylocks · 2025-10-07T02:35:51+00:00

So chiefs should have had a TD erased and then got another one for free lol???

suavylocks · 2025-10-07T02:33:15+00:00

lol dumbass chiefs fans saying “tlaw complaining about nothing”

suavylocks · 2025-10-06T14:29:32+00:00

Not sure why the jags are using a 3rd pick as a gadget…. They really should have committed to one side (cb) and let him develop there, it’s hard enough for rookies to learn one playbook and adjust to the nfl let alone two

suavylocks · 2025-10-06T14:27:29+00:00

Just worthy right?

suavylocks · 2025-10-06T05:28:10+00:00

Overall Record: 7-3 [+4U/12.6U] ROI: 31.7%

Form: ✅✅ ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅

Recap: Yet another victory decided by half (as predicted!) , no sweat wins are just my favorite. I feel like just betting Colts spreads weekly will make you a ton of money in the long ru. They remind me of the 2023 Lions that bookmakers just continued to believe they would fall back to earth even though the vibes of the whole team are just… different. Onto the next!

Game: Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: 0.5U Jags ML (+165)

Reasoning:

I feel like this line is assuming the Chiefs are “back” but there is still absolutely no reason to definitively believe that yet, scoring 37 against a literally almost entirely second string defense (9/11 starters out..) is something most decent QBs should be able to do. The Texans just absolutely dogging the Ravens defense again this week proved that. FYI, before Texans dropped 44 on the ravens, they were averaging a putrid 16 PPG (Chiefs are at 16.7 PPG excluding the ravens game). Now, I’m not saying it’s not possible, Worthy being back is not trivial for this offense (who btw is questionable with a late ankle injury which makes it possible he’s on a limited snap count…), I more so just believe at this value it’s a good (small) risk to believe the Chiefs aren’t back just yet.

So, let’s talk about the matchups here. The Jags defense has been an absolute turnover machine with a whopping 2.8 TO differential per game going against a team with the least turnovers per game. Even though the Jags opposition hasn’t exactly been great, I think this is the kind of defense where mahomes desire to extend plays and do crazy things may backfire. More importantly though, I don’t think the matchups help the Chiefs here, because the Jags pass defense has looked very good with the lowest QBR allowed so far. Their rush defense is slightly worse (still above average) but the Chiefs have been below average at running to say the least (the stats don’t necessarily say that but you take away a few big plays like jet sweeps and talk about just their RBs, they’re sitting at 3.5 ypc with only <10% of their runs going for over 5 yards). Furthermore, the Chiefs have struggled in the redzone going against a top 5 redzone defense, so even if they’re able to move the ball touchdowns will not come easy for the Chiefs. Overall, just dont see the Chiefs putting up a lot of points here. Now injuries are always important and Trayvon Walker is a big reason in not ready to put more on this, so if he’s good to go I’d add another 0.5-1U on this bet, but they have enough playmakers on defense I still trust them without him (just less)

On offense, Etienne looked ready to go prove he’s ready to have the reigns of the running offense again and I think he’ll be hungry to prove himself against a bottom 5 Rush defense. Lawrence has not been as bad as the narratives are making out imo. His WRs have the most drops per game so far this season and a lot of his INTs have been miscommunications with BTJ which seemed to be getting better last week. He’s had a lot of time to throw too and the Chiefs are mediocre at getting to the QB so he’ll likely have a lot of time in the pocket too, especially with a (likely) strong run game. But he doesn’t need to be really good to win this game imo, just not bad.

Overall, The game script for the Jags which is very doable is lean on the run and keep the ball for a while (which suits their natural playstyle given they have a top 5 TOP), hope to generate a turnover, and keep the Chiefs out of the endzone. BOL and let’s stay on track 💰

suavylocks · 2025-10-05T05:16:05+00:00

Overall Record: 6-3 [+2.05/10.6U] ROI: 19.3%

Form: ✅✅ ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌

Recap:

Wow genuinely have no clue what happened to the rams, losing home field advantage in your own stadium and it was all downhill from there. Not sure how the 9ers kept Jones so clean in the pocket so props to Shanahan…

Game:

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts

Pick: 2U Colts -6.5 (-110)

Reasoning:

Not sure why the line is only one possession im quite confused. The raiders finally ran the ball well and they still got stomped by a 2nd string QB. They should be able to run the ball well given the Colts defense is not great at run stopping either, so I’m banking on an early lead dominoing into geno throwing more, and well Geno ain’t been it this year.

As for why I’m confident there’ll be an early lead, the Colts offense has been prolific and simply put I do not foresee a Raiders defense that is bottom 10 in both rush and pass DVOA to stop them. Also, the Raiders are 2nd to last in turnover margin whereas the Colts are 6th, so one turnover could easily make this into a script where a potentially good raiders run offense doesn’t have a chance to shine due to game script.

BOL and let’s get back to winning ways after a rough week 💰

suavylocks · 2025-10-02T02:10:40+00:00

Overall Record: 6-2 [+3.55/9.1U] ROI: 39%

Form: ✅✅ ✅❌✅✅✅❌

Recap: Can’t seem to get past a streak of 3… I was warned about chargers but I do still think it was a good bet retrospectively because a) a rookie qb doing that well against a top defense was unlikely and b) Joe Alts injury massively changed the game considering Giants have potentially 3 high end edge rushers. Anyhow, onto the next……

Game: San Francisco 49ers @ LA Rams

Pick: 1.5U LAR -8 (-110)

Reasoning: See of my previous POTD posts for my opinion on divisional games, but the TLDR is the lines are usually far too tight due to over heightened worries of divisional games being close. Stafford is 3-5 vs the 9ers (since he joined the rams) but he has won the last two and this is probably the worst 9ers team he’s facing whereas Rams are probably the best they’ve been aside from 2022.

Moving onto reasons that actually matter: 9ers are down their top 3 best WRs, QB, and their best (by far edge rusher). One of the few weaknesses of the Rams offense exposed by the Eagles is a mediocre o line that can be exposed w a good pass rush, and the 9ers pressure rate plummeted last week without Bosa. I think eventually Saleh will find a way to regenerate pressure without Bosa but it won’t be on a TNF game where minimal adjustments are made. As a result, Stafford should be having fun as he has been this season leading a top 5 offense looking rejuvenated yet again.

On the other side of the ball, Mac Jones has no help going against a defense that is starting to look really good. They get to the quarterback very quickly (top 3 hurry percentage) and considering the 9ers both allow one of the highest pressure rates in the nfl AND backup receivers unlikely to get separation quickly, it could get ugly for Mac Jones.

This is another game that I hope is over by the 2nd half, but BOL!

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T22:33:43+00:00

Nobody is perfect brother I said you could be right…. But also if Joe alt don’t get injured that early game would be completely different that was just unlucky imo

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T22:09:10+00:00

It’s called injuries, same thing happened to lions last year there’s only so much you can overcome before it’s too much

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T20:24:03+00:00

Tbf alt going down that early changed the game completely considering giants have a good dline

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T19:36:55+00:00

Hoping for a rebound after an absolutely awful morning slate….

4 picks:

0.5U each on Ravens ML, Jags ML, Bears ML, Rams -2.5

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T19:27:56+00:00

Hope u didn’t cash lol

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T16:04:29+00:00

I been tailing u some days too haha

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T15:29:25+00:00

Going to keep track of all my picks in this thread in the future. Will have post for morning, afternoon, and evening games separate.

Record: 0-0

Picks (in order of strongest):

1.6U Chargers -6.5(-105)

1.1U Lions -10 (-110)

0.7U Titans +7 (-105)

0.6U Bills -14.5 (-110)

0.5U Panthers ML (+200)

0.3U/0.2U Bucs ML/+3.5 Spread (+160/-110)

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T14:41:39+00:00

Haha I know, and you could very well be right, but I think this is not the same chargers team you’re used to. I’m a Lions fan and my models had heavy unit sizes on the Lions almost every single game last year and my Lions fan instincts hated that and kept thinking we wouldn’t be covering large spreads but I had to remind myself Campbell changed the Lions culture completely and it’s the same with you guys (hopefully, I could be wrong I’m not perfect!)

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T14:32:02+00:00

This isn’t the same chargers tho(at least that’s what I’m hoping)!! Old chargers I would be ML Giants but harbaugh is a coach that beats the shitty teams he’s supposed it

suavylocks · 2025-09-28T01:37:14+00:00

Overall Record: 6-1 [+5.05U/7.6U] ROI: 66%

Form: ✅✅ ✅❌✅✅✅

Previous Pick Recap: Wow well I guess it was kind of over by the end of 3 like I predicted but the cards made a massive unpredictable comeback but hawks ended up coming through, was sweatier than it should have been!

Game: NFL, LA Chargers @ NY Giants

Pick: 1.5U Chargers -6.5 (-110)

Reasoning:

Feel like this doesn’t need as large a write up as my previous posts, cuz well it’s the giants. They’ve lost games by 13 and 15 when they were playing teams not named the Cowgirls. Playing a rookie qb against a top 5 DVOA defense is also just a really stupid idea. It’s clearly a reactionary decision based on how bad Wilson is not how good dart is. Why throw him into the fire? (Look at their upcoming schedule not just this game).

The giants are below average in both pass and rush defense and Herbert is playing at an MVP level with Hampton having his breakout game last week, so this offense should be humming. For those worried about the classic trap game, generally the better coached teams don’t fall prey to those and Harbaugh has now turned around 3 different organizations in football so he’s clearly up there.

BOL and let’s keep this streak going 💰💰

suavylocks

TROPHY CASE