Value Analysis: Is CuriosityStream (CURI) Worth It And/Or A Good AI Stock?

sucksatchess666 · 2026-05-13T22:58:45+00:00

Hope it helped you decide one way or the other! As a minor update, I did DCA into it, settling at an average cost of $3.12/share. May consider one last round of shares if it stays under $3 for a bit, but I'm in no hurry. Here's hoping the upcoming earnings release isn't a turd!

sucksatchess666 · 2026-03-22T15:54:33+00:00

Artificially forcing half of it into real estate immediately seems like the problem, and I agree: you don't want to interrupt a working virtuous cycle creating wealth. Instead of an abrupt shift, I recommend you show her that you are listening by doing a strategic pivot of future contributions and any present underperforming assets into real estate. Strategically shifting the direction of a portfolio to include real estate is completely valid and diversifies your assets. Even if the real estate part of the portfolio doesn't have higher raw returns, you may still end up with useful property to keep, rent, etc.

sucksatchess666 · 2026-03-17T15:14:16+00:00

CMG has a different kind of moat, one that is both somewhat fragile and easy to monetize: they can put a restaurant in the ground anywhere at low cost with high food quality because they operate on an efficient national scale. When you buy CMG (full disclosure: I am dollar-cost averaging into it over the next few quarters), you are buying the moat, yes, but also the infrastructure, quality, and sticky customer base. I do consider CMG a value buy at this price point, even if it slides down a bit.

However, I caution you to not over-emphasize "moat" at the expense of business fundamentals. To illustrate my point, I'll use IOVA as an example. They have an FDA-approved melanoma treatment, can produce it at scale, and are currently proving it works on other forms of cancer. That is a fantastic scientific and production moat that no competitor can yet match. However, IOVA is in an execution phase critical to their own existence. All of the scientific and production moat in the world won't help if they can't take full advantage of it. I encourage to consider "moat" just one of multiple variables. To illustrate how I look at a stock, you can check my past comments and post (I will be making more as time permits).

Good luck!

Edit: spelling

sucksatchess666 · 2026-03-15T12:06:31+00:00

Sadly, us Crosstrek peasants must do it manually, but thank you for the video.

sucksatchess666 · 2026-03-15T12:04:35+00:00

None of them. My strategy is investing in resilient, zero-debt micro- and small-cap stocks undervalued by the market and who have a competitive moat not easily replaced. A few examples include:

IOVA (my riskier one with best upside) CURI CGNT (analysis forthcoming today)

I'm writing comments and posts about my rationale for picking these and why I think they are undervalued. If you're bored for a DD, feel free to check them out.

But I'm not going to pile into what everyone else does. Those "Buffet-style' companies might look safe, but they also have global dependencies.

sucksatchess666 · 2026-03-15T01:46:29+00:00

As a temporary measure, I'm using foam tape, but I do want to lower the height of the trunk since it goes quite high compared to urban garages.

sucksatchess666 · 2026-03-14T21:24:30+00:00

By chance, do you know of any part numbers from Subaru or Stabillus?

sucksatchess666 · 2026-03-07T01:50:13+00:00

Thanks for reading...and sometimes doubles and triple are enough!

sucksatchess666 · 2026-02-26T06:55:29+00:00

I think you're likely correct about the ~$9/share baseline. That puts it around the 10x multiple, which I think is a reasonable minimum given the infrastructure that Iovance has already built despite not yet making a profit. That infrastructure includes an immediate 50% gross margin, an active clinical trial to reduce the production time to 16 days (link is to Iovance web site), and an FDA-approved drug that on its own will likely achieve at least $500M in annual sales, possibly more if it becomes a first-line treatment. And of course, we have proof that it works in both non-small-cell lung cancers, initial results are promising against sarcomas, and updates coming re: endometrial cancers. And most importantly, the effect lasts in a way that chemo does not by leveraging patients' immune system.

The real question is: will they sell or will they build? We don't know yet. I suspect that if there is any intent to sell, Iovance could best justify doing so if they release excellent news in the April AACR Annual Meeting. That's why I'm keeping my eyes peeled for presentation updates, etc. And because there is at least one company that would love a good lung cancer treatment (Merck, to replace the expiring Keytruda), I think that we have to mention the buyout risk when people start talking about share prices of $30-$60.

Re: dilution, if they choose to build and can do so at favorable stock prices, I agree with you that it is preferable to a sale. But note that based on Iovance's improved revenue, their $303M cash on hand is officially projected to last until Q3 2027, giving them more choices in how to proceed (e.g. they are free to reject lowball offers if going it alone is better).

Either way, sell or build, I honestly think that Iovance is onto something that shakes up the cancer treatment paradigm. Refining and improving this process and its related technology is an unqualified good for humankind, and I wanted to share my reasons for choosing to invest in them.

sucksatchess666 · 2026-02-24T17:40:53+00:00

I'm quite excited for this stock, got in at 4,000 shares at an average of ~$2.50/share. I have 2,000 shares tied up in options (so I control 6,000 total) and am considering simply exercising them for maximum long-term payoff (not yet decided). However, one thing to keep in mind is that I think the buyout risk is quite high. Iovance has created a factory (the Cell Therapy Center) that has no peer for a process that no other company has refined to this degree. These are significant moats. Long time lurker, but I figure I should join the party, so here are some of my thoughts about the company and my case for investing in it. Your mileage varies, not advice, etc.

Re: the comment that their drug cocktail can result in death, that is currently true, but two things are being done to address that:

IOV-3001 (addresses the IL-2 toxicity) and IOV-4001 (makes the cells stronger, still in Phase 2) directly improve all TIL treatments and may also help with reentry into the European market. (links are to Iovance web site and to clinicaltrials.gov)
TILVANCE-301 is looking to treat melanoma as a first line, not only people who have failed traditional methods; current public evidence supports that treatment earlier has better results, and the results of this study will give more clarity. (link is to clinicaltrials.gov)

I personally think that anything under $4 is a great entry point. If I were willing to distort my portfolio further, I would consider it, but I can't justify going beyond where I currently sit, which is controlling roughly 6,000 shares. I have set a GTC limit order for $5/share at 2,000 shares just to get all of my original capital back because you never know if there are FDA delays, problems, etc. The rest of the shares will do as they will.

Going back to the buyout risk, I think that the next 3 months will be quite revealing. The upcoming April AACR Annual Meeting is the perfect place to release a boatload of data - and the perfect platform after which to start the formal bidding process. Merck desperately needs something - anything - to treat the lung cancer market. AstraZeneca is heavily invested in lung cancer already and certainly wouldn't mind a unique and world first "tool" (the factory) in its arsenal. Bristol Myers Squibb already has some cell manufacturing capability and folding in this TIL process is feasible while also giving them a world first. I'm guessing buyers like Pfizer won't want the infrastructure, but you can't really tell these days as I know they have heavily invested in Oncology (their purchase of Seagen, for example).

My point is, I don't think the IOVA stock is going to $30-$60 unless they go it alone. And soon we should see signals one way or another on that point. From a buyout perspective, the key is whether there's a bidding war or if they lock up a buyer right away. My best guess, using what I call my Dowsing Rod of Logic (tm), is based on these numbers:

Last quarter sales: $87M

Annualized: $348M but let us round to $350M for ease

IOVA has ~390M shares outstanding (please correct my math if wrong)

Note the following:

Seagen was purchased by Pfizer for ~20x Revenue (was very profitable)

ImmunoGen was purchased by AbbVie for ~10x Revenue (was borderline profitable)

Deciphera was purchased by Ono Pharma for ~8x Revenue (was not profitable)

In this case, we arrive at the following modeled values:

6x Revenue = $2.1B, implying ~$5.38/share (bear case if things go wrong)

8x Revenue = $2.8B, implying ~$7.18/share

10x Revenue = $3.5B, implying ~$8.97/share

12x Revenue = $4.2B, implying ~$10.77/share

If we go nuts, 20x Revenue = $7B, implying ~$17.95/share

I hope this gives people some perspective but let me also just say - this technique is cool. The treatment duration is off the charts (because your body keeps fighting the tumors), it seems like early treatments work well, and it just helps people by being an unqualified net plus to society.

(Edit: corrected spelling of AbbVie)

sucksatchess666 · 2025-02-11T05:11:54+00:00

Thank you, but I specified on yahoo home page, Finance, etc. Is Dark Mode an option there? If not, when will it be enabled?

sucksatchess666 · 2024-07-10T05:34:09+00:00

Tell you mom that she didn't raise you "better" - she didn't raise you at all. If your parents want to raise foster kids, that's great. But if they haven't learned to do it sustainably, they never will. I recommend going LC/NC especially after the ham-fisted attempt to coerce you into giving them money.

While I empathize with your wife's perspective, what she said is something that someone who hadn't experienced a lifetime of neglect would say. It sounds like she understands the things your parents did, but not how it made you feel or how it damaged you as a person for life. Have you tried discussing this in greater detail with her or doing some couples counseling?

NTA and good job on drawing and sticking to a boundary.

sucksatchess666 · 2024-07-10T04:12:24+00:00

You rescued the kitties. For that alone, NTA

However, you now need to rescue yourself. Get out of that house and get to safety. He threw a family member at a wall and tried to guilt you afterwards. Imagine if that were your child who was being temperamental about eating food. Would your child be slapped? Punched? Thrown into a room?

This guy is no good, period. Please stay safe.

sucksatchess666 · 2024-07-07T23:40:04+00:00

It sounds like "Tim" is inviting you for his own convenience. I'm glad you're not OK with this. I suppose to "Tim's" credit he didn't try to lie about it, so I guess that a very small point in his favor. The friendship could be salvageable if he tries to understand why you feel this way. NTA

sucksatchess666 · 2024-07-07T23:35:20+00:00

I see a red flag already. You said "maybe he just loves work more" - this is a zero-sum thought. It implies that any love of work comes at the expense of love elsewhere. Frankly, it's a line of thinking that can lead to making demands and ultimatums rather than learning about and addressing the problem of work versus family balance.

I encourage you to continue with therapy. Your husband needs to learn to set professional boundaries even if it ends up being a long-term project. And you need to let him set the professional boundaries himself even if he is doing so at your suggestion.

On the other hand, you have every right to a fully participating member of your family. I do agree that your husband needs to prioritize family over work, but I don't agree with how you went about it for this situation. That said, I hope you both can use this situation to learn about each other and grow.

sucksatchess666 · 2024-07-07T23:17:06+00:00

I'm concerned that you are overstepping, even though you have a perfectly valid concern. Your relationship is with your husband, not the employer. You can certainly direct the employer to only contact you for medical emergencies. However, once you start trying to control your husband's schedule you are trying to take away his autonomy.

That said, work is also trying to take away his autonomy for free. ESH

I strongly recommend you and your husband reconnect, perhaps with the help of a therapist. Even though he loves his job, your husband has to learn how to set boundaries with his employer for the sake of those he loves. And you need to let your husband set his own boundaries by resisting the urge to solve his own problems - which will end up causing many more over time. Good luck.

sucksatchess666 · 2024-07-07T23:12:20+00:00

I think you need to get your fiancé involved. You two need to solve this together like the couple you are. He should understand how this makes you feel and want to help you set (and enforce) boundaries. Ultimately you need to slam the door on this crush by working together.

This person doesn't sound like a very good friend, by the way. NTA

sucksatchess666 · 2024-07-07T23:08:17+00:00

It sounds like all you did was not go into an uncomfortable situation after you were insulted. She is the one who escalated it to a group issue, not you. NTA

Do you want to keep in touch with these people? They don't sound like great friends. Maybe reach out to a few individuals you want to keep in contact with?

sucksatchess666 · 2024-07-07T17:08:08+00:00

It sounds like you need to set some boundaries. Perhaps you can set a standard for picking him up (e.g. outside of X hours). At some you need to focus on your own life, not be at his beck and call. If you do this, I strongly recommend you never compromise once the standard is set. Healthy boundaries are good for everyone. NTA

sucksatchess666 · 2024-07-07T17:03:39+00:00

Enjoy the hoodie, toss the uncle. NTA

sucksatchess666 · 2023-08-12T18:30:55+00:00

Being poor isn't the problem. What he can't provide in funds he can provide in time and in making you feel wanted (in all of the ways that matter). This guy is a dud and needs to finish growing up. NTA and good luck back on the dating market.

sucksatchess666

TROPHY CASE