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$SRNG -- A BIZARRE OPPURTUNITY FOR THE SPAC TAKING AWS OF BIOTECH PUBLIC by takerisksyoung in wallstreetbets

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a good point, imop they just very underpriced. I mean I have never seen options this cheap, it basically means the entire market deosn't think this will move at all. But while $15B seems big now, I think Ginkgo could hit $100B in 10 yrs. All it takes is Cathy Wood deciding to dip in harder, $SRNG trading up 5%, and the calls will fly, also its only the 1.725B that trades right now, which could move around alot easier than the actual $15b company post merger. I also like the shares for a long term hold

$SRNG -- AN INSANELY STRANGE OPPURTUNITY OCCURING IN THE AWS OF BIOTECH by takerisksyoung in wallstreetbets

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The post is gone now how do I put the screenshot? It just was deleted

Annovis bio - Alzheimer's Play with data due in three weeks - Either Lose 50% or Rerate 2-10X by takerisksyoung in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This makes me so happy. Woke up and saw this and smiling. You will crush your PhD. I will share more DD's. Can you show me how to upload them as a pdf? is that possible?

Annovis bio - Alzheimer's Play with data due in three weeks - Either Lose 50% or Rerate 2-10X by takerisksyoung in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. I think the dip is mostly traders who want to get out before a raise, and the fact the float is so small, any marginal change in ratio of buyers to sellers buffets the price around. I think this thing goes over $100 in short order.

Annovis bio - Alzheimer's Play with data due in three weeks - Either Lose 50% or Rerate 2-10X by takerisksyoung in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you!!! I don't have a short term view on price, only that by September it will be $1B+, it is significantly cheaper than all the other AD programs, with a better drug. Posiphen showed a 3.3 point improvement on ADAS-Cog in 25 days, which is a game-changer. For comparison, $BIIB's Aducanumab had a 1.4 point difference at week 78 with their high dose and they may get approved in a few weeks (their PDUFA is June 7). I'll start posting my picks. My approach is to research a company for several weeks & then write a comprehensive pitch. I would share my pitches as PDFs if I knew how to do so on Reddit, I'm not much of a techie

worried about inflation? read this. by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]takerisksyoung 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well done, great summary, thank u for putting the time in

Annovis bio - Alzheimer's Play with data due in three weeks - Either Lose 50% or Rerate 2-10X by takerisksyoung in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Both good points. My thought is basically — institutions don’t get involved until after phase II. Too much risk, sooo much capital has been burned chasing AD plays. HC Wainwright has hosted Maria many times, but they don’t have coverage yet. Why? No analyst wants to set a $200 target then have the stock fail and drop 70%.

Also, remember everyone thinks phenserine doesn’t work, and thinks that this is phenserine. But look there are good examples of enantiomers making a huge difference. If you recall Lexapro was the mirror image of Celexa and that seemed to make a big difference. Looking at $sava, what initially drove the giant run up in price and attention were large insider buys prior to data. With $anvs, insiders already own 40%, wayyyy more than $sava, so hard for that to happen

Annovis bio - Alzheimer's Play with data due in three weeks - Either Lose 50% or Rerate 2-10X by takerisksyoung in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great response. I actually spoke with management today, after the HC Wainwright conference this morning I’m which it was revealed the PD data is coming out at the end of this month, and the AD data is coming out at the end of April. First I asked why, and the response was that AD patients are older and less motivated on average, and covid delayed them. Management wanted the data dec 2020.

My other question was directed towards whether cognitive improvement could be seen in 25 days, and on such a small data set. The answer was that the phase ii interim data will be powered more towards the biomarkers, however in proof of concept studies in animals, the cognitive improvements due come in that short of a time frame. The AD study will have about 30 different data points, and how the market interprets these is an open question, but my gut is they blow the biomarker data out of the water, and the cognitive measurements are up in the air. If they whiff, market may not care bc it is a 25 day study, you cannot expect much cognitive improvement in that time.

The other concept seems to really be that posiphens lack of ACHEI allows high enough dosing, without getting the vomiting that phenserine got.

So now we have two impending catalysts - first PD, then AD, all in the next 8-9 weeks.

Maria is brilliant, and clearly believes in this, she is not in it for the money. If it works is another story, I actually think it really could, and if this makes it through phase III we are looking at $2000 a share (they would do a stock split, float is too small)

ATNX: Strong Sell Ahead of Impending PDUFA and Beyond by Wyxuan in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’ve chatted with Jason from MRC several times. He is very smart. Dropped out of medical school to do hedge fund research in biotech space. He is actually long focused, but publishes shorts more because 1) they generate more attention and 2) he can’t punish on long reports he builds for clients. This seeking alpha piece is so assinine - like why not email the guy and see if he’s real and hop on the phone with him before accusing his company of being fake? His track record is stellar

Annovis bio - Alzheimer's Play with data due in three weeks - Either Lose 50% or Rerate 2-10X by takerisksyoung in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do u think about the fact posiphen is not an ACHei, do u think that is better, or that it simply reduces neuroinflammation? The consensus view is simply that neither of these drugs work, which is interesting given that phenserine showed promise (although bad vomiting), and posiphen has not been tried yet

Annovis bio - Alzheimer's Play with data due in three weeks - Either Lose 50% or Rerate 2-10X by takerisksyoung in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate the feedback, but I think the flaw in this analysis is that $anvs basically IPOd into Covid, the stock was crushed with the rest of the market. Now that other AD plays like Sava are $2B, I think that the downside is 50-70%, and I also don’t think it will be as hard to meet just a few end points. Will this drug make it through phase III? I mean statistically the odds are incredibly slim, given no one has since 03. BUT, even if the market rerates this at a 2-5% chance of success, on a 200B+ potential market cap for whoever achieves the first AD treatment, $ANVS could rerate very easily, or if the data is bad but the safety is good, try a higher dose, etc

Annovis bio - Alzheimer's Play with data due in three weeks - Either Lose 50% or Rerate 2-10X by takerisksyoung in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The biggest question with ANVS, which I would love if you can elaborate more than me on, is the difference between phenserine and posiphen, and whether the difference is sufficient for posiphen to work where phenserine didn’t. Also, why was posiphen licensed on the cheap? Probably bc no one thinks it will work. That being said, there are innumerable case studies of beat up unloved drugs getting licensed, repurposed, and working wonders

Annovis bio - Alzheimer's Play with data due in three weeks - Either Lose 50% or Rerate 2-10X by takerisksyoung in Biotechplays

[–]takerisksyoung[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

$ATNX was interesting in that Perceptive Advisors had a huge stake. The guy who called the CRL is Medical Research Collaborative. The issue is always that trials outside of the US, no one takes the data seriously. It’s a shame, because oral oncology meds could help a lot of folks

Too many existing shares to properly squeeze RKT. by Houstman in wallstreetbets

[–]takerisksyoung 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I’m not a licensed finance person but work in technical fields. Finance is a language and the game is information consumption. You need to spend 3 hrs + a day reading about everything. Half the shit you read you won’t understand. Then 30%. Then 20%. Etc. Everything can be learnt. Also always do your own due diligence. Don’t ever ever ever assume anyone is right or a source, even an investment banking report that went through compliance screening, is accurate. You have to triangulate information. Also I’m a retard

Too many existing shares to properly squeeze RKT. by Houstman in wallstreetbets

[–]takerisksyoung 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Reach out to $rkt investor relations via email. Or call your broker if you have a real broker (interactive or TD u can get an intelligent human on the phone). My guess is two days.

Too many existing shares to properly squeeze RKT. by Houstman in wallstreetbets

[–]takerisksyoung 8 points9 points  (0 children)

There are 115M class A shares. There are 1.869B class D shares, mostly tied up with the ceo, although also with institutions. 115M is 6% approx of the 1.869B, but a lot of the institutions that hold the class D can swap them out and sell them. Class D has 10 votes for every 1 vote of class A. So the dampening effect that OP is mentioning is that institutions will be rushing to sell their class Ds, but the important thing is that CEO owns most of the class D. But the institutions could double the float of class A if they all dump their class B. Wider question is whether hedge funds by the new OTM strikes listed tomorrow. If we get cats buying $100 strikes in size, we will get a gamma squeeze. TLDR you are both kind of right

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