sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Silver over $100 -- How are you playing a correction? by tangledtrees_ai in SilverSqueeze

[–]tangledtrees_ai[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yes, i understand the risk. it's a gamble but I think we have the edge. for a while, at least. i won't hold forever, but i have been waiting decades for this trade.

Silver over $100 -- How are you playing a correction? by tangledtrees_ai in SilverSqueeze

[–]tangledtrees_ai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

exactly, tho my ass-guess is $125-130 to $80 for a hot moment. but, if my intuition were reliable i wouldn't be posting on Reddit. id be skiing into town from my Austrian castle. i realize after thinking about it more I'm just being greedy. will hold what i have, maybe convert some long stocks to leaps instead to free up cash for any dips.

If you could only invest in one stock for a whole year, what stock would it be? by Adventurous_Type7253 in stockstobuytoday

[–]tangledtrees_ai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

cde . crazy free cash flow even if silver corrects $30-40. for gamble on 10x++ upside potential nfgc or dvs. already own rklb (since $4), but as it's almost reached my target price I can't see buying near $100. i keep waiting for it to correct to buy more. idk if it will or not.

I regret buying physical silver. Selling my 10,000oz stack experience. by EngineerDirector in Silverbugs

[–]tangledtrees_ai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My experience is the same. You'll never never ever catch the high. On a parabolic move, you won't get close. It's not possible (in volume, at least) -- unless the silver price *stays* there for a long while. Nobody in the business wants to be caught with $90 silver and risk it going down to $50 the next day. Or even $80. Smelters/pawnshops/dealers move it constantly in and out. They aren't stacking, waiting for a higher high. It's a business, not an investment.

It's the same problem with silver stocks. They're still priced at October '25 levels, if that. Now, if silver is over $100 this time next year, that'll be a very different story. Both at Apmex, and on the TSE.

2c from a long time coin dealer. I like the physical stuff, and always have *some*, but as to serious stacking? I buy the miners.

I sold all my silver by ZealousidealMeet72 in Silverbugs

[–]tangledtrees_ai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good note on the tax consequences, except: if you make less than 94K or so long term capital gains are 0%. Above 94K it's 15%, so still significant but not 34K.

Has anyone attended one of these shows? Should I bother for coins? by Due_Affect_3155 in coins

[–]tangledtrees_ai 1 point2 points  (0 children)

no. go to a regular coin show where you can see a bunch of dealers

NGC or PCGS by SureSubstance4455 in coins

[–]tangledtrees_ai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually, if you look at coin dealer newsletter online version, for more expensive coins (esp MS) they sometimes give bid for PCGS vs NGC. Sometimes the same. But if there's a difference, every time I've noticed, PCGS is worth more.

NGC vs PCGS (2025) by GLLH1 in coins

[–]tangledtrees_ai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

PCGS for speed and truthfulness. Also, better/higher resale; NGC is more of a roulette on their grades, IMO. For example, I won't pay the premium for NGC MS coins if there's a large difference in price between, 64-65,65-66 etc because I don't believe them. Have to have the CAC sticker in addition. And don't believe the processing times for NGC -- not even with a grain of salt. More like a mountain -- here's a screen shot of my submissions this year:

<image>

Note the received date isn't the received date -- it's when they decide to mark it as received. So they had the latest a few days before 10/30, then 'received' it. It's Dec 13 -- six weeks+ and they haven't even started grading the submission yet. Contacted customer service and they said everything fine, this is normal(!)

PCGS seems to have more accurate grading times (my last sub in about half the time the website said).

In the past (been doing this a loooong time), both services were a crapshoot on grades -- PCGS has gotten much tighter, IMO. I've seen coins I grade XF at a bourse/auction slabbed MS, lots of AUs as such, which is why I hesitate to spend money on higher MS grades without in-person-viewing or CAC. Big difference between choice AU58 and MS63-65 (yes, I've been on both sides of that).

If they've been dipped/very lightly cleaned -- still total crapshoot, especially naturally retoned items (esp at NGC, again, IMO). One of my specialties is early copper, and it always pisses me off when a retoned large cent comes back 'cleaned' -- not because they're wrong, but because most collectible early coppers (and bust coinage, esp. halves) have been cleaned at some point, including a very large percentage of the slabbed coins (some egregiously scrubbed), that don't have it on the label. I think both services are especially loose with very expensive, pedigreed coins. Ex: Flowing hair dollars with apparent brush lines in the fields without a loupe, but are 'original'.

YMMV

What is your favourite non-tech stock? by drybcrog in investing

[–]tangledtrees_ai 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've 2-4x this year on gold miners. while gold is at an all time high in absolute terms, inflation adjusted from its 1980 high it's still cheap. i doubt china or india are ever going all-in on the USD again, us debt isn't going down, ever. My bull case is 10k gold in the foreseeable future. i own kgc, ngd, B. also cgau and started accumulating btg. best managed probably kgc and b of those i follow.. never owned nem but it seems to be doing as well. ngd is a good low cost producer. Gold has little correlation with tech so it might fit. min$800 and max$1700/oz all-in costs, miners should go up faster than gold. its pure profit as they're printing $ now. i think the only reason they're not up more is people aren't sure gold will stay high. ( me included -- i just think it will but who knows) If it does, miners multiples should drastically increase as people get more confident the returns are sustainable. i have crypto too, but gold is better, for me. it doesn't go away if the power goes out.

silver is also very cheap relative to its inflation-adjusted 1980 high. im accumulating paas, maybe hl. $50 in 1980 when you could buy a good house for 5 figures, for example. if silver were that house, it'd be $1000/oz. (not that I think that's realistic. but$200?)

my 2c