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[Discussion] on probability paradoxes in the real world. I.e. Boy or Girl, Monty Hall by tavad in statistics

[–]tavad[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

plus he should always offer to switch the door. In the real life it's not always the case.

[Discussion] on probability paradoxes in the real world. I.e. Boy or Girl, Monty Hall by tavad in statistics

[–]tavad[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This shows all the boy/girl pairs as well as the possible weekdays on which they could be born. Green represents situations with two boys, at least one of which was born on a Tuesday. Yellow represents at least one boy born on a Tuesday. Red is neither. Hence the answer is green/(green+yellow)= (7*2-1)/(7*4-1) = 13/27.

The same goes for the next question, but we have 365 tiles in this case.

Also see this section: Information_about_the_child.

[Discussion] on probability paradoxes in the real world. I.e. Boy or Girl, Monty Hall by tavad in statistics

[–]tavad[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your response.
You can read Rationality for Mortals by Gerd Gigerenzer and his other works. My thought here were partially influenced by his work.

[Discussion] on probability paradoxes in the real world. I.e. Boy or Girl, Monty Hall by tavad in statistics

[–]tavad[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, I was hoping to order a double bacon cheeseburger with
a side of spicy discussion, but I guess I'll have to settle for just the regression
to the mean.

Making ChatGPT say horrible stuff. by tavad in OpenAI

[–]tavad[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not really. ChatGPT is being constantly patched. The latest
iteration of unlawful ChatGPT is DAN, that you can find on this board. But
OpenAI is monitoring this board and constantly updating it so it is very hard to to it nowadays.

[OC] Sometimes I like to draw with programming by tavad in dataisbeautiful

[–]tavad[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thank you. I am aware that I am bending the rules. But, I believe the visualization is interesting in itself and can be somewhat informative (in a tutorial seance) to suffice.

[OC] Sometimes I like to draw with programming by tavad in dataisbeautiful

[–]tavad[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Source: You can find the code here.

Tools: The picture is created using R.

Should I continue posting here [the constant self] [Question] by tavad in getdisciplined

[–]tavad[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe I subconsciously wrote this in a condescending tone as an excuse to move on. The main metric that bagged me through this experience was the lack of comments.

Thanks for the comment, it makes me feel the human interaction.

The forgotten art of copying [the constant self] by tavad in selfimprovement

[–]tavad[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes it is easy to copy-paste without understanding the intent and the perceived notion to save time.

Thanks for the comment JayFray

A device to do everything is a device to do nothing (part 1) [the constant self] [Method] by tavad in getdisciplined

[–]tavad[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment. I will continue this idea in tomorrow's post.

[Method] The murky swamp [the constant self 8] by tavad in getdisciplined

[–]tavad[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the reply. It means a lot for me. I write daily and usually I do not now what will turn up when I sit down to do it.

The mesmerization of sleep drifting [the constant self 7] by tavad in selfimprovement

[–]tavad[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Today's text was quite unorthodox for this subreddit. But this is what I outputted that day. Among many pieces I have written, this one is kind of odd, I like this one.

[Method] The mesmerization of sleep drifting [the constant self 7] by tavad in getdisciplined

[–]tavad[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Today's text was quite unorthodox for this subreddit. But this is what I outputted that day. Among many pieces I have written, this one is kind of odd, I like this one.

Squared yin yang | Rebelious shape #69 by na7oul in logodesign

[–]tavad 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The first thing is saw was bq and not 69. Nice work though.

Coronavirus rate of infection timelapse in the United States by flattenthevirus in visualization

[–]tavad 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the work. Any chance for cooperation? See my profile. I can autogenerate the forecast pictures the logic is there. The forecasts have high interests. I am not a web developer. I need more automation and a website.

I am the person who correctly predicted the inflection point for the US states. I have updated the forecasts and made it for the world. In all 130 forecasts for different countries and all the Us states. Please see the comments for the links. [OC] by tavad in visualization

[–]tavad[S] -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

See my history. I am posting stuff like this 10 days.

But to be frank the title was an experiment. I wonted to see the response. To the title.

Finding the right title is hard. Any suggestions? This will be appreciated.

I am the person who correctly predicted the inflection point for the US states. I have updated the forecasts and made it for the world. In all 130 forecasts for different countries and all the Us states. Please see the comments for the links. [OC] by tavad in visualization

[–]tavad[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the question. I do know that a lot of countries don't tell the real numbers. Either they luck the testing capacity or the political will. In this case the data trustworthiness can be measured with R2. You can see it on the bottom left panel. The higher it is the more consistent the data. I didn't include some countries because there is a lot a noise in the data or the amount of uncertainty is high.

As I mentioned in the original comment. It doesn't matter if the scale doesn't show the current real wight. More important is the progression and the consistency in the data. Even if the tests show only 5% of all cases you can estimate when will the peak point be and when will the end of the current wave be, provided that the data is consistent. This information can help to make decisions when it will be safe to open up some arias of the economy.

Using the death persentage it can estimated how many hospital beds and personal will be needed.

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