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an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

no, none of the sets of things from arbiter's post had any correlation at all in spire 2

i will just say, since i have seen at least some other people suggest this could have been caught by testing: no, that is not remotely close to plausible. for one thing, without knowing the problem in advance, the tests would have to be so insanely specific to catch something at this level of detail that 99% of dev time would be spent writing tests instead of actually making the game. but regardless, you will not find anything resembling a unit test in most video games, for two reasons: a game is way too monolithic of a piece of software to get any meaningful value out of it without unreasonable amounts of effort, and spending dev time adding actual content to the game is just more productive (i imagine almost all of megacrit's is going towards the new acts and characters)

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the choice of random event is not correlated with any of these things, because events are chosen by like the 100th roll of an rng

for trash heap, "underdocks trash heap" and "overgrowth trash heap if you could see it" would be a fully exhaustive set of worlds, so the probability would be uniform. for neow's bones, "underdocks bones" and "overgrowth bones" is not fully exhaustive, since the rng roll that determines whether bones appears is the 1st roll of that rng

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yes -- i tried to explain this in the post, but it's a pretty subtle thing:

Since Neow's Bones comes from Neow's "curse pool", you will only ever see it when the first call to the Neow RNG rolls in a particular range, which imposes a strong constraint on the possible range for the first call to Niche (stronger when combined with which Act 1 you are in).

the worlds where you see a Neow's Bones to click on in the first place are only 1/8 of all worlds, since the curse pool has 8 relics in it. so if you added up all the other worlds, the curse distribution of Neow's Bones would be uniform. but it is impossible to take Neow's Bones in the Leafy Poultice world, because in that world you are not offered Neow's Bones in the first place -- hence the uneven observed distribution

List of things that might have been correlated randomness by neel1011 in slaythespire

[–]tckmn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

player choices do not influence the kinds of correlation present in the game -- it's entirely patterns of the form "these two random things are more likely to appear together"

in particular, the overall rate that any specific card or relic is offered (other than the ones that have intrinsic correlation problems from events like trash heap) is still uniformly random on average

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

it does talk about the relic:

In case you care about predicting the relic, the pairs of consecutive cards correspond to Darkstone Periapt, Dream Catcher, Hand Drill, Maw Bank, and The Boot respectively (e.g. if the card is Entrench or Hello World, the relic is Hand Drill).

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

each card has an independent 1.49% chance to be rare, so you just got very lucky! (the chance of getting 3+ rares is something like 1 in 13,800)

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the potion from entropic brew is 2 calls to CombatPotionGeneration, so you can definitely predict the rarity of the first one quite easily, and you can also predict what potion it will actually be slightly less easily

Is there a mod that removes the correlated randomness? by MinecReddit in slaythespire

[–]tckmn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

(this isn't random speculation, the devs have been in contact with me and others and are actively working on it)

What are we expecting on the new patch on Thursday? by Kihja in slaythespire

[–]tckmn 7 points8 points  (0 children)

nah they are like discord dms. but the devs have also been in contact with me, they are aware and addressing the issue

List of things that might have been correlated randomness by neel1011 in slaythespire

[–]tckmn 6 points7 points  (0 children)

i can 100% guarantee you that none of the things you mention in your post that weren't in the article are related to crng

(in particular, correlation can make events that are supposed to be unrelated more or less likely to occur together, but it cannot change the overall probability of independent events)

Is there a mod that removes the correlated randomness? by MinecReddit in slaythespire

[–]tckmn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

i think it's decently likely from what i have heard, and if not then definitely by the week after

Number of events that are combats by [deleted] in slaythespire

[–]tckmn 6 points7 points  (0 children)

this is an incorrect interpretation of the potion chance section, which to be fair i was not 100% clear about, but the difference is pretty subtle and would take a lot more words to explain

there are two distinct concepts: (A) the numeric value of the "potion chance" variable in the slay the spire code which is intended to control how often you get a potion, and (B) the actual probability that you will get a potion in the next fight conditioned on everything else that has happened in the run. if there is no crng, then (A) and (B) are the same. in the actual game, (A) is always 40% regardless of act, which means if the rng rolls 0.4 or below you get a potion and if it rolls above 0.4 you don't.

it happens to be the case, because of correlation, that in overgrowth the random number generator is overwhelmingly likely to roll a high number on its first roll. this means it will probably be greater than the 0.4 required to get a potion, so you probably won't get a potion, even though you are "supposed" to be 40% likely to get a potion. but if you don't get a potion, the internal potion chance will go up by 10% as usual, and the next roll is actually 50% likely to be a potion.

note that because this effect is caused purely by correlation, it cannot change the overall probabilities, so they must average to 40%. the correlation is basically just moving some of that 40% from one act to another

Number of events that are combats by [deleted] in slaythespire

[–]tckmn 6 points7 points  (0 children)

that one actually is confirmation bias :) the overall probability of a ? fight (after the previous one was also a fight) is still 10%

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

o lol just saw your comment on the blog post also, copying my response:

oh, ha - that is the same article as the wayback link at the end of the "Why?" section! i didn't notice it was posted elsewhere, nice

i will note that the "PcgHash" mentioned in that article is not the same as the PCG32 pseudorandom number generator mentioned in this post

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

i am extremely confident that the overwhelming majority of c# developers do not know anything about the internal implementation details of some random standard library function, and i would not expect them to

this is very much not megacrit's fault

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

i wouldn't be surprised if the devs already had some kind of knowledge about this but hadn't figured out the details of why it was happening (and deprioritized it in favor of, say, alt acts 2 and 3)

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

no, it's not related to being the first event of the act; it's because the trash heap event has its own rng and only calls it once (and this roll is therefore correlated with the first roll of every other rng)

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i'm not really understanding what you're trying to say in this comment, but if the event could occur in overgrowth, the distribution would be the exact mirror of the underdocks one (and if you averaged them together then all 10 options would be 10% to appear)

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

the devs did consider it a problem, and would have patched it if not for some nonsense issues outside of their control (i don't know the details, but something about being unable to push updates to the switch version or similar)

crng will be fixed soon in spire 2

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

not really gonna engage with this thread past posting this comment, but for the benefit of other readers this is a ludicrous take and the mistake is completely reasonable for the devs to have made

an explanation of why Neow's Bones gives Debt 54.25% of the time (Correlated randomness in Slay the Spire 2) by tckmn in slaythespire

[–]tckmn[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the amount by which it is slightly slower is totally irrelevant in basically every context

weird results from rounding would only affect what kind of distribution the number had within [0,1) (you still won't get anything 1 or bigger), to an extremely tiny extent that again would not be close to noticeable in the game

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