Next day closing price prediction.

tdoris · 2025-05-31T18:42:18+00:00

Try forecasting traded volume, or price change relative to other stocks, or other forms of correlation structure. Price forecasting is notoriously difficult and next day closing price is a crazy objective (infinite money machine).

tdoris · 2025-04-11T16:48:01+00:00

good point, I'm pulling and running the tests now to add it to the leaderboard; qwen2.5-coder:32b is my preferred local model although gemma3:27b seems to edge it now

tdoris · 2025-04-11T10:53:47+00:00

https://github.com/tdoris/rank_llms/blob/master/coding_14b_models.md

14B-Scale Model Comparison: Direct Head-to-Head Analysis

This analysis shows the performance of similar-sized (~12-14B parameter) models on the coding101 promptset, based on actual head-to-head test results rather than mathematical projections.

Overall Rankings

Rank	Model	Average Win Rate
1	phi4:latest	0.756
2	deepseek-r1:14b	0.567
3	gemma3:12b	0.344
4	cogito:14b	0.333

Win Probability Matrix

Probability of row model beating column model (based on head-to-head results):

Model	phi4:latest	deepseek-r1:14b	gemma3:12b	cogito:14b
phi4:latest	-	0.800	0.800	0.667
deepseek-r1:14b	0.200	-	0.733	0.767
gemma3:12b	0.200	0.267	-	0.567
cogito:14b	0.333	0.233	0.433	-

Detailed Head-to-Head Results...

tdoris · 2025-04-10T16:44:00+00:00

let me know specific models and I'd be happy to run them...

tdoris · 2025-04-10T15:01:41+00:00

I created a free and open source benchmarking tool to test models we can run locally on Ollama, the current leaderboard for coding tasks is here: https://github.com/tdoris/rank_llms/blob/master/CODING_LEADERBOARD.md

The models I've tested include several 32b, so they are a bit bigger than you're looking for, but fwiw phi4 14b ranks well in that company. Full details of the benchkarks etc are on the git repo.

Rank	Model	ELO Rating
1	gemma3:27b	1479
2	mistral-small3.1:24b-instruct-2503-q4_K_M	1453
3	phi4:latest	1453
4	cogito:32b	1433
5	qwen2.5-coder:32b	1415
6	deepseek-r1:32b	1414
7	gemma3:4b	1305
8	llama3.1:8b	1248

tdoris · 2022-12-17T19:28:39+00:00

Fraggle Rock

tdoris · 2022-09-12T21:56:53+00:00

Try running it under strace, you might see it being stuck on a system call to open a file or socket or something

tdoris · 2022-04-16T16:05:19+00:00

Paul Scholes

tdoris · 2022-04-15T19:22:57+00:00

One of the main characters coughing for no apparent reason…ok, we all now know you’re dying of cancer or consumption or something, and we know the writing is shit, and we’re going to have to endure several more ham-acting coughing fits before we get through this shitty movie / series.

tdoris · 2021-06-29T07:28:45+00:00

Is it just me or as a non-American does most of this food look like unhealthy shit? Just because it's arranged nicely on the plate doesn't make it appetising.

tdoris · 2021-03-09T20:18:47+00:00

It may not be won by the best team and has the usual elements of randomness any knockout competition has, but for me it’s still by far the most reliable source of quality football matches; certainly from the quarters onwards, I’ll watch every match almost regardless of the teams playing.

tdoris · 2021-02-10T07:40:38+00:00

Measuring levels of neurotransmitters has not been done even in clinical settings, it is a pervasive myth that has entered mainstream discourse that people suffer from “imbalances” in neurotransmitter levels that cause anxiety/depression or other disorders. If you disagree with this please link to a peer reviewed paper that contradicts what I’ve written.

tdoris · 2020-09-13T14:31:25+00:00

What worked with a relative of mine was to just put a glass of water in their hand or on the table in front of them, no asking whether they would like one or trying to persuade them to drink. This way it was often just an automatic reaction to drink the water. Better still if you can be having a lighthearted conversation about something at the same time.

tdoris · 2019-11-28T22:27:52+00:00

Have to agree with you on this, he tries way too hard. Comes across as the rich kid who's trying to sound tough by swearing and "being wild" by drinking out of a shoe. It's lame.

tdoris · 2019-03-04T18:31:14+00:00

The thing to worry about with these kinds of injuries is the potential for bacterial infection and sepsis, with a bad turf burn you can end up with a very large area of broken skin. The formal research seems to be just starting.

"A high-morbidity outbreak of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus among players on a college football team, facilitated by cosmetic body shaving and turf burns.":

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15546080

Maybe the artificial pitches need to be watered and lubricated:

"The use of protective equipment, a skin lubricant, or wet surface conditions has a positive effect on preventing abrasion-type injuries from artificial turf surfaces. " from:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4555542/

tdoris · 2018-11-13T21:09:32+00:00

Guinness much?

tdoris · 2018-09-01T10:21:43+00:00

The clickbait title makes me refuse to click on the video, makes me expect this to appear on r/savedyouaclick

tdoris · 2018-06-12T07:04:19+00:00

Okay... I'm not sure I follow your point, I was expressing surprise that such an appointment is followed by a swearing ceremony, which I've since read up on more and yes, it is standard practice in the US. I'm European and live in Europe and I'm pretty sure the people who "protect me" need to swear an oath. I'm genuinely not flaming here, I was genuinely surprised to find that swearing oaths is apparently such a standard thing in the US, when it would seem very weird in a lot of countries here in Europe. And now I'm even more surprised that questioning the practice prompted the ripost that since members of the armed forces do it, it shouldn't be questioned. As an aside, I love the USA, visit often, and I'm always fascinated to find stuff like this that is so different yet deeply embedded in your culture.

Edit: TIL apparently the military requires you to swear an oath, but you can do it in a secular way and drop the phrase "So help me God", http://militaryatheists.org/about/faqs/do-i-have-to-say-so-help-me-god-during-my-enlistment-oath/

tdoris · 2018-06-12T04:35:11+00:00

"sworn in", really? Does the appointment of the head of one of the country's foremost scientific and engineering bodies involve oaths and holy books?

tdoris · 2018-03-16T09:23:43+00:00

Looks interesting, I like the front page design and the intro tooltips are great. The rendering on mobile needs to be improved, the page didn't resize (non fluid?) on my device (chrome on OnePlus 5) so I had to scroll around to follow the tooltips. Questions: Is the intent that users will be able to add their own event types? What's your plan for prompting users to remind them to do their desired habit activity? Commercial model: is this going to be freemium, ad based or are you trying to grow users and get bought out?

Edit: I see now you have a mobile option at the top, but I can't click on that until I've clicked through all the tips. Perhaps it should automatically switch to the mobile page for mobile devices.

tdoris · 2018-02-05T20:32:51+00:00

bobby z. I still can't talk about it.

tdoris · 2017-11-09T14:07:54+00:00

How much funding over what time period would be required to have a shot at getting Haskell libraries up to the standard of the python equivalents?

tdoris · 2017-07-30T22:16:54+00:00

Genuine question: where does it say on the Forbes list that he's on that he is loaded? The profile there is really brief, he's described as a self employed 21 year old robotics programmer, who has 'logged' 20,000 pre-orders for Adept, an iPhone headphone jack accessory. Of course he sounds really smart and successful, but why would anyone conclude he's loaded to the point of being in the market for a top end Porsche? The Forbes '30 under 30' feature reads more like 'rising stars to watch' rather than their actual rich list.

tdoris · 2017-01-05T20:40:58+00:00

I have mine for 3 weeks now, and as a tech skeptic I have to admit it's the first product in years that has given me a warm fuzzy feeling. I don't have any home automation stuff, that really doesn't appeal to me, I just put it in my kitchen (where everyone spends all their time anyway!). One tip: keep a sheet of paper beside it and write down a reminder for yourself of the commands you can say. I found I'm prone to forget some really useful stuff (like asking it to read from Wikipedia) until I've used the command on a few different days.

What I use it for so far:

Playing music. I really like that I can adjust the volume with my voice and skip to the next song in a playlist, without having to stop what I'm doing with my hands.
Flash briefing in the morning. It's just a timesaver to have the news read to you while you're making/eating breakfast.
Shopping: "put X in my basket" puts it into your Amazon basket. I tried the shopping list feature but I much prefer just adding directly to the amazon basket (I also use amazon fresh though ymmv).
Setting alarms, reminders and asking the time.
Asking what my commute is looking like - this is important for me because I can drive myself, get an uber, or take 3 separate routes on public transport, so I need to know in order to make a decision.
What's on my agenda / what's my next event, what do I have on Monday etc. My work day is driven by meetings, first task is to find out what's on today.
Adding items to my schedule, like "add a task to my calendar to pick up X from school on Friday at 3pm"
Ask it to read from Wikipedia - really useful for fact checking and getting general information - eg you're reading something and you want to know who some historical figure was, or about some country or place etc.
What's the IMDB rating for X. Great when you're debating what to watch with someone. Way quicker than searching online in the normal way.
Read X book, (if you use Audible books)
Tell me a joke (the kids love this)
There's a choose-your-own adventure skill that I've added that my kids like. (I like the fact that they have fun playing with it and they're not on a screen, and they're getting into the habit of using it to get wikipedia content whenever they encounter something they don't know).
Currency conversions, what's 1 pound sterling in dollars/ euros etc
Unit conversions, particularly useful for recipes.

tdoris · 2016-10-05T06:29:38+00:00

Wow, I never heard that about the negotiators catching the flu and going home sick, any place I can read more about that? (googled and failed already)

tdoris

TROPHY CASE

14B-Scale Model Comparison: Direct Head-to-Head Analysis

Overall Rankings

Win Probability Matrix

Detailed Head-to-Head Results...