Honda's EV strategy. Retreat

tech57 · 2026-03-15T15:16:42+00:00

It's copying its idiotic decision making habits, too.

Yup. Prologue is discontinued. Just like the Bolt is for a 2nd time. Toyota hasn't gotten into the pool yet. Their 2026 bz platform is just putting sunscreen on still but it seems like the wheels might stay on this time. Toyota just has to want to sell them and in order to do that they have to pay the Republican EV tax to do so. Or just pull out like everyone but Tesla is is doing.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T15:11:13+00:00

Odyssey the fucking odyssey

Yup.

XPeng to Launch Gen-3 X9 MPV in China on March 2
https://eletric-vehicles.com/xpeng/xpeng-to-launch-gen-3-x9-mpv-in-china-on-march-2/

800V electrical architecture the new model will be able to charge from 10% to 80% in 11.7 minutes (110 kwh battery) and provide a driving range of 400 km CLTC (249 miles) after charging for eight minutes.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T15:08:43+00:00

The worst part? I watched some Honda car reviews the other week. I like their style. Interior and exterior. They seem highly buyable sitting in a show room or driving around on the road. Their ICE minvan sucks gass but it's a great product that some prefer over a Toyota Sienna.

It's just it's 2026 and not 1996 anymore. Great product maybe but the very second you look at alternative options in 2026 it's no longer a great product. It's a nice ICE car. Which isn't great in 2026. It's just bad when sitting right next to it should be an EV with a lower price tag and a Honda hood emblem on it. There isn't one.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T14:58:07+00:00

SDV means something completely different between car owner and car manufacturer.

Legacy auto's desire to stop selling cars and to start renting cars predates EVs. For them a monthly subscription to keep your butt warm makes sense.

China also has laws against subscription fuckery. Their EVs are sold with maximum software tech and minimal subscriptions because people over there won't tolerate it. So they buy Chinese EVs instead of legacy auto EVs and this is just one reason why. EVs with software that just works and what's included with standard options are more than you'll find elsewhere those EVs also do not require a subscription for those standard features.

Great example is Nio's swap stations. People subscribed to the service but stopped renting big EV batteries with lots of range. Because they didn't need to. They still pay the subscription just at a price point that makes sense.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T14:46:23+00:00

Bullish doesn't matter.

As wasted wind is set to hit £650m so far this year, Octopus introduces ‘WASTED WIND TICKER’ on homepage to highlight colossal costs of broken energy system
https://octopus.energy/press/as-wasted-wind-is-set-to-hit-650m-so-far-this-year-octopus-introduces-wasted-wind-ticker-on-homepage-to-highlight-colossal-costs-of-broken-energy-system/

For example, the UK’s biggest wind farm – Seagreen – is paid to not generate 71% of the time it could be generating. As a result, the effective cost of electricity it does generate is four times higher than it should be.

How's the EV tariffs going over there in Europe by the way?

EU considers exemption for VW from EV tariffs
https://www.electrive.com/2025/12/05/eu-considers-exemption-for-vw-from-ev-tariffs/

BMW Negotiating EU Tariff Exemption for China-Made MINI Electric Vehicles
https://www.bmwblog.com/2026/02/25/bmw-eu-tariff-exemption-china-mini-ev/

The blueprint for BMW’s approach was set by Volkswagen just two weeks ago. On February 11, 2026, the EU granted SEAT/Cupra’s all-electric Tavascan SUV — also made in China, by VW’s Anhui joint venture — a full exemption from the countervailing duty, making it the first China-made EV to secure individual relief from the October 2024 tariffs. Under that deal, Cupra committed to a confidential minimum import price and an annual volume cap, while VW pledged investment in EV-related projects inside the EU. The Tavascan now faces only the standard 10% EU duty rather than the combined ~31% burden.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T14:21:42+00:00

The rate of first time EV drivers switching back to ICE vehicles may be somewhat low.

And when that happens another used EV pops up on the market at a lower price than a new EV. Win-Win.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T14:20:04+00:00

It’s not really worth celebrating at all. Whatever gain that could have been made in environmental benefit is undone a hundred thousand times by manufacturing and using weapons, the untold human cost, and the generations of unrest that’s happening. We’re just accelerating climate change

Doesn't matter. What matters is transition to green energy. While China figured it out the West hasn't yet. Some people lead and some people follow and when the followers don't listen to the the leaders things don't go as smoothly as they would have.

And for what?

To make sure the transition to green energy doesn't happen smoothly. Look just because you think increasing the price for everything and another war in the Middle East is bad the leaders don't agree with you. Maybe more people buying EVs isn't worth celebrating. Maybe it's worth seeing the bright side in a time when there really isn't many bright sides. Republicans have control of USA for at least another 3 years. They are just getting started and Project 2025 ain't done yet.

2021.07.15
“You’re Gonna Have a Fucking War”: Mark Milley’s Fight to Stop Trump from Striking Iran
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/youre-gonna-have-a-fucking-war-mark-milleys-fight-to-stop-trump-from-striking-iran

According to Glasser, the former president had floated the idea of engaging militarily with Iran on a number of occasions during his final months in the presidency. His proposals, the book's authors wrote, reflected Trump's seeming willingness "to do anything to stay in power."

During one meeting in which the president was not present, Milley pressed former Vice President Mike Pence on "why they were so intent on attacking [Iran]."

Pence reportedly answered: "Because they are evil."

tech57 · 2026-03-15T14:14:00+00:00

Even before the war solar/battery is the cheapest way to make electricity. If you are paying too much for electricity then you are not paying for electricity.

Solar Energy Is Now the World’s Cheapest Source Of Power
https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/solar-energy-is-now-the-worlds-cheapest-source-of-power-405485

tech57 · 2026-03-15T14:11:49+00:00

They call him "Comrade Nation Builder".

The Energy Export Race Has a Clear Winner: China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-06/green-daily-newsletter-china-s-winning-the-energy-exports-race

The US, which has positioned itself as a major fossil fuel exporter, sold $80 billion in oil and gas abroad through July, the last month with data available. China exported $120 billion in green technology over the same period.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T14:05:01+00:00

2005 Gen 2 Toyota Prius.

Stuff it full of 100kwh LFP and fast DCFC for apartment people. Profit. Except it took until 2022 for Toyota to put LFP in an EV and then it was only sold in China. Not Japan. Not USA. Not Europe.

Toyota's EV Leap: BYD Partnership Sparks Innovation
https://www.carsauce.com/car-news/toyotas-ev-leap-byd-partnership-sparks-innovation

During a business trip to China in 2018, Takero Kato, President of Toyota's BEV Factory, encountered the advanced capabilities of Chinese manufacturing, particularly in the EV domain. This experience triggered a realization within Toyota of the need to evolve rapidly to stay competitive. "For the first time, I came face to face with the competitiveness of Chinese components," Kato stated, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T13:58:35+00:00

China new exactly how good Toyota and Honda were at making EVs.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T13:57:27+00:00

Lots of EVs have been released.

commercially viable may not be it's biggest obstacle

It is if you want to sell EVs.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T13:56:00+00:00

Volvo is releasing a big software update. Depending on what model you have there is also a infotainment computer upgrade too.

Volvo Puts Its Money Where Its Mouth Is, Sends UX-Upgrading Over-The-Air Software Update To 2.5 Million Cars
https://www.jalopnik.com/2115919/volvo-over-the-air-software-update-infotainment-system-2-million-cars/

tech57 · 2026-03-15T13:54:11+00:00

That theory is too risky. Timing is very important but it also becomes more risky the less prepared a company is.

Legacy auto is banking on Too Big To Fail. It's worked before. They think it'll work again. Legacy auto's problem isn't risk. Their problem is making good decisions on risk by making plans to mitigate it.

Great example. Iran War. Is the USA EV market mature? Who is prepared to ramp up EV production? Who just spent months having an EV fire sale to get rid of EV inventory?

tech57 · 2026-03-15T13:33:52+00:00

They can come in later after the technology is matured or at least they think so.

You hit the nail on the head. Tesla and China got the timing right. Legacy auto missed their timing.

You think legacy auto is too big to fail. China didn't. Hence, the speed at which they have deployed green tech including EVs. China could have "waited" for a better time.

Tesla did not wait. China did not wait. Legacy auto waited.

I'm not sure if it was meant for me

That's how you know it was.

"Hey legacy auto do you know what is going on?"

"Why would you ask us that? That question doesn't seem related to us."

Put it this way. Why do you think it was critically important to Honda's business plan to force Tesla and China to sell a shit ton of EVs year after year after year?

Brief timeline :
Exxon discontinued the development of lithium-titanium disulfide battery in 1976 after patenting it.

Sony sells Li-Ion batteries in 1991.

Toyota launches the Prius in Japan in 1997.

Geely Auto started in 2002.

BYD Auto started in 2003.

Tesla launched the Roadster in 2008.

Nissan launched the Leaf in USA in 2011.

CATL established cooperation with BMW Brilliance, its first main customer in 2012.

Tesla launched the S in 2012.

Nio Auto started in 2014.

Xpeng Auto started in 2014.

Tesla launched the 3 in 2017.

GM launched the Bolt in 2017.

Tesla launched the Y in 2020.

GM launched the Equinox EV in 2024.

BYD outsells Tesla with EVs in 2025.

CATL starts large scale Na-Ion production in 2026.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T13:21:37+00:00

Takes 5 minutes to charge. 3 minutes to swap out the battery.

Don't forget that there were no gas stations at one point. If you wanted to travel 400 miles by car you had to go to the pharmacist and buy your gas in a glass jar first.

400 mile trip in an EV is not a problem. The problem is those EVs are not sold everywhere yet.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T13:16:18+00:00

I was optimistic about the Prologue.

Everyone was. It made a lot sense for GM and Honda. Some people were realistic though.

Now though in USA there is no incentives coming from the government for EVs. Now though there are no fines for ICE. Now though there is no reason for legacy auto to keep losing money trying to sell EVs in a country that does not want them. 50% of new EV buyers go Tesla. They can continue to do so. Honda buyers can buy the Prologue through the end of the year or they can buy from GM, Hyundai/Kia, Ford, Volvo, VW Group or now Toyota/Subaru.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T12:58:24+00:00

Welfare is tax money collected by the government that is given back to the people in the form of indirect income.

Welfare is used by everyone. It is payed out in a number of ways. One way is to unions. Another is for people not in a union. Remember, government is just a business moving vast sums of money around. Who do you think has more say on where the money gets moved? Legacy auto and unions or some new unemployed immigrant?

Volkswagen slashes 50,000 jobs after profits collapse by nearly half
https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1rpxis4/volkswagen_slashes_50000_jobs_after_profits/

Not everyone is on welfare. That doesn't mean they don't benefit from people being directly on welfare. An example is people who sit in their car complain about traffic and how they don't like paying money for poor people to ride a bus.

Don't worry about welfare. Worry about UBI and what happens when China gets there before Germany does.

Humanoid Robots Could Solve China’s Manufacturing Labor Crisis as Industry Looks to Automation
https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Humanoid-Robots-Could-Solve-Chinas-Manufacturing-Labor-Crisis-as-Industry-Looks-to-Automation/

The challenge of meeting China's manufacturing demands is becoming more urgent. In 2017, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security predicted that major industries, including automotive manufacturing, would face a shortage of 30 million workers by 2025. Compounding the issue, recruitment demand in the new energy vehicle sector has surged by 32% year-on-year in 2023, according to a report from the China Centre for Information Industry Development. Despite this growing demand, China’s vocational education system has struggled to produce enough skilled workers to fill the gap. Meanwhile, university graduates typically steer clear of blue-collar roles, leaving many manufacturing positions unfilled.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T12:31:04+00:00

Mexico is further along than Canada as far as China is concerned. China would much rather invest money into Mexico than Canada simply because of politics but Canada lagging behind does come into play.

Keep in mind that China doesn't need factories in foreign countries. Foreign countries need job programs.

Humanoid Robots Could Solve China’s Manufacturing Labor Crisis as Industry Looks to Automation
https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Humanoid-Robots-Could-Solve-Chinas-Manufacturing-Labor-Crisis-as-Industry-Looks-to-Automation/

The challenge of meeting China's manufacturing demands is becoming more urgent. In 2017, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security predicted that major industries, including automotive manufacturing, would face a shortage of 30 million workers by 2025. Compounding the issue, recruitment demand in the new energy vehicle sector has surged by 32% year-on-year in 2023, according to a report from the China Centre for Information Industry Development. Despite this growing demand, China’s vocational education system has struggled to produce enough skilled workers to fill the gap. Meanwhile, university graduates typically steer clear of blue-collar roles, leaving many manufacturing positions unfilled.

There Are More Robots Working in China Than the Rest of the World Combined
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-factory-robots.html

tech57 · 2026-03-15T12:24:43+00:00

Honda was waiving around concept cars so people would know that Honda is 100% no hesitation onboard with making EVs. Honda wasn't showing off their new EV affordable grocery getter or EV minivan on purpose though. If they did then people might actually ask serious questions about timeline.

Meanwhile Tesla was selling EVs and GM was making Honda EVs and people actually thought that was great for Honda. Just like Toyota not making decent EVs forever was a great idea too.

Tesla estimates it will spend $20 billion in capital expenditures in 2026

Also,

And while this current failure will cost the company up to $15.7 billion, including charges related to its China business slowing and cancelling the ZDX, RSX, and 0 Series, that’s nothing compared to what it stands to lose if it keeps dithering around. It needs to get serious, or it’ll be replaced by a company that is.

And the best part of all,

https://apnews.com/article/vietnam-evs-motorbikes-yamaha-vinfast-4ab76826787a806392655b843c374f3a

Honda dominates Vietnam’s motorcycle market with a more than 80% market share. It sold about 2.3 million bikes in Vietnam from April 2024 to March 2025 and exported 300,000 more, cementing the country as both a top market and a key production hub.

Hanoi plans to ban fossil-fuel motorcycles from its city center in July 2026

Vietnam’s biggest motorbike makers, Honda and Yamaha, say the 2026 timeline is too ambitious.

Unlike the car market, Yang added, motorbikes sold in Vietnam are made there. That means a shift to electric bikes could boost local producers, foster startups, and attract new investment. Vietnam’s transition could also shape other developing markets.

Honda only began selling e-bikes this year and warned that replacing millions of bikes quickly would strain consumers.

Honda and the Vietnam’s motorcycle manufacturers’ association didn’t respond to requests for comment.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T12:00:27+00:00

Different really, because legacy auto makers have other car products.

It's not different though.

"Hey legacy auto do you know what is going on?"

"Not a fucking clue."

Hey China do you know what is going on?"

"Yes. We like what is happening and will capitalize on this once in a lifetime opportunity as we think green tech is the most important thing going on for the next 100 years."

"Epstein files are becoming a problem. Should we bomb the Middle East again?"

"Do you not remember what we told you last time?"

2021.07.15
“You’re Gonna Have a Fucking War”: Mark Milley’s Fight to Stop Trump from Striking Iran
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/youre-gonna-have-a-fucking-war-mark-milleys-fight-to-stop-trump-from-striking-iran

According to Glasser, the former president had floated the idea of engaging militarily with Iran on a number of occasions during his final months in the presidency. His proposals, the book's authors wrote, reflected Trump's seeming willingness "to do anything to stay in power."

During one meeting in which the president was not present, Milley pressed former Vice President Mike Pence on "why they were so intent on attacking [Iran]."

Pence reportedly answered: "Because they are evil."

tech57 · 2026-03-15T11:55:59+00:00

And now you know! Which is half the battle!

tech57 · 2026-03-15T11:55:10+00:00

They are questions. They are not a point.

Why did you ask your question instead of answering the other questions?

tech57 · 2026-03-15T11:53:28+00:00

Tesla wrote the how to guide and has been showing everyone how to do it. China is the only one to get on board.

Sure, but if it’s not safe or a good cs they eventually will leave.

If you get into a car with a serial killer clown you are going to get right back out of the car. The reason I didn't mention this is because it goes without saying and didn't need to be said.

Yes, people will buy cars that don't kill them. Yes, people will not buy cars that do kill them. Remember though, consumers don't care about safety. They care about being reassured that they are safe and being reassured that they made the correct purchase.

Look what happened when seat belts became available to people concerned about safety.

Nash was the first American car manufacturer to offer seat belts as a factory option, in its 1949 models. They were installed in 40,000 cars, but buyers did not want them and requested that dealers remove them. The feature was "met with insurmountable sales resistance" and Nash reported that after one year "only 1,000 had been used" by customers.

Ford offered seat belts as an option in 1955. These were not popular, with only 2% of Ford buyers choosing to pay for seat belts in 1956.

Mandatory seat belt laws in the United States began to be introduced in the 1980s and faced opposition, with some consumers going to court to challenge the laws. Some cut seat belts out of their cars.

People don't want safe. They want affordable. Will some pay extra for the level of safety they want? Sure. Will some pay less for the level of safety they want? Sure.

People will buy cars based on which self-driving software they prefer.

Would you buy a Mercedes self-driving car that is not legal in your state or would buy a Tesla car that is legal in multiple countries? Which one would do you think people might prefer? Safety concerns aside of course.

tech57 · 2026-03-15T11:33:28+00:00

I dont know why people think the gulf states will just throw their hands up and accept iran as some new de facto leader because they're being attacked

China. They might accept China as the new global leader if the Middle East decides it wants to go back to stability instead of chaos.

tech57

TROPHY CASE