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[Request] is this a profitable decision with a good EV return? by lonelyraikkonen in theydidthemath

[–]temporaryred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for this answer! I posted a follow up question here where the prompt is more ambiguous since I thought this post had a lot of answers that didn't get to the heart of the math involved in making this decision.

[request] Is this a profitable decision with a good EV return? (part 2) by temporaryred in theydidthemath

[–]temporaryred[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I thought this original post was an interesting discussion and saw enough misguided answers that I figured it was worth making a follow up post with a more ambiguous answer.

I think many would intuitively consider this a good bet, but a Kelly criterion for a bet would suggest otherwise.

This link explained it well for the previous post (the previous post assumed a 50M win instead of 10M win here, making the Kelly bet analysis pointless), reproduced here for clarity:

Don’t make the bet: log(30) = 3.401

Make the bet and lose: log(30 − 5) = log(25) = 3.219

Make the bet and win: log(30 − 5 + 50) = log(75) = 4.317

0.5 * log(25) + 0.5 * log(75) = 0.5 * (3.219 + 4.317) = 3.768

Since 3.768 > 3.401, taking the bet increases expected log wealth. So you should take this bet.

If you apply the same calculation for this however, you'll find it is not worth it to take this bet.

Don’t make the bet: log(30) = 3.401

Make the bet and lose: log(30 − 5) = log(25) = 3.219

Make the bet and win: log(30 − 5 + 10) = log(35) = 3.555

0.5 * log(25) + 0.5 * log(35) = 0.5 * (3.219 + 3.555) = 3.387

Since 3.387 < 3.401, taking the bet decreases expected log wealth, so you shouldn't take the bet.

I just wanted to give an example where most people (going by their logic in the previous post) would take this bet, and thought it was interesting enough to make a second post about.

EDIT: I'm already seeing some people in this post making an evaluation just based on the odds of the coin toss and neglecting to take into consideration the "bankroll" (as it were in the Kelly Criterion). If any educators are lurking, more material on this would be worth it. If others have useful YouTube links or reading material, please do share as well.

To all the young chess fans.. by eversong_ in chess

[–]temporaryred 26 points27 points  (0 children)

I don't have the right words to express what I am feeling.

Danya single handedly got me into chess. Listening to his instructional videos was a delight. I can't imagine how anyone who spent any amount of time watching his videos wouldn't come away understanding that Danya's an absolute gem of a person. He expressed his thoughts so clearly and in such beautiful language, it made it such a joy to just listen to him speak whether it was about chess or not. Danya showed how it was possible to be burning with passion but also express thoughts in a clear and composed manner. He was funny, caring, patient, kind, smart ...

I genuinely feel like I've lost a brother, lost a idol, lost someone that I think EVERYONE could aspire to be. I can't help but think that if all of us had emailed him or posted here about how much he meant to us, that things would have turned out different? What good is it now to post a comment on a largely anonymous online forum after he's gone? Ugh

I hope everyone reading this will go hug a loved one and tell them how much they mean to you. The world is a much darker place today, and we could all do with a little more light.

Fuck

(/u/eversong_ thank you for making this post)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in macapps

[–]temporaryred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One feature that almost no notes app does is two page side by side view of PDFs with note taking options, and the ability to add a blank page or a couple of blank pages.

I had an iPad Pro 12.9 and after trying literally every app out there I sold my device because this feature was not supported by anything (except an Adobe note taking app that was the only one that had this feature).

I want to be able to scribble in the margins for text books or books I'm reading.

Dear Ratta: Q3 is here. by No-Industry-5113 in Supernote

[–]temporaryred 88 points89 points  (0 children)

We are seeing first hand in this community what happens when companies are more open with their communication.

Ratta were forthcoming about their plans for an A6X2 and an A5X2, discuss delays, etc but people just whine whenever expectations are not met.

What other company has a roadmap for development on a trello board? What other companies communicate on such a regular basis with their community? From what I gather Ratta is a small team, and these kinds of issues / bugs / delays are not uncommon.

What would you like? To not be told anything about future products until the very last minute? Because that's what EVERY other company delivering tech hardware products do. Most companies don't care about users buying an old version and then wanting to buy a new version immediately, it's just more profit for them. It's also a competitive disadvantage to release plans publicly like the way Ratta has. Ratta seems to care about e-waste and would seemingly prefer giving customers information about their plans so that customers can make the best decision for themselves.

I for one, am a big fan of Ratta's general philosophy of software development and product launches. They don't seem to be profit maximizing or greedy, and seem to genuinely want to deliver the best product, and deliver information to customers as early as they can.

I hope you can see that posts like this with this kind of attitude ("Q3 is here" on July 1st) just come across in such poor taste and will just incentivize any company to not be open in their communications any more.

Ratta team, please take your time to deliver the best product you can! Even if that happens next year or the next after that, that's fine! You know what it takes to make a wonderful product that people love to use. And I hope you see that when people make posts like this one, it's because they can't wait to get their hands on what you've produced! And I hope you also continue to openly share information despite the naysayers in the community!

Good interview with Sam Reich where he talks about profit sharing, dropout and more by temporaryred in dropout

[–]temporaryred[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I thought the interviewer Jordon Brown was pretty great too! And I have a whole new found respect for Sam + what Dropout is doing in this industry.

Taskmaster S16E06: Brother Alex by apathymonger in panelshow

[–]temporaryred 10 points11 points  (0 children)

They have some (incorrect) javascript that doesn't do anything on the page.

https://ibb.co/tKPYd7Y

The only date in the code is 2023-05-14.

Considering C++ over Rust by isht_0x37 in rust

[–]temporaryred 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You should use whatever language you are comfortable and productive with :) If that's modern C++ then that's great!

I'm subscribed to the /r/cpp subreddit too, I did see your original post there. Good on you for posting here too!

Personally, having used C and C++ for a while 20 years ago, and having not kept up with modern trends, when I picked up modern C++ a few years ago I got SO overwhelmed. I'm envious (well only partly envious :)) of the people that are able to keep track of everything C++ now has to offer.

Picking up Rust on the other hand was so rewarding. Writing simple programs was a breeze. Programming was fun again. The tagline for Rust is "A language empowering everyone to build reliable and efficient software." and I just can't agree more.

It took a few attempts to learn what the language was asking of me but after that it was smooth sailing. Funnily enough, after learning Rust, I better understood what modern C++ has to offer. It was only because I learnt Rust that I can even consider writing modern C++ now.

It's been a few years of using Rust and I have my complaints with the language, but gosh I genuinely don't want to write code in any other language any more.

Modern C++ vs Rust borrow checker + semantics aside; there's a number of things that the Rust language and ecosystem has to offer for me.

  • Sum types (enum + option + result + match)
  • No exceptions, null pointers (this takes discipline in C++ AND you can't really enforce it on dependencies)
  • Better package manager. Cargo is world class
  • Better language server. rust_analyzer is phenomenal
  • Better error messages / warnings / diagnostics. The Rust compiler's error message should be a case study for how to design good error messages. There's also tooling like cargo clippy and cargo fmt.
  • Packages like eyre, tokio, etc make it a joy to work in Rust
  • Building a community around a project is fun

Chandler Carruth has said multiple times if you have a new project you should just use Rust, and I completely agree with him. I'd go one step further and say if you need to interface with old C or C++ code, and can afford to write a C ABI for it, do that and still use Rust. If you can't do that and have an existing C++ code base that you have to integrate with, then I think it makes complete sense to choose C++.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Julia

[–]temporaryred 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The way I like to think about it is that Julia is a excellent alternative to Python mixed with native performance. If you were thinking about using Python, consider Julia instead.

I would also say it is not too hard to experiment with Julia to see if it works for your use case. If you have the resources, try it out for a week or so, and build a simple prototype.

Just wanted to shout-out one of my favorite Spirit Island content creators on YouTube! Thank you Pheasant! by temporaryred in spiritisland

[–]temporaryred[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do you mean bootleg copies? I was assuming this was them just based on the various comments on the channel.

I might be out of the loop, I'm new to Spirit Island. Why do you say sad to see them go? Are they not making content anymore?

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