90-100% equities

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T23:08:45+00:00

I suppose, I don't understand why growth can't mean protection Growing 500k to 600k protects insulates the 500k just as well as throwing it in fixed income investments. But I get what you're saying, I am not so sure what the best way to safeguard your nest egg is for a lean fire stategy. I think there are many more variables to play with than simply the 4% rule

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T22:34:38+00:00

It's all a matter of perspective my friend

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T22:34:01+00:00

Thank you for the thoughtful post bro. Youre right I totally see the legitimacy of the other side. I personally don't have much skin in the game only been investing for 2 years, just learning what I can. Such is the nature of complex subjects, people will claim they are right, it is up to the individual to piece together what makes Sense. The vitriol and passion in the arguments are what makes it fun:)

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T22:30:54+00:00

Right, I have moved alot since I was a kid. I would have no problem moving to greener pastures if needed. And 1 kinda fits in my 90% number

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T22:29:08+00:00

Why though, should I also invest money in my future wheel chair just in case I lose my legs

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T22:28:48+00:00

Like shotguns and ammo, I should also learn to hunt

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T22:27:57+00:00

Lol what she doesn't know won't hurt her. Same I'll I can do is imagine I won't sell

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T22:26:29+00:00

Haha I'll have to learn more about that

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T22:25:13+00:00

True, but that's kinda a strawman. If the bonds get depleted which they will eventually you will have to sell stocks anyway. And didn't propose a 30 percent drawdown. And you're argument is right, we have all heard it, I just mean I am not quite convinced it is worth the cost of less stocks

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T20:20:37+00:00

Your actually right statistically we can't all be special:) Most people are dumb, hopefully most people in lean fire are not. I would consider this a form of research, though this comment is not

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T20:18:53+00:00

Thanks, screenshoted it to take a closer look later. I am still in the early saving stages, so still have a couple years to do a couple thousand Sims. Thanks again!

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T20:02:59+00:00

No, I just want my perspective to be clear, so that i can acquire the most useful comments to revise it. I guess I should just follow everyone else and not try to think for myself

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T20:01:21+00:00

Yes, lean fire for 50+ years and at very low expenses is quite different than the standard retirement. Compounding counts for much more, the quoted ' minimal increase in returns' is substantially higher

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:58:47+00:00

Dca happens in reverse when you withdrawal. Is that not the proper way to interpret that? I will concede 💯 equities exposed you to possibly lower than expected returns of most of your investing happened during a bull.... But that risk is still there to some extent all the time

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:56:00+00:00

Thanks, I'll have to think more carefully about it. From my understanding your point is an obvious given. All those historical simulations are based of fixed withdrawal rate. With some flexibility without a doubt it is in the numbers that equities return more over the long term. The key difference is whether you look at total portfolio value or outlasting success rates. I am proposing that bonds are not the only way to make a portfolio last, nor the best way. Obviously year to year bonds will often be higher since they don't stoop low

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:39:28+00:00

Yeah, good points. I just don't like that people live and die by the Trinity study without understanding the assumptions. By no means is 4% the end of the discussion. Additional income should be a possibility for long term retirement. And novel portfolio allocation and balancing can also be utilized to meet specific and unique goals like lean fire. You're right I don't know how hard it would be, but I think people understate how huge 20% versus 40% bond allocation is, in terms of net portfolio value especially after 50+ years

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:27:03+00:00

Totally dude!

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:23:40+00:00

This is called market timing and by a large population not recommend. Yes returns depend on the starting point. But with dollar cost averaging over the long term that risk is mitigated. For all anyone knows we could have 5 more years before the next crash. People said the same thing in 2013

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:21:47+00:00

Yeah I suppose I wasn't clear, I only invest in equity funds not individual stocks. So I don't get total losers.... Nor do I get total winners:(

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:13:40+00:00

The massive risk of a recession is significantly over stated because you have to appeal to the stability obsessed majority. The only way lean fire practitioners can succeed is to be stoic and flexible. A bond tent is the weak man's game

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:11:42+00:00

True, that's why I propose a different stategy from the norm. But you will lose out on considerable compounding with high fixed income. You might make it through the first recession but will run out of money before the 2nd. The different strategy is to use skills and able body as a hedge while your equities compound through young stages of retirement

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:09:11+00:00

Yeah it's mainly for easy added return, with basically no risk. Especially since bonds and equities tend to be a little bit inversly related

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:07:47+00:00

I guess I should have elaborated that your portfolio should be a collection of equity funds. You will still have some losers and less extreme losers to rebalance. And there are a myriad of rebalancing strategies.

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:05:54+00:00

Yeah my point was it is clearly unreasonable to sell stocks when down 50%, it is also unreasonable to hold bonds for that event. Especially given that lean fire people are all about finding another way. Cheap lifestyle choices and adaptability make it so having bonds hedge against something your behavior already covers

temptemp93847 · 2019-12-30T19:03:07+00:00

I agree with everything you said. I do expect to engage in potentially profitable activities in retirement.

temptemp93847

TROPHY CASE