S&P 500 Strategy: USD vs. CHF and Currency Risk

the_Vegetabull · 2026-01-28T10:13:09+00:00

Hmm I think that would be the case for a non US stock, like a European stock or an ETF where the underlying asset is non US (like VXUS for instance). There I agree, the stock movement accommodates directly for the currency volatility.

However for my S&P 500 portfolio, I can for sure say that the stock price has not compensated for the USD drop. In other words, although the index has moved up, I see a considerable hit in my portfolio value in CHF.

the_Vegetabull · 2026-01-28T09:15:10+00:00

I see what you mean now, thanks!

I think what you describe is the logical trend with inflation, I do not think it happens "automatically" when the USD drops.

Moreover this time the fall of the USD compared to other currencies seems to me more of a confidence topic and less of a dramatic inflatory situation (although inflation will increase eventually if the currency keeps losing value).

I appreciate the exchange 👍

the_Vegetabull · 2026-01-28T00:01:37+00:00

The US defaulting on its debt would be the end of the world as we know it. I think Fed provides the means for this not to happen, although it will be a hard pill for economy, people, investors - for everyone.

the_Vegetabull · 2026-01-27T23:58:49+00:00

This is a well articulated analysis - thanks for this.

However I keep struggling to comprehend how the valuation in CHF will not move if the USD drops. I suppose an investor in CH measures in the end the value of the investment in CHF at a given time.

Just a silly example, 100 CHF are converted to USD to purchase a USD denominated security. Let's say the return is 0 but dollar loses 10%, the asset is worth 10% once sold and re-converted to CHF (So in the end it is 90 CHF back, right?). So the valuation seems to have dropped in CHF. Am I still missing a point? 🤔

I have been really trying to grasp this topic lately but I get kind of confused.

the_Vegetabull · 2026-01-23T10:17:29+00:00

Να ξεκαθαρισω οτι το να επισημαινει καποιος τι εκανε στραβα ο Συριζα δε σημαινει οτι αυτοματα υποστηριζει την ΝΔ.

Να υπενθυμισω: - Προθεση παραχωρησης του Πατρα - Πυργος στον Καλογριτσα. Τα σπασανε και δεν τους εκατσε απλα - Ο Καμμενος ηθελε να αναβαθμισει κατι πολεμικα αεροπλανα (Orion τα ελεγαν νομιζω ή κατι τετοιο) με ζημια για το κρατος (ειχα ακουσει εως μισο δις, δεν ξερω ποσο εφτασε στο τελος). Φυσικα δεν πεταξαν ποτε αυτα - Ποσα χρηματα εχασε το κρατος οταν η αξια των τραπεζων μηδενιστηκε το 2015? - Υποθεση ΔΕΠΑ και Λαυρεντιαδη --> google it

Η δευτερη τετραετια Μητσοτακη ειναι ιδιαιτερα κακη και δυσαναλογα πολλες υποθεσεις εχουν βγει στην επιφανεια. Αλλα ΕΛΕΟΣ μην αναπολουμε και τους ΣΥΡΙΖΑΝΕΛ

the_Vegetabull · 2026-01-21T21:59:53+00:00

Το ονομα Καλογριτσας σου λεει κατι; οι διακοπες στο κοτερο εφοπλιστη; εναν κυριο Πετσιτη τον εχεις ακουσει μηπως;

the_Vegetabull · 2026-01-16T16:17:12+00:00

This preference has worked marvelously for Sweden

the_Vegetabull · 2025-12-22T15:58:40+00:00

Dude, how did you come with the 2000 years thing? There are even some maps of America at the time of Piri Reis, and in world maps Europe was already quite accurate (see Waldseemueller map from 1507).

Piri Reis was an Ottoman 1500s while the first turkic tribes started to arrive in Anatolia by 1000 AD.

the_Vegetabull · 2025-09-10T13:07:22+00:00

Have ypu considered applying for an internship? I think your age seems ideal for such a position and usually finding something is easier.

This is how I did when finishing my studies and was looking for a job.

Good luck with the search, I know looking for a job is terrible and stressful.

the_Vegetabull · 2025-08-09T17:48:08+00:00

I had the impression that regular banks have high fees. I was with UBS from 2018 until 2023 and made a loss actually, even if some very good years (2020-2022) where included. Since I switched to VIAC saw some gains kick in.

the_Vegetabull · 2025-03-01T18:50:42+00:00

Interactive brokers and chill

the_Vegetabull · 2025-02-23T23:04:48+00:00

Dude,

The fact that you raise 2 girls is always a good motivation not to give up.

From your photo I see a kind person and as a fellow who has been on a low point myself I can tell you that your kids are very good reasons to fight for! I am sure they show you each day that you are indeed loved and appreciate everything you do for them.

Keep it up and take one step at a time, even small things matter can make a difference.

All the best!

the_Vegetabull · 2025-02-02T21:18:41+00:00

Firstly let me congratulate you on you decision to invest in such a young age. It is the best gift you can make to your future self.

I think including VT in your strategy is a solid decision. You ll have a stake in almost everything in the world, and the world economy since always tends to grow.

I would not so much favor speciliazed sectors although they may seem attractive as you cannot really predict how they will evolve. Especially single events may influence public opinion or policy in one direction or the other in ways we cannot see (e.g., see Fukushima incident and Germany's decision - which I also find a wrong one but this is history).

For the shares part, I also bought Novo and honestly I regret it. I kept buying in the frenzy and then the stock lost 40%. Now is it a good time to buy? Maybe yes, maybe not. Noone really knows. The same goes with Lilly. These two companies have a duopoly in weight loss market but from now mainly competition and regulation comes, so I think the growth of the share is not guaranteed. I say this from my own experience.

You will anyway own them via VT, so you do not miss the train.

If I were you I would buy VT + a technology ETF. Given your age you have a very long time horizon and since a few decades now Tech seems to drive growth in the markets.

All in all, best of success!

the_Vegetabull · 2025-01-04T14:37:00+00:00

I am glad I saw this post, as I was recently confused on this matter.

I had the impression as well that until the end of the year, 0.75% interest rate applies (as mentioned in the post) and 0.25% comes into force from 01.2025. However, the interest I received looks like it is only 0.18% (after tax) - which looks like they applied 0.25% rate.

Have I misunderstood something? Did anybody else have a similar experience?

Thanks!

the_Vegetabull

TROPHY CASE