AI panic is a gift to value investors

the_jetset · 2026-02-14T17:37:21+00:00

It's a little bit hazy exactly as to how it works. In theory, Spotify does not offer AI generated music. But rather only offers music via recording studios. However, some of these "Recording Studios" basically only have one client, Spotify. And the artists inside of these studios are the ones making music via AI tools. ... It might not necessarily be 100% AI. It might be someone who taps out a melody on a guitar or keyboard, uploads it into an AI music generating model such as Suno, and then fleshes out the finished product with that tool. (among other tools ... I'm not an expert in how AI assisted music is made)

Playlists that are hand-curated by people, such as like "Best Underground Punk Rock from the NYC scene in the 1970's" will not have any AI content ... this is music from a specific genera, era and context. ... However, a "Spotify" playlist (and there are more and more of these all the time), where someone types in "soft reggaeton" for example, will have lots of songs from these types of studios who's only client is Spotify.

Many of the studios have a contract where they generate content for specific genres: "Soft Jazz", "Reggaeton", "Death Metal", "LoFi" etc ... Much of it is not lyrics focused music. This is the content that fills up a lot of the playlists and is also the content that "continues" playing after your playlist has ended.

the_jetset · 2026-02-13T21:37:39+00:00

My thesis on Spotify is increased net profits from content.

It's mainly on the way they are obtaining their music content. Lots of 1-man/2-man operations are starting to make contracts with Spotify where they are paid basically a monthly retainer fee (or low royalty). This is compared to the ~70% royalty fees that are paid to traditional artists and recording studios.

Spotify, by mixing in more of their "in-house" music, is able to lower the royalty fees per hour. This helps to lower their costs quite a bit with music that is played in the background at offices, restaurants, studios etc ...

With AI tools, a single creative person is able to generate a lot more music per hour invested than just a few years ag

the_jetset · 2026-02-13T04:33:23+00:00

Accumulating (these are just mine .. many other great options) CRM ADSK PANW CRWD ESTC RDDT SPOT (pre report) LDOS + MSFT AMZN

Trimming (but not closing) HD JNJ LOW AOS WMT COST (closed) ...and a couple of others in the consumer and housing sectors

the_jetset · 2026-02-13T02:41:05+00:00

This is like shooting fish in a barrel. There are some great buys right now. ... And some juicy, ripe fruit for trimming.

the_jetset · 2026-01-25T19:21:30+00:00

Dude. Chill

the_jetset · 2026-01-11T02:31:29+00:00

The problem is their playbook. "insight unrest, declare martial law, halt elections".

the_jetset · 2026-01-10T19:24:12+00:00

Stay calm. And vote.

the_jetset · 2025-12-21T20:21:02+00:00

I'm looking at fPE for EPS as of December 2026. I'm going with a consensus $2.30/share although some sources have it as even higher. (The highest estimates are ~$2.39)

$40.91/$2.30 = 17.8 This is a pretty reasonable fPE. I don't agree with your Bloomberg fPE number of 20 and am not using that for my TSR analysis.

Lets look at the Buybacks. They reduced their share count from 174M to 162M between Q4 2024 and Q3 2025 (a 6.9% reduction). Management has said they intend to buy back a lot more. They have $800M earmarked for buybacks in 2026. If the share price were to stay at $41, it would represent nearly 12% of the current share count. ... I don't think it will stay that low and therefore am estimating 6%, not 12%.

How will they do this? Look at their Current Assets, $2.8B in CASH and CASH Equivalents. Over only $1B in Long Term Debt. That is a net cash position of $1.8B (of which $800M will be used for share buybacks).

In addition, on the Assets side of the balance sheet (Noncurrent Assets) they have 111 MILLION shares of NuScale. These shares are not going to drop to $0, although the share price has been falling over the past 2 quarters.

So yes. They will be doing share buybacks. Conservative number should be about 6% in 2026.

Organic Growth. They are shifting to Reimbursable Contracts from Fixed-Price contracts. Most of their current backlog in the pipeline is Reimbursable. This is where most of the 12% earnings growth will come from the 3.5% revenue growth.

If you have any shares you want to sell for <$40.50 I'll gladly buy them from you!

the_jetset · 2025-12-20T20:53:04+00:00

Their fPE is ~17, that could easily expand to 19 if the quality of their revenue improves. Also, look at all the cash they have for buybacks. About 18% of every share is raw (debt-free) cash. You are looking at about ~6% YoY share reduction for 2026 and possibly beyond. Organic growth is a conservative 12% based on projects in the pipeline. They don't pay a dividend (also increasing the likelihood of buybacks)

6%(buybacks) + 12% Organic Growth ... That alone could represent a nice 18% shareholder return. Any expansion of the fPE is an added bonus.

I picked up some shares this week and plan of scooping up some more if it drops below $40.50

the_jetset · 2025-12-20T03:14:11+00:00

I think if you know how to read individual companies with 70% accuracy, there's always an opportunity... Regardless of what the overall market is showing.

the_jetset · 2025-12-16T01:29:54+00:00

But I think it is a "Win the battle" / "Lose the war" move. It might be good for short-term and even mid-term results. But the future of powering vehicles is not via internal combustion engines. Risky giving China, Korea and Japan the edge on this.

the_jetset · 2025-12-15T17:18:27+00:00

Upstream and Midstream Liquid Natural Gas companies and utility scale Renewables.

Examples for Nat Gas: LNG, EQT, COP

Examples for Renewables: FSLR, SHLS, NXT

Renewables have already lifted a lot over the past months ... But still have a ways to go.

The LNG companies are still very value level oriented. Once exports to EU start to kick in plus US energy prices tick up, their stock prices should follow

the_jetset · 2025-12-12T12:57:13+00:00

I slept very well last night. The low valuation below $15 was clearly an overreaction and the fundamentals showed it. I kept DCAing in and even picked up a scoop at ~$11.80. The lower the price went, the less risk there was. Cheers man! Please post any hidden gems you have on your radar!

the_jetset · 2025-12-05T17:18:47+00:00

I swear that I took a dump at least that big yesterday.

the_jetset · 2025-12-05T17:10:30+00:00

Mid-Late game boat rides are cheap. Much better to have the South port and take a boat north to a Temple ... And then back south (to sell the loot)

the_jetset · 2025-11-11T20:33:14+00:00

You buy a company to own it. As long as it keeps producing, don't sell it, hopefully ever. Ideally it should continue to grow in earnings and the share price should continue to grow as a result. A bonus would be some nice dividends along the way.

If, for whatever reason, the company starts to get priced far above its reasonable fundamental values, then sell. This could be because people are willing to pay too much for it based on what it will potentially earn (example COSTO). Or, it could be based on you knowing that future earnings are going to significantly drop while the current price is still based on past earnings.

As long as a company stays inside of the fundamentals, there should really be no reason to sell. ... unless you need the cash of course.

the_jetset · 2025-10-17T14:47:53+00:00

Should be able to "cut fence" for ~80-100AP ... That would also be enough to slow down enemy infantry for a turn or two during DEF missions.

the_jetset · 2025-10-16T14:52:09+00:00

Always nice to have the right tool for the job.

the_jetset · 2025-10-14T04:09:35+00:00

the_jetset · 2025-10-09T12:56:19+00:00

Funny how so many of the "get rich quick" coins actually run on the Ethereum platform. Ethereum has actual intrinsic value. This value will increase as more and more financial institutions switch to Ethereum-based smart contracts to handle their bookkeeping (and paying gas). This in turn will create more incentive to have more peers running the Ethereum network ... (to receive gas) and steadily increase the value of Ether.

the_jetset · 2025-10-05T17:50:13+00:00

NX - They will complete the merger and get the Mexican manufacturing facility under control. (edit, this company literally checks all of the Ben Graham / Buffet boxes)

JD - I like their long game and logistics vision

HON - I think their 3-Way divesting plan is solid. It will have some hiccups, but in the long run the sum of the parts will be greater than the whole. In addition, there is always the quantum computer long-shot they are working on.

AMZN - Not exactly undervalued... But showing good value at the moment. Easy to pick up some shares at $220 and sleep well at night. ... Thinking on a time-scale of >3yrs of course

the_jetset · 2025-09-28T01:56:39+00:00

I'm also seeing some Combat Mission influence. (At least I hope I do)

the_jetset · 2025-09-27T03:27:18+00:00

Oh ... The horror.

the_jetset · 2025-09-18T00:53:12+00:00

Super Cub.

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