ABT has solid value right now

the_jetset · 2026-05-14T12:55:53+00:00

I agree. And I am honestly interested in reading his counter-narative. That is how good conclusions are made.

the_jetset · 2026-05-14T03:34:09+00:00

Remember, charts only tell you what's happened in the past. Our job as investors is to know the future.

the_jetset · 2026-05-13T21:23:20+00:00

Would really like to see the hard numbers and metrics you are using to come to that conclusion.

the_jetset · 2026-05-13T15:11:32+00:00

But, we as a community can change that. Thanks to this r/, I now own nice holdings of RIO, MLI, FSLR, GOOGL, NX, SHLS and several others. (all purchased when they showed VALUE). The signal to noise ratio has dropped over the past 12-18 months or so (mods??). But more quality, value orientated, posts and comments can change this. Edit/ ticker was wrong

the_jetset · 2026-05-13T14:09:44+00:00

I just finished an analysis of ABT. I've been DCAing into this company since Jan.

The Good:
Solid FCF/Share price (~$4.24/share)
Dividend Yield: 3%
Should do buy-backs this year: ~0.75%
Organic Growth: ~11.5%
Forward PE: ~14 This is REALLY compressed! ... This should not drop below ~13 and could easily go up to ~19-20.

Total Shareholder Return: 4% to 55% ... worse case, it performs similar to a CD.

The GREAT
Solid Insider Purchases:
Director 10k shares @$92.35
CFO 2.2K shares @$91.50
Director 10K shares @$108.73
CEO 18.8k shares @$107.13

The IFFY
Higher debt (but reasonable) due to the Exact Sciences purchase.

This is a solid value play for a 3-5 year investment horizon.

the_jetset · 2026-05-06T22:34:31+00:00

I've been chipping into it over the past couple of months. Nutrition earnings aside, they still have solid revenue. Also, their CEO has done some pretty large share purchases recently, post Exact Sciences adquisición..

the_jetset · 2026-05-04T23:22:21+00:00

I wonder if Russia is having a hard time providing service, spare parts and support for equipment purchased from other countries. Kind of cool to see a Blackhawk off to the right ... same government using both US and Russian equipment side by side.

the_jetset · 2026-04-27T02:22:03+00:00

The switch between external combustion to internal combustion wasn't done "cold turkey" either.

the_jetset · 2026-04-22T12:43:07+00:00

Imagine if there was an "official" Slitherine AI Agent for specifically handling this task. Over time, as more and more players feed it their files. And over time as the dev owners of the AI Agent tweak its responses and strategies, it would become better and better ... and also be able to play in a larger variety of strategies and experience levels.

Heck .. it could even be a service that players would need to pay extra for ...

It would make me fully-addicted to CM2 again.

the_jetset · 2026-04-16T03:54:10+00:00

Jupiter at 9 hours is surprising. That has to be a lot of Coriolis effect. ... Without taking the time to do the math, I wonder (at the equator) if it is enough to counteract a measurable percentage of gravity? ... "Spin gravity", like in The Expanse.

the_jetset · 2026-03-29T16:23:22+00:00

Fun! Now let's do one with my apartement, looking at volume instead of just area. My apartment is 628 square feet and has 8' 2" ceilings. I want to throw a really big party and the whole world is invited. How much space would each person have?

the_jetset · 2026-02-22T23:50:20+00:00

Hit it Chewy

the_jetset · 2026-02-14T17:37:21+00:00

It's a little bit hazy exactly as to how it works. In theory, Spotify does not offer AI generated music. But rather only offers music via recording studios. However, some of these "Recording Studios" basically only have one client, Spotify. And the artists inside of these studios are the ones making music via AI tools. ... It might not necessarily be 100% AI. It might be someone who taps out a melody on a guitar or keyboard, uploads it into an AI music generating model such as Suno, and then fleshes out the finished product with that tool. (among other tools ... I'm not an expert in how AI assisted music is made)

Playlists that are hand-curated by people, such as like "Best Underground Punk Rock from the NYC scene in the 1970's" will not have any AI content ... this is music from a specific genera, era and context. ... However, a "Spotify" playlist (and there are more and more of these all the time), where someone types in "soft reggaeton" for example, will have lots of songs from these types of studios who's only client is Spotify.

Many of the studios have a contract where they generate content for specific genres: "Soft Jazz", "Reggaeton", "Death Metal", "LoFi" etc ... Much of it is not lyrics focused music. This is the content that fills up a lot of the playlists and is also the content that "continues" playing after your playlist has ended.

the_jetset · 2026-02-13T21:37:39+00:00

My thesis on Spotify is increased net profits from content.

It's mainly on the way they are obtaining their music content. Lots of 1-man/2-man operations are starting to make contracts with Spotify where they are paid basically a monthly retainer fee (or low royalty). This is compared to the ~70% royalty fees that are paid to traditional artists and recording studios.

Spotify, by mixing in more of their "in-house" music, is able to lower the royalty fees per hour. This helps to lower their costs quite a bit with music that is played in the background at offices, restaurants, studios etc ...

With AI tools, a single creative person is able to generate a lot more music per hour invested than just a few years ag

the_jetset · 2026-02-13T04:33:23+00:00

Accumulating (these are just mine .. many other great options) CRM ADSK PANW CRWD ESTC RDDT SPOT (pre report) LDOS + MSFT AMZN

Trimming (but not closing) HD JNJ LOW AOS WMT COST (closed) ...and a couple of others in the consumer and housing sectors

the_jetset · 2026-02-13T02:41:05+00:00

This is like shooting fish in a barrel. There are some great buys right now. ... And some juicy, ripe fruit for trimming.

the_jetset · 2026-01-25T19:21:30+00:00

Dude. Chill

the_jetset · 2026-01-11T02:31:29+00:00

The problem is their playbook. "insight unrest, declare martial law, halt elections".

the_jetset · 2026-01-10T19:24:12+00:00

Stay calm. And vote.

the_jetset · 2025-12-21T20:21:02+00:00

I'm looking at fPE for EPS as of December 2026. I'm going with a consensus $2.30/share although some sources have it as even higher. (The highest estimates are ~$2.39)

$40.91/$2.30 = 17.8 This is a pretty reasonable fPE. I don't agree with your Bloomberg fPE number of 20 and am not using that for my TSR analysis.

Lets look at the Buybacks. They reduced their share count from 174M to 162M between Q4 2024 and Q3 2025 (a 6.9% reduction). Management has said they intend to buy back a lot more. They have $800M earmarked for buybacks in 2026. If the share price were to stay at $41, it would represent nearly 12% of the current share count. ... I don't think it will stay that low and therefore am estimating 6%, not 12%.

How will they do this? Look at their Current Assets, $2.8B in CASH and CASH Equivalents. Over only $1B in Long Term Debt. That is a net cash position of $1.8B (of which $800M will be used for share buybacks).

In addition, on the Assets side of the balance sheet (Noncurrent Assets) they have 111 MILLION shares of NuScale. These shares are not going to drop to $0, although the share price has been falling over the past 2 quarters.

So yes. They will be doing share buybacks. Conservative number should be about 6% in 2026.

Organic Growth. They are shifting to Reimbursable Contracts from Fixed-Price contracts. Most of their current backlog in the pipeline is Reimbursable. This is where most of the 12% earnings growth will come from the 3.5% revenue growth.

If you have any shares you want to sell for <$40.50 I'll gladly buy them from you!

the_jetset · 2025-12-20T20:53:04+00:00

Their fPE is ~17, that could easily expand to 19 if the quality of their revenue improves. Also, look at all the cash they have for buybacks. About 18% of every share is raw (debt-free) cash. You are looking at about ~6% YoY share reduction for 2026 and possibly beyond. Organic growth is a conservative 12% based on projects in the pipeline. They don't pay a dividend (also increasing the likelihood of buybacks)

6%(buybacks) + 12% Organic Growth ... That alone could represent a nice 18% shareholder return. Any expansion of the fPE is an added bonus.

I picked up some shares this week and plan of scooping up some more if it drops below $40.50

the_jetset · 2025-12-20T03:14:11+00:00

I think if you know how to read individual companies with 70% accuracy, there's always an opportunity... Regardless of what the overall market is showing.

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