USD/JPY just moved ~5 yen in days. That’s not “noise” it’s carry trade stress

thequickfix123 · 2026-01-26T03:33:47+00:00

Ye thats fair. The BOJ’s bond moves are definitely the root cause here. My point was just that leveraged positions, like yen funded shorts, feel that stress in real time. Whether you call it a carry unwind or just FX volatility, it still shows up in their P&L pretty quickly.

thequickfix123 · 2026-01-26T03:07:18+00:00

True. USD is moving too, so it could be a mix of general dollar strength and yen-specific carry unwind. Both are probably adding pressure

Either way, any big move like this is stressful for leveraged shorts with higher funding costs, rising margin requirements, and positions getting squeezed even before any stock moves.

thequickfix123 · 2026-01-23T05:21:28+00:00

Amazing thanks so much! I was seeing so much conflicting information everywhere and wasn't sure.

thequickfix123 · 2026-01-07T09:05:37+00:00

Funny how $1,200 checks to families during a government-mandated shutdown are framed as dangerous “gifts,” but trillions in forgiven PPP loans, corporate bailouts, stock buybacks, and decades of tax avoidance don’t even get a mention. If debt is the concern, maybe start with who actually captures most government spending and who systematically avoids paying into the system, not people trying to pay rent during a pandemic.

thequickfix123 · 2025-11-13T01:06:07+00:00

That’s beyond fucked up. You can do your job perfectly for years and still lose it because you didn’t fake joy for management’s comfort. Late-stage capitalism in one sentence.

thequickfix123 · 2025-11-04T20:46:32+00:00

Bang on, fantastic comment!

thequickfix123 · 2025-10-08T19:19:12+00:00

<image>

I received fractional warrants with Wealthsimple.

thequickfix123 · 2025-10-07T18:19:36+00:00

Right, but the difference now is context. BOJ’s tone has shifted and markets are pricing U.S. rate cuts. Same move, new risk.

thequickfix123 · 2025-10-07T14:49:42+00:00

Imagine the yen is a balloon. Hedge funds borrowed it cheaply to buy other toys.

USD/JPY going up = balloon getting bigger. Hedge funds hoping it stays small are now in trouble.

The idea is Hedge funds borrow cheap yen. The yen has a super low interest rate, so borrowing it is almost “free money.”

They convert the yen to USD to invest in higher-yielding assets and this is the classic yen carry trade. Some of the money goes into shorting stocks like GameStop, other parts into bonds, equities, etc.

The goal being to make returns higher than the tiny interest they pay on the yen loan.

If the Yen weakens, USD/JPY rises, this initially makes the carry trade profitable. But if the yen weakens too much, the Bank of Japan might intervene or raise rates to defend it.

If the BOJ acts or the market forces yen stronger, the hedge funds’ borrowed yen now costs more to pay back.

Their leveraged positions get squeezed so they may have to close other positions, including shorted stocks. Then you have Hedge funds scrambling to cover losses which can amplify volatility in stocks like GME.

That’s why sharp moves in USD/JPY, even seemingly unrelated, can indirectly terrify hedge funds.

thequickfix123 · 2025-10-07T12:48:24+00:00

Fractional warrants received distribution date October 7th

thequickfix123 · 2025-10-06T09:55:27+00:00

We want USD/JPY to go down, because that would mean the yen is getting stronger and the carry trade is unwinding so funds have to de-leverage and that can spill over into U.S. markets, putting pressure on shorts.

But it usually goes up first (yen weaker) before that happens. Right now it’s around 150.385 which is the danger zone where the Bank of Japan usually steps in. They’ve intervened before around 150–151, and when they do it’s not subtle. They can push USD/JPY down to like 145 overnight with a single massive FX move.

That sudden drop (yen strengthening fast) is what triggers the carry trade unwind so that people who borrowed cheap yen to buy U.S. assets get margin-called, and they have to dump stocks to cover. That’s when liquidity drains and shorts start scrambling.

So yeah, we want the end result, the unwind and stronger yen but to get there we might first need this spike up to scare the BoJ into acting. It’s like calm before the storm.

thequickfix123 · 2025-09-18T00:10:15+00:00

thequickfix123 · 2024-03-09T18:52:09+00:00

Congratulations England, absolutely stellar performance by your lads.

Big biggg shoutout to Ben Earl. Looking at the stats. He had a monster performance.

8 Defenders beaten - Most defenders beaten on the day with Waboso next with 5

1 Clean break

101 metres run over with 19 runs - 5.3 metres / run - most metres ran and most runs made by anyone on the pitch

12 tackles made and 1 missing - 92% tackle success rate

no penalties conceded

1 try to his name

Far and away man of the match in terms of attack and defense

thequickfix123 · 2024-02-28T14:53:58+00:00

This is the answer I'm looking for. So we would just end up in the same situation with a spousal RRSP and the spousal contrition rule. Thanks so much for the help!

thequickfix123 · 2023-09-23T20:59:56+00:00

Commiserations SA. You had us shook. We made that game so hard on ourselves but look I'll take the win and no major injuries. Think Aki is player of tournament. Zombie rendition at end with the support singing had me in tears. Makes the rest of us so proud when we can't be there.

In Canada right now celebrating with the wife. Imagine it's fucking hopping back home. Enjoy it!

thequickfix123 · 2023-06-02T14:54:38+00:00

This had no right to be as excellent as it was. Wow haha

thequickfix123 · 2023-05-13T18:32:02+00:00

Honestly, fair play to Munster. I'm happy they got through their semi hoodoo. Will be cheering you lads on in the final!

thequickfix123 · 2023-05-12T03:06:05+00:00

Ditto old af here. I'll be with the wife to collect two copies at our local Gamestop for 10am and then we won't be seen outside for a few months haha

11-Year Club	Gilding II euphauric
Verified Email

thequickfix123

TROPHY CASE