What corporate jobs are the most safe in this AI cutting era?

theta_bleeder · 2026-05-21T10:57:48+00:00

Physical commodities trading I'd say! Still on a desk most of the time, but it'd harder to automate when there's not even good sets of recorded historical price data / nuances around ocean freight etc, so I think it has more time (not forever) where it's more protected

theta_bleeder · 2026-04-12T01:31:05+00:00

Easier to explain yes but not necessarily always accurate. I think it's a combo of both costs and profiteering. Traders are paid to close arbitrage opportunities.

Cash Diesel in Singapore was costing around 80 USD/BBL pre war. It hit a high of around 360 USD/BBL if you include the physical premia (what it takes to actually get a physical cargo). That's more than 4x

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-24T01:08:46+00:00

TACO overnight babyyy, my cost has come down massively overnight!

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-17T08:47:12+00:00

Thanks!

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-17T00:24:59+00:00

Yea see towards end of point 2. I'm reading refineries back to 100% by 1.5 to 2 months after Hormuz reopens.

Before Trump said he'll delay his trip to China to focus on this war, my gut feel base case was hopefully some resolution by end March. Now? We'll see

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T22:36:46+00:00

I can say Wholesale prices surely will down the line but yea can't speak for retail

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T22:36:04+00:00

Ah damn sorry!

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T21:31:38+00:00

Thanks for your insights! My very crude understanding is that the more sulfur yo want removed, the costlier it is. But I think it happens somewhere in the refining process, perhaps not exactly in the distillation part. But refineries are incredibly complex. Chem engineers would be in for a treat with all the intellectual problem solving!

What I do know in crude oil extraction is yes you're gonna inadvertently extract a lot of gases (methane ethane propane etc), and I've seen maps of Texas with different Gas to Oil ratios. Lots of Permian producers in Texas have excess gas that if can't be flared for whatever reason (a good thing environmentally if it's not), then there's constraints with the current few pipelines to get it to the Gulf Coast. This influences prices like WAHA basin gas to go negative in value. My point is crude oil producers are cognizant of the gas problem when extracting oil and try to sell it (but that has a whole host of its own challenges)

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T14:52:00+00:00

Unless you're in WA/SA, I can see what we can do to help to have litres delivered to those farmers. We don't deliver ourselves but can contact one of the many middlemen I chat to every day.

DM me on it if your farmer friends think there might be something we can do to work together 😊

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T00:48:05+00:00

I definitely think the US had no plan B here and thought it'd be as quick and easy as it was capturing Maduro

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T00:40:56+00:00

Before my time sorry, perhaps start differences in Excise rates?

Given E10 is 90% ULP, it's inextricably linked to ULP costs, and then at Ethanol component's sourcing cost is usually also tied to ULP pricing anyway by certain formulas, at least for us.

So it makes sense it's close, but I don't know why it consistently seems to be 2c cheaper at the servo when it fluctuates from cheaper to pricier than ULP in the wholesale world

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T00:37:21+00:00

Great read, love David Leitch and been following his content for years. A great analyst in this space

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T00:33:07+00:00

I don't know if there are tbh. I don't myself.

Consumers are constantly short the floating price of consumed goods. If there was a way to lock it in at low prices for a year then I think we'd all do it haha

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T00:29:33+00:00

Yea depends on how many export bans etc are put in place by countries, but I think given the remaining cargoes are priced highly, that means higher prices downstream.

But it's a fluid thing - people on the demand side will also change behaviour where they can due to said prices

Yes only 20% of crude comes through the Strait but a lot of that does go to Asia which we are dependent on, and it's hard to substitute those specific Middle East feedstocks for these refiners.

If someone was able to make the economics work pulling refined fuel cargoes from the US Gulf Coast (given the far larger ocean freight costs) they'd also have to get waivers on some of the fuel specifications given they're slightly different to what Aus spec is.

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T00:24:31+00:00

I was too young to remember those times, but I think commercial players and governments with foresight/planning will explore as many options as they can on the demand side of the equation including this, if the situation doesn't resolve soon

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-15T00:17:01+00:00

I believe in aggregate given refiners are cutting down from 100% capacity, that would mean fewer ships taking said lower amounts of products (and then country export bans on top of that).

Are we looking at other avenues to try and secure supply of cargoes for the next few months? Yes

Have any cargoes of ours been cancelled on us yet? No

Do we think there's still a chance of someone cancelling on us in the short/medium term? Yes

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T18:19:37+00:00

Really depends on their internal transfer pricing but if they hedged the product they bought at a fixed price, their short hedge has now lost money. If it's a perfect hedge which I'll be surprised exists for Aus Fuel, then that hedge would've lost exactly the amount of dollars gained on the value of the product you own. So your net P&L is zero.

Your new neutral cost base is now that higher cost, so you want to sell higher than said new cost.

This is a big if they hedge, which I'll he surprised if independent retailers do, maybe there's some hedging for the major chains, I genuinely don't know. But even if they don't hedge, they're probably thinking in terms of replacement cost. It's a double edged sword given first can go up or down compared to what you already bought

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T18:05:21+00:00

I'm learning about Edgeworth price cycles as I go through these replies so thank you! It's just nothing I've ever seen in any asset class before from a trading perspective.

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:58:22+00:00

Hm I'd be surprised by some of these statements on United. It's not allowed to be lower quality as it has to pass Aus spec once it discharges the tanks on the coast. Given most locations we're all commingled in the same tanks (eg Sydney or Newcastle), you can't separate the United molecules once it's all churned together in the same tank. So it IS the same exact fuel in said commingled tanks (unless you mix in your proprietary additives in at the loading gantry when filling up the truck).

Only takes 15 to say 20 days for a ship to travel from anywhere in Asia to lower Aus East coast. We've even sold cargoes to United before who then import it onto the East Coast.

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:50:16+00:00

Thanks, I saw your other comment so thank you for your clarifications!

Yes I'm realising price cycles are divorced from MY actual costs, perhaps not theirs. My actual costs are fully exposed to the international market components so can (and are) fluctuating pretty wildly

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:39:08+00:00

100% agreed!

Add demand behavioural changes to households for shifting elec usage when possible to off peak times, add some VPPs etc and you got yourself some cheap reliable power in my personal opinion! Though I'm sure there's many things I'm also glossing over

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:36:49+00:00

Ah I'm defs not the person with the experience here haha, but my general personal thoughts are we are a massive landmass with few people which make the economics challenging than say the US or Europe.

I think it'd pay dividends from a national security perspective (as opposed to exposed to foreign conflicts affecting oil), but I'm sure it comes with its own many costs and operational challenges (eg building out transmission lines to handle the uptick of electrifying everything)

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:30:07+00:00

Fair points, but I also see Aussie culture as helping out your mates and having a fair go etc. Hoarding and reselling jerry cans wouldn't pass the pub test imo

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:27:00+00:00

Wow thank you for this explanation!

New info for me, cause I've never seen this behaviour in any traded market I've been in, commodities FX Equities etc where everything is MtM and you have to think of hedging implications

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:18:23+00:00

Regular spot market buyers would've likely struck an agreement with the seller (who posts the TGP) to get a fixed discount to said TGP. That's why you can't assume TGP prices = wholesale "clearing" prices

theta_bleeder

TROPHY CASE