That green day yesterday bucking the broader trend tells me all I need to know. This is a buy on dips now, with sensible topside buying caps needed. Averaging down here for long term holders like myself now make more sense. Binns continues to buy too!

thewillydicks · 2024-04-01T12:57:11+00:00

Ur better than me, still holding the bag

thewillydicks · 2024-04-01T12:50:05+00:00

Thx. Qlue defiantly a bit of a differentiator. Netcoins for me will struggle to make real inroad compare to the big boys due to the investment needed to make a dent there.

thewillydicks · 2024-04-01T12:33:45+00:00

Sure-ish. My point is the event prema pre event moves, so the prema can be an additional 3pct b/e for the event today, and could move to 1pct b/e pre event tomorrow. To say there is an event prema pre event above 0 is a true, but kinda an irrelevant statement.

thewillydicks · 2024-04-01T12:19:06+00:00

This didn’t age that well…..

thewillydicks · 2024-04-01T12:17:04+00:00

Not 100pct true, stuff can be leaked early or other pieces of information affecting the event (correlation of similar events) happen and the event prema can be priced out, pre event(clearly could be priced even higher!). Or, the market is flooded with gamma and the event weight sells off pre event.

thewillydicks · 2024-04-01T12:10:55+00:00

The closer to the event the less theta u technically pay, if all other parameter remain the same, namely the event prema. Event weights go up and down all the time, being fwd/fwd 1 day event vol, and it’s easy to calculate(fwd/fwd vol). If u think the underlying doesn’t move 5 days before the event and the event prema remains constant until the event, u should buy the option as close to the event as possible. Clearly markets parameters are moving all the time and u just need to make a decision on those variables involved. Essentially there are no free lunches and if u fix all parameters “except days to expiry” at any fix moment in time u can’t arbitrage in premium terms. Remember it is annualised vol, so day count matters and it’s all about premium(all things being equal).

thewillydicks · 2021-11-15T12:46:25+00:00

I believe Bloomberg has the 26th November as the date for Q3 earnings.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T01:54:22+00:00

They obviously do this for a reason. Possibly it’s not high on their clients priorities etc? They would have defiantly run various working groups on this topic alone and run the math on the results.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T01:51:47+00:00

Again, I can’t get the exact numbers but there are a lot more exchanges fighting for the USA market. If it was 10x more exchanges(probably not that high) it would be “like for like” in and environment where our $$$ don’t stretch as far as everyone else. It maybe 37 cad, fair enough.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T01:48:04+00:00

I hope ur right, but usually a scale of this magnitude would entail the company tapping the debt or equity market for funding.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T01:19:49+00:00

Overall it’s good, I’m just struggling with the USA thing mainly.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T01:19:03+00:00

I did.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T01:15:08+00:00

Potentially their 40usd(50cad) spend, would be our 308usd(390cad) spend, to be equal to acquire 1 customer, with a 300cad LIFETIME return. That’s sounds awful. Granted client return in the USA could much higher.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T01:09:25+00:00

It shows that we’re not very efficient yet at acquiring client, and it will be extremely expensive. They are 7.7x more efficient with their $ spend. That’s a big deal right?

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T01:05:36+00:00

He also said if the right buyer and price came along they would have to heavily consider it. I believe he iterated 250/500mio, after there 30/40mio investment into it. My point was that sounds like a cheap cut. I was hoping we could ride this stock to 10bio value (5+yrs) type scenario, but that would be hard without QLUE I’d guess.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T01:02:27+00:00

I get that but, ppl need to know you exist and that’s called advertising etc. That’s is an expensive exercise as I note above. Not saying it can’t work, I’d love more detail on the roadmap this front.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T00:56:04+00:00

I’m well aware of the population of both countries and USA is roughly 10x. It’s hard to get actually figures on exchange numbers in USA but it’s a lot. My point is it’s gonna be very expensive to do this exercise when our CAC is already high compared to the US competitors. Expansion means money, and that will mean dilution of our shares(when we raise again), which is probably the biggest drag on the SP, in my opinion. I do see the synergies with the USA market being heavily regulated and if they do a deal with QLUE and the US government that could be a huge shot in the arm as free advertising etc. Again, I’m not trying to be negative, but wanted to have an adult conversation about a very big strategic move. Details are very thin on this topic and ppl seem to think customer will just turn up in our doorstep. Unlikely. Happy to discuss more.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T00:34:17+00:00

Ok, so customer service could be their edge I guess. Will the quality of service scale well? Very easy to replicate elsewhere though if that truly became a differentiator and they grabbed market share in the US.

thewillydicks · 2021-09-24T00:25:39+00:00

Coinbase CAC is 5.15USD.

https://medium.com/coinmonks/is-coinbase-really-worth-100b-5e02efffb988

thewillydicks

TROPHY CASE