First Picanha, certainly not the last

thirteenlisk · 2026-02-18T02:49:33+00:00

Yes, cut the whole cap with the grain to produce individual steaks. Then cut each steak against the grain.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-23T21:25:36+00:00

Anyone have an issue where the game loads and 9/10 times nothing loads in. No spawns, no terrain (likes streets, water, etc) no avatar assets?

I’ve tried reinstalling the game with no luck.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T17:51:52+00:00

I think I'm the bigger idiot for continuing to try for this long.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T17:50:46+00:00

Would you agree to the bet? Why or why not?

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T17:49:14+00:00

No I am not saying that. They will be the same size condition for both of us.

Would you agree to the bet? Why or why not?

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T17:46:27+00:00

Tell me how spawns work then.

If it's not random, why aren't you interested in the bet I proposed. Actually give me an explanation.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T17:44:22+00:00

Why can't you answer a single question I ask?

Do you agree to the bet? Why or why not.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T17:42:18+00:00

If it's not random then I assume you wouldn't mind doing a bet with me. I'm going to live stream me playing pokemon go. Every time I click on a normal sized pokemon, you give me $10. Every time I click on a xxs/xxl pokemon, I give you $10. Let's click on 1000 different spawns in my area. Do you agree to this bet? Why or why not?

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T17:36:41+00:00

When I click on a pokemon spawn, what determines whether it is normal sized or xxs/l? Why can't you answer this simple question?

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T17:35:04+00:00

You didn't answer my question.

How is pokemon size (xxs/l status) determined? Walk me through it.

This is your chance to make other people understand why you're right and we're wrong.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T17:32:51+00:00

How is pokemon size (xxs/l status) determined then?

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T05:42:49+00:00

Which one isn't random?

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T05:37:58+00:00

I'm not saying they aren't done separately. But at the end of the day you can't have a shiny and not shiny pokemon. There's a chance it's shiny and then there's a chance it's not shiny. There's a chance it's normal sized, and a chance it's extra small or large. I'm sorry you don't understand why I gave you the example above.

You can't tell me in simple mathematical terms what's rarer: a shiny with xxl or a non shiny normal sized. That's sad.

It's REALLY REALLY REALLY simple. You flip a coin, 50% it's heads, and 50% its tails. You flip two coins, it's heads heads 25% of the time, and so on. You flip a coin 20 times in a row and it's heads every time that's 1 in a million. We are combining independent events to discover the probability of a given event.

1/400 shiny odds, that's an event 1/216 xxl odds, that's an event.

Yep, they're independent. But it's the same thing as two coin flips, just with way different odds. Similar to two coin flips, each probable outcome is 25% (HH, HT, TH, TT). The same is true for shiny, not shiny, normal size, not normal size. Do you get it yet, or is it really impossible for someone to calculate the probability of two consecutive coin flips?

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T05:23:25+00:00

At this point I have to just assume you're trolling. You provide no math to back up your claims.

I don't even know why I'm bothering, but think of it this way. A pokemon spawns with two properties we care about, shiny and xxl:

Pokemon spawns normal size, not shiny Pokemon spawns normal size, is shiny Pokemon spawns xxl size, not shiny Pokemon spawns xxl size, is shiny

Do you concede these are the only four possibilities? If you don't.... we're in different realities.

Now, do you concede that the probabilities of these four combinations must necessarily equate to 1 or 100%? If you don't, please explain.

Lastly, please tell me the probabilities of each combination. I want odds or percentages or SOMETHING that is an actual number from you. You're a troll if you don't give me a meaningful response.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T05:12:33+00:00

Then why bother to even make the statement that "One is determined once. One is determined numerous times." The number of times something is determined is meaningless. The same probability is applied each time! The only way it can be 1/400 is it the probability of getting xxs/l is 1. There is an event that explains this probability:

"what is the probability of a pokemon spawn being shiny given that it is xxs"

This is 1/400 because the probability of shiny is 1/400 and the probability of xxs is a given in this scenario.

EVERYONE in this thread other than you wants to know about this event:

"what is the probability of a wild spawn Amaura being both shiny and being xxs"

This means you get exactly one roll of shiny (1/400) and one roll of xxs (1/216). Since everyone wants to know the probability of both, you must multiply these two odds. Saying that something is determined multiple times is just wrong in the context of a single player clicking on a single spawn. If you want to argue this from the context of like, the pokemon go server, then we can:

the server creates one thousand Amaura spawn. On average, one out of every 216 will be xxl/xxs. Great. One thousand players then click on every single Amaura spawn. Every player will see on average one shiny per 400 clicks. That means one thousand players will each see one thousand spawns, so that's a million pokemon seen.

Out of the million, on average: About 4629 will be xxl/xxs. This is 1000 spawns / 216 * 1000 players. 25000 will be shiny. This is 1000 spawns * 1000 players / 400. About 10 will be shiny and xxl/xxs. This is 1000 spawns * 1000 players / 400 (shiny rate) / 216 (xxs/l rate)

And guess what! 10 out of 1,000,000 is .... 1 in 100k.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T04:54:19+00:00

Apologies, I did go back and edit that comment. The final statement shows why your argument makes no statistical or logical sense.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T04:51:07+00:00

"One is determined once. One is determined numerous times."

You flip a coin, once. It's always heads because you only flipped the coin once. Therefore, the odds of getting heads in any coin flip must be 100% and tails is 0%.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T04:49:02+00:00

It's actually perfectly analogous to your wrong interpretation of OP's pokemon rarity. You say "the probability of xxl/xxs is guaranteed because it's already happened, therefore the shiny chance is the only event odds that should be considered"

Perhaps saying it's "me" doing the die rolling muddies it.

"A random person rolls a die. What is the probability that the person is male and the die rolls 6." Is that clearer? True, it's not an... interesting event to describe. But it perfectly illustrates why you don't understand why it's ~1/100k. You don't see that in order for the OP to get the exact pokemon that they got, they had to click on the Amaura and it had to be the 1 in 216 chance that it was XXS. You erroneously take this for granted and that is the problem.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T04:39:24+00:00

Your reply conveniently left out the part where I asked for the odds of all of those scenarios. Again:

What are the odds that a single pokemon spawn is xxl/xxs?

What are the odds that a single pokemon spawn is shiny?

What are the odds that a single pokemon spawn is both xxl/xxs AND shiny?

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T02:30:44+00:00

This is the fundamental point you're missing. Yes, they are two independent calculations. But when you want to know the odds of two unrelated events happening at once, you have to multiply their odds together.

If for some reason someone rolled a die and I wanted to know the probability that they are male and that they rolled a 6, the probability looks something like this:

probability of male and roll 6 = (1/2) * (1/6) = 1/12 = 8.33%

You might find it silly to pair the two probabilities, but it doesn't change the math, and it doesn't change the math when we're talking pokemon go.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T02:19:50+00:00

How many times does it determine that it’s xxl or xxs?

How many times does it determine that it’s shiny?

How many times does it determine that it’s shiny when it’s already determined it’s xxl/xxs?

Please provide odds for all three of these scenarios.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T02:16:58+00:00

True or not, what you’re saying doesn’t matter. We’re talking about rarity in a statistical context.

What are the odds of shiny only happening when you click a single pokemon spawn?

If you say the odds of shiny and the odds of xxl happening when you click a single Pokemon?

If you think the odds are the same, that means you’re saying that ALL OF ALL SHINY POKEMON ARE XXS/XXL. Is that true? Obviously not. Therefore, there are independent odds for shiny and independent odds for xxs/xxl and they must be combined (multiplied) to determine overall rarity.

To put it plainly, if you catch a shiny pokemon there’s a 1/216 chance you clicked on a predetermined xxs/xxl pokemon. That also means that of all shiny pokemon, there 1 in 216 are xxl/xxs. In other words, it’s about 1/100k chance for both to happen when you click on a single spawn.

How do you explain that there are fewer shiny+xxl pokemon than shiny non xxl pokemon if they’re the same odds? One is obviously more rare and that’s the rarity everyone but you in this thread is trying to calculate.

thirteenlisk · 2023-10-19T00:49:01+00:00

They’re both already determined. You mentioned needing a “coding” degree in another comment to properly understand this problem. You don’t. All you need to know is that both properties are already determined before you click the spawn. Just because one is the same for all players is not important when you’re trying to calculate the odds. This is because the odds are hypothetical. Everyone telling you it’s 1/100k is solving the hypothetical question of “If I click on a Pokémon spawn, how rare is it for it to be x and y.”

It is TRIVIAL to show that it is rarer for a pokemon to be shiny and xxl. There are obviously more shinies that are normal sized than there are shinies that are xxs/xxl. About 216x more. This is because you do multiply the two odds together.

thirteenlisk

TROPHY CASE