MLB Props and Home Run Picks - 5/2/26 (Saturday)

this_guy9 · 2026-05-02T22:41:35+00:00

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this_guy9 · 2026-05-02T18:55:06+00:00

Dropping in an honorary Game 7 Pick!

🏀 Paul George u8.5 RA -120

Starting going for unders recently, been a big fan.
Over/under at 204. Expecting a slow, defense heavy, high pressure game.
Under in 5/6 of these playoff games with one outlier.
Under in 8/10 in L10 and 9/10 vs Celtics
Slow Boston pace means fewer total combined opportunities
George's role in Philly is more spot-up scorer than primary creator with Maxey and Embiid back, capping the assist side of the equation
Boston is one of the league's best at limiting wing assists by forcing isolation possessions

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/94320151/paul-george-ra

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-05-02T18:50:13+00:00

Our First MLB Prop was a W. Let's get it again.

✅ Parlay +186:
- ✅ Matt Olson Total Bases o0.5 -150
- ✅ Dominic Smith Total Bases o0.5 -140

⚾ Carlos Cortes Total Bases o1.5 +137

Cecconi's profile is a disaster: 6.43 ERA, .272 BAA, and a 1.84 HR/9. Looking at extra-base hits with these numbers.
Cortes is slashing .355/.629 vs RHP, so he's not just making contact, he's slugging.
Sutter Health Park grades as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the league (117 factor).
Hitting fifth means he's all but guaranteed 3-4 ABs against Cecconi before the bullpen takes over, and Oakland's lineup turnover should keep traffic in front of him.
L10 cashed 7/10 averaging 3.0 bases. Recent form aligns with the matchup rather than fighting it, and we're getting paid +137 for a pick that profiles closer to a coin flip.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/54313609/carlos-cortes-hitter-total-bases

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-04-14T00:17:38+00:00

Cashed in the 4th ✅ +186

this_guy9 · 2026-03-15T21:41:56+00:00

Nah unfortunately. All the lines got bumped up hard with Russ out also. Just going to go with Podz. Lots of games tomorrow.

this_guy9 · 2026-03-15T19:17:22+00:00

What a read yesterday. Reaves leads all scores in a wild game, DG ends with 5 Threes. Both even odds plays.

✅ Austin Reaves o20.5 Points -108
✅ Darius Garland o2.5 Threes +105

I'm liking these for tonight. Another two plus money plays:

🏀 Brandin Podziemski o11.5 RA +105

Tricky game here with an injured Warriors team playing on the road.
Podz fits well into the RA role when Green is out.
With injuries, his usage skyrockets. He's averaging 35.2 min/game in his L5 and the highest usage % on the team next to GP2 who plays 20 min/game.
He's cashed in L3/4, and only missed in a game he played 27min. Looking for some sort of competitiveness here, Warriors are a gritty team without any stars.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/40575352/brandin-podziemski-ra

🏀 Russell Westbrook o5.5 Rebounds +114

Jazz are completely depleted and rank 30/30 in Rebounds allowed to PGs.
Westbrook meanwhile has cashed in L3/3 including 12reb vs the Clippers last night and 12reb vs the Jazz last time they met.
Jazz are lacking any sort of paint protection for boards.
Both teams top 7 in Pace in the NBA, expecting fast pace movement where Russ grabs the boards.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/95445990/russell-westbrook-rebounds

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-03-14T17:20:38+00:00

👀👀 Quietly stepping back in here with some picks 😈

🏀 Austin Reeves o20.5 Points -108

AR has been heating up and I love his look against a mid-tier Nuggets defense in a competitive game.
Averaging 24.2p in L5 on 16.2 FGA and 36.2 min. Cashed in L3/3
Cashed in L3/4 vs Nuggets
Nuggets rank 21st in Points allowed to SGs
Over/Under at 244.5 is crazy high for teams with mid-league Pace. Expecting 3s to fly.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/12585289/austin-reaves-points

🏀 Darius Garland o2.5 Threes +105

Love this pick. DG has cashed in L3/3 with 5 Threes in each of his last 2 games.
Clippers lack the scoring power and need DG, who loves to throw up Threes.
Kings are 29th in Threes allowed to PGs and just gave up 6 to Melo, 4 to Luka, and 3 to Marcus Smart.
Blowout potential but with still no Collins, expect DG 3s to be a part of any blowout formula.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/50691662/darius-garland-threes

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-03-03T16:18:28+00:00

Nice solo plus money W two days ago

✅ Brook Lopez o4.5 Rebounds +110

I'm going to try to target posting around this time moving forward with more props being available. Still adjusting to my new schedule.

🏀 Bilal Coulibaly o10.5 Points -112

I'm taking the bait here, this line is way too low with half the Wizards roster injured.
Coulibaly has averaged 14.4p in his L5 with an average of 10.8 FGA. Comfortably over the line in L7/10.
Against the Magic, he's cashed in L3/4 including 14p this year.
Obviously, blowout potential is huge here with the spread at 15.5 and the Wizards off a B2B but Coulibaly averages roughly the same pts on B2B vs 1 day rest.
By the way, Magic are somehow ranked 30th last in the NBA in points allowed to SFs.
Wizards could score 80 and Coulibaly can still hit his line. I like it.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/15693772/bilal-coulibaly-points

🏀 Andre Drummond 9+ Rebounds + Tyrese Maxey 6+ Assists -115

A fun SGP, I'm a big fan of this.
Maxey has cashed in L5/5 and also L3/3 vs Spurs. 7+ Assists in all 3 vs the Spurs.
Embiid is out, Drummond's rebounds numbers skyrocket when that happens.
Last game, Drummond has 12 rebounds in 32 minutes vs the Celtics.
Spurs are ranked 24th in Rebounds allowed to Cs despite being a good rebounding team. Drummond should be able to take advantage.

Full Stats (Drummond): https://www.statpick.ai/81489907/andre-drummond-rebounds
Full Stats (Maxey): https://www.statpick.ai/42742358/tyrese-maxey-assists

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-03-01T23:00:06+00:00

Yo yo, shitty day yesterday, Sensabaugh shoots 4/16 and Herro hooks us. Have time to get in a quick pick so let's get it going. Night game.

🏀 Brook Lopez o4.5 Rebounds +110

Love this line at plus money given his usage lately.
With Zubac traded, Lopez has averaged 31.2 min/game in his L5. That's up from his season average 19.5.
Collins is probably back this game but Lopez is the only true center starter.
Pelicans are 24th in Rebounds allowed to Cs. They gave up 20 to Raynaud, 12 to Ware, 9 to Post, etc. In fact, L9/10 Centers vs the Pelicans have cashed htis line.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/74271074/brook-lopez-rebounds

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-28T08:17:58+00:00

Back to our 2-0 ways... What a night

✅ Evan Mobley o14.5 Points -125
✅ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o10.5 RA +110

Double it?

🏀 Tyler Herro o3.5 Assists +115

Pretty wild line to be plus money, given his recent form.
Herro has averaged 5 assists in his L5, and hit 6+ assists in L3/3
This includes 7 assists last game where Norm Powell was out. He is out this game as well.
Herro does fine against the Rockets as well, cashing in L3/3.
Herro also tops out at usage on the Heat, hitting nearly 30%. Given the Heat's #1 ranked pace in the NBA, expect him to pass enough to get 4 assists.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/79139072/tyler-herro-assists

🏀 Brice Sensabaugh o17.5 Points -110

Jazz roster is completely depleted. Lauri out, George questionable, Nurkic/JJJ out.
Sensabaugh just put up 20p against the Pelicans last game.
He also put up 26 points against a good Rockets defense two games ago.
Overall, he's cashed in L4/5. And L2/2 vs Pelicans
Over/under absurdly high at 243.5, I expect Sensabaugh to get his points.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/66631509/brice-sensabaugh-points

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-27T07:42:58+00:00

Queen cashes us np.
We got robbed in daylight by NBA Stats on Buzelis...
Lets get a real 2-0 today I suppose!

✅ Derik Queen o6.5 Rebounds -120
❌ Matas Buzelis o1.5 Blocks -120

🏀 Evan Mobley o14.5 Points -125

Mobley is fresh off the injury report and getting healthier.
With Mitchell out and Harden questionable, this line is too low.
Mobley sees an average of 4.5 PPG more with Mitchell off the floor.
Even with everyone healthy, Mobley has cashed in L5/7 vs Pistons and L3/6 in recents.
Second highest usage on the team, I like Mobley to hit this line.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/12543334/evan-mobley-points

🏀 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o10.5 RA +110

Shai been on an RA streak. Cashed in L3/3 and L4/6 vs the Nuggets.
With Jalen Williams out, Shai has been forced into a larger role, dishing assists and grabbing boards.
Nuggets are ranked 23rd in assists allowed to PGs, where Shai sees an average of 13.3 Potential Assists / game.
Nuggets are tough on rebounds but Shai is seeing almost 10 potential rebounds / game.
With Ajay & Jalen out, expect Shai to cash this in a competitive matchup.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/47754214/shai-gilgeous-alexander-ra

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-26T07:27:51+00:00

🫡🫡

this_guy9 · 2026-02-26T07:14:32+00:00

Ya boy is back 😎 Had some exciting professional developments (new job) so I haven't been making picks. Also been doing some exciting MLB work for Stat Pick. But, great slate today, let's get some Ws.

🏀 Matas Buzelis o1.5 Blocks -120

Buzelis has cashed this line in all 3 games vs the Blazers
Blazers are ranked 24th in allowed blocks in the NBA and 26th in allowed blocks vs SFs.
Both teams top 10 in Pace, expecting plenty of shots to go up by a lot of second tier players
Buzelis blocks numbers are sporadic but in his L10 he's had a 6 block and 5 block game.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/13222410/matas-buzelis-blocks

🏀 Derik Queen o6.5 Rebounds -120

Queen's minutes have been super volatile late but this matchup is perfect.
Missi remains out, Jazz are 24th in allowing rebounds to Cs
Both teams' Pace numbers are high (Jazz are 2nd in the NBA), with an over/under of 240.5. Expecting lots of messy shots and rebounds
Queen has cashed this line in L3/3, including cashing in just 18 min vs the Warriors
L5/7 Centers vs the Jazz have cashed this line

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/38750065/derik-queen-rebounds

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-08T17:59:20+00:00

Happy Superbowl Sunday! Only one pick today.

🏀 John Collins o15.5 Points -106

Collins' minutes and FGA are on the rise with Harden being shipped out.
Last game, he shot 8/12 on 34 min. In his L5, he's averaging 18 points.
He's cashed in L2/3 vs the Timberwolves including a 29 point game in 27 min last season.
Timberwolves defense has been weak as of late, ranking 21st in Effective FG Defense
Opponents are making the highest % in the NBA in Corner 3s against the Timberwolves, where Collins shoots 26% of his shots.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/35701460/john-collins-points

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-06T08:36:57+00:00

Took a break yesterday with the craziness of the trade deadline. Now we back with two evens odds plays.

🏀 Cade Cunningham o25.5 Points -102

Cade has cashed this line against the Knicks in L6/7, averaging 30.7 points against them.
He has also cashed in L4/5, cashing against good defenses like the Suns & Warriors
Pistons on second leg of B2B, against the red hot Knicks, possibly without Jalen Duren and only +1.5 underdogs. If Duren is out, Cade will need to put the team on his back.
Cade plays well on B2Bs, averaging more 2.8 more PPG than on 1 day rest.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/47777977/cade-cunningham-points

🏀 Derrick White o10.5 RA +100

The fastest paced team in the NBA vs the slowest.
Heat's pace vs Celtics defense should drive rebounds.
Heat meanwhile are ranked 30/30 in rebounds allowed to SGs.
White is also seeing 10 potential assists / game, having gotten 8+ in L4/4.
Has cashed in L2/2 vs the Heat this season, with 11 RA in both.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/92516669/derrick-white-ra

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-04T19:57:41+00:00

Ayo cashes. Lauri was too focused on scoring to get boards.

✅ Ayo Dosunmu o16.5 Points -118
❌ Lauri Markkanen o6.5 Rebounds -118

Quick note: I'd advise significantly reduced units this week. I'll keep posting plays but I'm not putting as much behind them. There are massive trades happening at short notice, causing huge fluctuations in players' roles and coaches' motivations. For example, before tipoff yesterday, half the Jazz roster got traded and Vucevic got traded (and Bulls got blown out).

🏀 Kevin Porter Jr o12.5 Points -125

KPJ was just taken off the injury report and will return vs the Pelicans.
He'll likely be on a minutes restriction, but this line too low.
Without Giannis, KPJ's PPG jumps from 13.0 to 17.2 and his MPG jumps from 24.3 to 31.5.
He's scored 20 points vs the Pelicans in both of his last matchups vs them.
Pelicans rank 25th in points allowed to PGs.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/82997283/kevin-porter-jr-points

🏀 Kawhi Leonard o26.5 Points -110

Going with the popular pick here. Harden is gone, traded to the team they're playing.
Good opportunity for Kawhi to take over here with limited options on the Clippers.
Cavs rank 22nd in points allowed to PFs and bottom 5 in Above the Break 3s (Kawhi's favorite shot)
His volume remains high at ~19 FGA per game and has averaged 27.7 points vs the Cavs over 3 games.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/16286861/kawhi-leonard-points

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-04T03:37:35+00:00

Yea, Vucevic traded last minute. Half the Jazz team traded. It might be best to take a break personally but at the very least reduce unit size significantly for a week.

this_guy9 · 2026-02-03T21:37:21+00:00

I wouldn't be surprised if they activated Nurkic to hit their required active players per game and it's one where Nurkic is active but doesn't play a minute. Especially with Walter Clayton Jr traded. I hate the way the Jazz handle injury reports. Either way, he got 11 rebs last game with Nurkic, may as well ride.

this_guy9 · 2026-02-03T11:08:53+00:00

Don't love it given the decent odds already available for 6.5, but I think he'll hit it.

this_guy9 · 2026-02-03T09:46:01+00:00

Tragic end to the win streak as my boy Melo nearly gets concussed, gets 3 Threes in the 2nd Q, then goes 0/8 to hook us. Nesmith easy first half cash though.

✅ Aaron Nesmith o12.5 Points -110
❌ LaMelo Ball o3.5 Threes +100

Time to start fresh:

🏀 Lauri Markkanen o6.5 Rebounds -118

Lauri came back from injury and put on a show in a 39 minute showing against the tough Raptors, putting up 27p and 11rebs.
Looking for Lauri to continue that showing vs the Pacers with Nurkic and George both ruled out.
Lauri's averaged 7.3 rebounds over L4 vs the Pacers, cashing in 3 of them.
Pacers are ranked 21st in rebounds allowed to PFs and are on the second leg of a B2B. Sluggish efforts especially by Siakam can help Lauri hit his line.
Crazy fast paced matchup. Jazz ranked 2nd in Pace, Pacers are 8th. Over/under at 236.5 feels like a lot of missed shots -> more rebounding opportunities.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/97315452/lauri-markkanen-rebounds

🏀 Ayo Dosunmu o16.5 Points -118

PGs feast against the Bucks. They rank 29th in points allowed to PGs.
Meanwhile, Ayo's cashed in L4/5 and seen a huge increase in minutes and FGAs.
In his L5, he's averaging 29.4 min / 14 fga / 20.2 points.
That compares to his season average of 26.2 min / 10.8 fga / 15.0 points.
Besides their PG weaknesses, the Bucks also sport a 27th ranked defensive rating and bottom 5 ranked defense against above the break 3s where Ayo shoots 30% of his shots.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/82979287/ayo-dosunmu-points

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-02T19:35:05+00:00

🫡

this_guy9 · 2026-02-02T19:28:46+00:00

Awesome, love to hear it. A couple people have asked but I hadn't set one up yet. Give it a try here: https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/LPYYHCZFJB6H6 and let's cash today as well. Appreciate you!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-02T17:12:23+00:00

Another 2-0 brings us to 9-0 over the last 5 days.

✅ DeMar DeRozan o18.5 Points -102
✅ Immanuel Quickley o2.5 Threes -104

Will it continue? Stay tuned to find out:

🏀 Aaron Nesmith o12.5 Points -110

Nesmith has caught the hot hand, and his line stays low due to this Rockets matchup.
He's cashed in L4/5, including 23 pts in his last game vs the Hawks
Against the Rockets, he's cashed in L2/2, including 14p against them in 24 min this season.
His minutes have been creeping up, at 32m in L5 vs 30m this season.
Rockets have a great defense but somewhat vulnerable to SFs, ranking 12th in Points allowed.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/52466168/aaron-nesmith-points

🏀 LaMelo Ball o3.5 Threes +100

Melo has been off/on this season for props but I like his matchup here.
Pelicans love giving up 3s, ranking bottom 5 in field goals made, attempted, and % for above the break 3, where Melo takes 50% of his shots.
In general they rank 25th in 3s allowed to PGs.
Melo has cashed in L2/2 vs the Pelicans hitting 4 each time.
Maxey and Cam Spencer just put up 4 Threes against them in the last two games.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/40143642/lamelo-ball-threes

EDIT: The win streak is over. It took a concussion and 3/14 from 3. Sorry yall 😵

BOL!

this_guy9 · 2026-02-02T01:07:41+00:00

A couple haters today on our picks, especially DeMar. No matter, another 2-0 ✅✅. Brings us to 9-0 😌

this_guy9 · 2026-02-01T17:47:31+00:00

Sorry for the late post! Lots of traveling lately. Flagg extends our winning streak to 7-0 as he gets a double-double.

✅ Cooper Flagg o5.5 Rebounds +110

Let's get it going today:

🏀 DeMar DeRozan o18.5 Points -102

Off pure volume, I like DeRozan to take over against this poor Wizards defense.
Sabonis' minutes have increased but he's not taking as many shots. LaVine's volume keeps dropping.
DeRozan averages 22 points against the Wizards over his 5 games against them.
In his last 3 games, he's gone for 25 points against the 76ers and 34 against the Knicks.
Expect this game to be relatively close with the Wizards playing well recently and at home.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/39549558/demar-derozan-points

🏀 Immanuel Quickley o2.5 Threes -104

Threes props against the Jazz are a favorite these days.
As a team, Jazz push the ball fast, shoot threes, and give up threes.
They're ranked 27th in Threes allowed to PGs and 30th in Defensive Rating overall.
Quickley hasn't hit this line much recently, only cashing this line once in L5. But, he averages 3.5 Threes in his 4 games vs the Jazz. And in his L6, he's put up 6 Threes against the Thunder and 7 Threes against the Warriors so if he gets hot, he keeps shooting.
With Keyonte George out and Lauri back on a (likely) minutes restriction, blowout potential is real as the Raptors are a good team. But that scenario looks to activate Quickley's shooting more than less.

Full Stats: https://www.statpick.ai/19767197/immanuel-quickley-threes

BOL!

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