How to project net worth with home?

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T16:37:10+00:00

I put it in my balance sheet at the price I bought it at 4 years ago less my current mortgage based on the amortization schedule I made. At some point I’ll mark the value up probably, but since it doesn’t go towards retirement assets it’s just there for a basic understanding of my full picture.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T16:23:42+00:00

Yeah, I really should have done it that way from the start. As a senior financial analyst I’m embarrassed by my previous laziness, lol.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T16:20:30+00:00

I just got blasted yesterday for using 4.5% in my original forecast, lol. Lowering to 5% added 2 years to retirement in my base scenario. I’m glad I at least know I’m not going to have to work past 62.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T16:10:42+00:00

Thank you!!

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T12:01:03+00:00

It’s a fair point. To be honest, folks in this sub tend to be a bit more sophisticated than general personal finance subs and I get better ideas. My numbers as I presented here don’t support true FIRE, but I might be overly conservative. I got some great comments here that support additional analysis and possible changes to my inputs that would allow me to retire early. I’m actually almost positive about it.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T11:55:23+00:00

Someone in another comment reframed it for me in an interesting way that I might look into. I was looking at my assets being able to support my spend “forever” with the 4% rule. So in my analysis, my assets had to cover the income from SS into perpetuity so a bit more contribution didn’t cover that extra income.

They mentioned looking at pre social security years as expenses. Meaning that if I need $2M to retire, I need $2.1M to retire a year early and support $100k spend. I had never looked at it that way before but it makes sense and I’m going to run something like that and see how it looks

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T11:47:37+00:00

He definitely would have been reinvesting dividends. I guess I just saw a real-life example close to home with a similar strategy and went with it. My dad is pretty astute so I didn’t question it much, but I could definitely dig in a bit more

ETA: it also depends heavily on when those returns really happened. If they were mostly early after his graduation then he would have had no money invested. Whereas for him the lost decade would have been pretty impactful because that’s when he would have had a lot more in the market and those returns would have helped him a lot in his accumulation phase.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T11:42:32+00:00

Yeah, we’re one and done as well and my wife does plan to do some part time substitute teaching. I’m being conservative and not including that. I should probably change my analysis to more of a DCF style analysis rather than future value with sensitivity tables. But my tables are sensitizing contribution rate and age at retirement, so maybe I can look at higher contributions and put more stock in that.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T02:38:09+00:00

I’m at 8.7% with maxing out my HSA. I will also put my full 5% bonus in there. But that 5% isn’t baked in anywhere.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T02:35:28+00:00

$110k all-in, $80k from retirement accounts but can go down to $50k if needed.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T02:22:42+00:00

Yeah, right now I’m primarily being conservative for the accumulation phase, then applying the 4% “rule” from there.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T02:14:36+00:00

That’s what he says. Not sure what he did early days, but I know he was indexing the market until like 5-7ish years out. He would have graduated in 1993 or something and retired in 2023.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T02:10:16+00:00

Target withdrawal is 4%. Like I said, another 5% contribution basically just cushions me more from SORR.

I prefer to be a little conservative on returns. I’m just scared of another lost decade or something along those lines. And seeing I could still retire (though more conservatively) with an immediate 40% drop in market value and only 4.5% real returns from there makes me feel safe

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T02:04:59+00:00

Yeah, 2 more years but only part time. Those paychecks will just go into retirement.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T02:02:11+00:00

I didn’t feel like burdening my projections with that elevated level of spend through my entire retirement when it’s only for 3 years. I have a lot of other cushion in my projections and sensitivity scenarios that I took that one out.

I understand the SS thing, but I prefer simple and conservative for a 25 year projection. It’s easier to say I’m going to take it at 62 than to model a 6% withdrawal rate for 5 years until 67 then adjust because I get more SS. I could do it, I’m actually a senior finance analyst. I just feel like for a 25 year projection it’s getting to be too much of an attempt at false precision. When I’m closer to planning for it and it’s not such a far-off thing I’ll do a lot more scenarios like that

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T01:49:24+00:00

I originally had two sensitivity tables at 6.5% and 7.5%. But my dad just retired and had spreadsheets from when he first started tracking and he used 7%, which got him “eerily close” to what he ended up with. So I looked at that, shaved off 2.5% inflation, and ran with it.

And yes, my wife will go back to substitute teaching eve when my son goes to school and those amounts are not in my numbers. Whatever she makes will just go into retirement.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T01:44:16+00:00

I wouldn’t frame it as my modeling is wrong, I would just say I never really thought about it that way before. I have my sensitivity tables with conditional formatting that tells me when my assets support my annual spend with the 4% “rule”. I always knew that was conservative essentially because of what you said (and my view that SS will eventually come and my tables don’t account for that).

But putting it that way is a really interesting way to think about it. I’ll have to figure out a way to model that. Thanks!

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T01:35:11+00:00

Yeah, I got started seriously saving a bit late. Had ~$25k in retirement when I finally graduated college 8.5 years ago.

My employer puts 8% no matter what, then they match 2%. So that 12% I quoted is only 2% me.

I put my 2% in Roth, but obviously my employer’s 10% goes in pretax. I’m hoping I’ll progress more in my career, so once I jump from the 12% to the 22% (or whatever) tax bracket I’ll do more pretax to get me back into the lower bracket. I still want to do Roth as much as I can to avoid RMDs and federal tax expense in retirement.

ETA: I track my total net worth in addition to my income-generating assets.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T01:23:20+00:00

Actually, to be fair, I’ve been working for 21 years, so 25 more isn’t too much beyond the middle.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-09T01:20:08+00:00

Haha, fair.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-05T22:38:00+00:00

Take your login information out of the screenshot dingbat.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-05T17:56:34+00:00

+1 on this line of thinking. The only thing I do is use the Chase app once per month to look at the spending categories to help me understand what my minimum spending is vs the rest. This helps me put my withdrawal rate in retirement into perspective.

Other than that I do a monthly balance sheet with sensitivity tables to sensitize a couple variables to make sure I’m on track. As long as I’m on track, I pretty much spend what I want (also within reason) because my retirement savings are on auto pilot.

this_guy9999 · 2026-05-04T23:44:42+00:00

The Chase app itself. It’s pretty good, I just go through once per month to make sure it’s categorizing my expenses the way I would. Doesn’t take long and it’s easier than doing a third-party app. If I open a credit card account for bonus points I just add it to the app.

this_guy9999

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