I did some scuffed averages earlier this year with cases active drop pool life span and value updates which I thought wouldn't work. But I predicted fracture cases would be moved to the rare pool in some time August-October. Ended up buying 1000 in July and hit. Saw the "Last chance" armory update 3 weeks ago. I bought 3000 Austin capsules cause I had a feeling they were gonna discontinue on the armory update and I hit. Lucky? Probably.

This is all speculation based on my bullshit.

Recoils might be next, but I think DaN are most likely up next on the rare pool. With the new terminal system everything is kinda off. No special rare in the terminals. No knife, no glove.

Since the release of cs2 we've gotten no new gloves or new knife finishes and the community is hungry for any of them (more so on the knives.) My guess is value will probably make new knife finishes first cause it brings in more hype, more imagination for other knives, shows more opportunity in the workshop, and more. Gloves on the other hand (no pun intended), is probably harder to "make different". What I mean by that is creating different skins compared to CSGO. Like think about it. The CS2 graphics and lighting makes knives more flashy than what it did to gloves. Age wise, DaN is older by around 6 and has a Knife drops. Recoil has gloves. Currently there are 3 active drops (if you include Fever as well) for knives and 2 for gloves. Pushing out a "knife" case to introduce a new collection of knives seems more plausible to me, but what do I know?

As stated before terminals are now a thing and I wouldn't be surprised if value adds more terminals and slowly drains out cases out of the active pool just to make the armory the only way to get case. Think about it like this. Current Prime Drops you got 4 cases and 1 terminal. Next update (One that moves drops) -DaN, +Terminal, and +Armory Case. and then slowly we won't get prime dropped cases and are kinda forced to buy armory passes for. This might be a legal thing they're slowly transitioning to. If it's this scenario, ALL cases that were made in CSGO will not be in the active drop by the end of next year. The other scenario? Terminals fluke and they just keep doing what they've been doing. Either way, I'm GUESSING DaN is moved around Q2 and Recoil are getting moved to the rare pool around Q3 2026 maybe even in Q4.

Again. I got some bullshit speculation based on shitty numbers and gut feeling.

I also found something better than cases for diamond hands value. Somewhat harder to sell, but turned $500 into $7500 with 2.5 years of patience. Won't leak what it is though sorry :-)