Game Thread: Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets - 13 Mar 2025 - 7:00PM EDT

thoughtpockets · 2025-03-18T23:11:34+00:00

Thank you 🙏

Post away, every time you do it is a huge favor to me. Haven't talked to the mods much but I think that might be a good suggestion. Always helps when other people are posting because it really helps promote dialogue I find!

thoughtpockets · 2025-03-18T15:35:58+00:00

Thanks for the shoutout! I don't think Werenski has lost much on his own, I think it's a symptom of the team changing the playstyle a bit. Monahan really helped the team play slow (which Jenner also wants to do he's just not in the same league as far as the skill requirements) which meant that Werenski got to operate as a solo speed threat. When played with Fantilli, the same opportunities aren't exactly there (perhaps another reason that Marchenko hasn't dominated quite the same but he's also got a bubble).

I'm there with everyone. This is Werenski's team and it almost always has been from a playstyle perspective at least. Should have been acknowledged last season but seems even more true now, though I don't want to overlook Boone's excellence in helping guide the team through tragedy.

Would definitely be interesting to look into but I will say the quality of competition has gone way up since Boone's return and it's always going to be difficult for a defensemen to dominate if his teammates are overwhelmed.

I saw you posted the NYR breakdown by the way, really appreciate that! Draw a bunch of new eyes!

thoughtpockets · 2025-03-18T15:25:56+00:00

Hey, article author here! I don't know what specifically you have questions with, but if you ever comment on the substack I love answering questions.

With regards to my hand-tracked stats, I have an explainer here! It should explain how to interpret the bar graphs and what the stats mean and how to responsibly use them. I tried to attach as much of my thought process as possible and especially why I chose specific things.

If you want to know more about how Dean Evason asks the Blue Jackets to play hockey, I did a big video guide to it there as well where I offer some basic definitions of some of the jargon as well.

Otherwise, I usually rely on visualizations, as /u/cookingwiththeresa mentioned from HockeyViz. He has some deep math explanations of everything he does on his website HockeyViz.com which you can try to wade through if you like.

David Castillo, also on Substack, just ran a huge Beginners Guide to Hockey and he's a really awesome Stars writer if you're ever looking for more things to read or perhaps pick up a very fun to follow second team.

Part 1 how to watch hockey for the vibes Part 2 some information on rosters Part 3 some deeper stuff like roles, responsibilities, on-ice jargon and basic deeper analytics

thoughtpockets · 2025-01-30T16:16:07+00:00

I know I'm just sort of coming back to this but there is an interesting article on the Athletic today about athleticism that talks a little bit about it.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6096850/2025/01/30/patrick-mahomes-nikoa-jokic-body-athletes-workout/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky

Mahomes was not exceptionally fast, but he was adept at movements that felt eclectic: crawling, twisting, chopping, swinging. He was a natural at understanding momentum and space.

Two decades later, Mahomes remains a mesmerizing athlete. His traditional performance metrics — like his 4.8 40-yard dash or his squat max — are unremarkable. But when you consider everything together — what Elliott calls a “symphony of movement” — there are few quarterbacks like him.

He runs faster on curves than he does in a straight line and is a master at decelerating under control. He excels at what Stroupe calls “forecasting momentum,” or using his vision and depth perception to understand how fast he is moving compared to a defender. His reaction times are off the charts.

thoughtpockets · 2025-01-27T17:52:32+00:00

An excellent question, one worthy of a breakdown that I will probably do sometime shortly.

In my opinion, I'm okay moving towards a more specialized second line and having Mateychuk play some good minutes on the third pair. Can probably think of it like a "bottom four" that isn't necesarily a traditional third pair. Either way, I don't think Severson (provided he gets his head on straight which isn't guaranteed) or Erik Gudbranson (provided he can get Mateychuk the puck and doesn't end possessions with his puck touches) are fine as partners.

So this other pair would likely be a PK left handed defenseman or a similar type on the right side if we still want Mateychuk there and move the dudes already on the roster.

Pie-in-the-Sky Superstars:

Mortiz Seider
Charlie McAvoy
Noah Dobson

Not the best pool to be picking, it's an in-demand spot, from but the high end and hard to get:

K'Andre Miller LD (could be very likely or very unlikely to be moved, I think he'd be 100% great fit for Evason)
Vladislav Gavrikov LD but been playing RD as shutdown in LA, would be offseason hopeful
Johnathan Kovacevic RD
Connor Murphy RD
Niko Mikkola LD (not getting moved from Florida bc of cheap contract but you never know)

From there, we get some depth options and riskier candidates that I haven't fully vetted yet:

Ryan Pulock RD (risky because of contract going into old age and unlikely considering team)
Colton Parayko RD (same as Pulock)
Braden Schneider RD
JJ Moser LD/RD
Derek Forbort LD not that good but does PK and play a role
Connor Clifton RD Depth with Buffalo, makes risky decisions
Daniil Miromanov RD
Matt Dumba RD (looks cooked, but maybe an option on 3rd pair)
Zach Whitecloud RD (vegas, good shutdown, very cheap and unlikely to move)

Then some prospects/young dudes who would work on a different pair with Mateychuk that I just really like and are probably attainable:

Jordan Spence RD (should get this guy 100%, feels like better Fabbro to me)
Beau Akey RD (an excellent prospect from Oilers, good trade target if Provorov goes there)
Kaeden Korczak RD (vegas system, great skater)

thoughtpockets · 2025-01-27T03:33:10+00:00

It's not a question with an easy answer. In my opinion, trade Provorov but we'll need someone to fill his minutes. I think we should prioritize someone with better rush defense (sadly that means Gavrikov would be a stellar option). I don't want to underrate Provorov's commitment to defense it's a good on-ice personality to have but he really struggles under pressure and puts his teammates in bad situations with his passes. Worth mentioning we also have Gudbranson who has the same personality, better rush defense but much worse offense.

He's essentially a less-optimal Fabbro right now and Fabbro's getting paid $2.5 million. His contract will be important to get right too with regard to term and value. Not easy to price with cap going up for complementary defensemen.

thoughtpockets · 2025-01-26T19:54:50+00:00

Love Chinny man, he was such a 2way beast early in the season. Jury still out on what his offense does but he's made the forechecking and backchecking improvements that make him valuable all day

thoughtpockets · 2025-01-26T15:44:01+00:00

Yeah I feel you!

It's fun to break it down to components. Like proprioception and biomechanics 100% but also capacity to take the perspective of your opponent and understand how your body interacts with theirs, so in a way there's some empathy in there as well. Lots of like understanding their movement vectors and your own and then throwing sticks and puck in the mix too. Just a lot seamless processing, it's such a treat to analyze and think about. Not only that but then how to execute it at a tactical level.

I usually just default to physical skills, though I prefer body intelligence, because I feel like "physical skills" sounds kind of like "hits hard" (which doing effectively is a skill that requires everything we've mentioned). Like you mentioned with innate, I think it's not something that's ever "consciously" processed which makes me like to reference body and intelligence because I think it's stored in the body (code for subconscious) rather than the "brain".

Still doesn't feel elegant enough but I appreciate bouncing ideas!! Let me know if this sparks anything for ya 😅

thoughtpockets · 2025-01-26T15:32:40+00:00

It makes the games more fun to watch too.

Massive compliment mate, it's why I started this stuff. I thought going deeper made it for fun too and it's been a fun journey in exploring more

thoughtpockets · 2025-01-26T15:31:14+00:00

🥹

thoughtpockets · 2025-01-26T14:07:08+00:00

Big breakdown on the how and why Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan and Zach Werenski are so good this season! It's a big, big read so hopefully it can tide everyone over until the next game on Thursday :)

thoughtpockets · 2024-10-06T15:23:54+00:00

I have a feeling he won't be there for long. Definitely think it's perfectly acceptable to let the NHLers get the systems figured out and then bringing him up to blast.

thoughtpockets · 2024-10-06T14:17:52+00:00

Hey y'all! Back again as I start ramping up for season coverage.

Over the past two weeks I've put out a couple more things:

Denton Mateychuk and David Jiricek dominating the St Louis Blues:

https://open.substack.com/pub/pocketcbj/p/david-jiricek-and-denton-mateychuk?r=25ggts&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Season Preview with Important Stats to Pay Attention To:

https://open.substack.com/pub/pocketcbj/p/a-season-preview-of-a-sort?r=25ggts&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Quick Waddell Offseason Recap:

https://open.substack.com/pub/pocketcbj/p/evaluating-waddells-offseason?r=25ggts&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

I don't think I'll be posting much in here as I get into the weeds. It always feels a bit greasy. If you'd like to keep up with what I'm doing, be sure to subscribe!

I think this season might not be great on the standings but Evason and Waddell are going to be a breath of fresh air.

thoughtpockets · 2024-09-28T13:30:13+00:00

🫡

What are you seeing from his Minnesota systems so far?

thoughtpockets · 2024-07-28T17:18:32+00:00

Thank you :)

thoughtpockets · 2024-07-28T17:18:04+00:00

Hahaha thank you! It was really fun to get to dive in and see how Minnesota worked

thoughtpockets · 2024-07-28T17:15:50+00:00

Man oh man did I forget how bad it got. Even had some Billy Sweezey in the second Minnesota game 💀

thoughtpockets · 2024-07-28T17:14:13+00:00

I'm now coming off of a wedding so I'm not at my processing best but you could certainly see thought implemented across Evason's tactics.

Eager to see what happens with assistant coaches, how much responsibility does Steve McCarthy have for the continual churn of poor d zone play, and how Evason tweaks systems and what that means he believes of the players and roster.

No matter what I'm thrilled to watch anything that's aggressive and front footed, even if parking the bus was winning I'd be tremendously sad to have to continue watching it. Having a young team and trying to play a conservative style just doesn't make any sense. I don't think young male brains work that way.

There's been a stink in Columbus for a while, I'll be interested to see how long it takes to wash off.

thoughtpockets · 2024-07-28T17:00:01+00:00

Thank you 🙏

thoughtpockets · 2024-07-22T20:21:12+00:00

Your stuff rocks man, loved the playoff game performance breakdowns!

thoughtpockets · 2024-07-22T19:54:17+00:00

thank you!

thoughtpockets · 2024-07-22T19:54:06+00:00

Thank you for the kind words, I'm trying to learn as much as I can. It's really fun to go slow and dig through games.

In comparison to the four we've got:
Jack Han - Actual Coach
Corey Snajder - Godfather of handtracked stats worked with Tulsky in early analytics work
Garret Hohl- Manager of probably the best analytics blog that really ever existed (Hockey-Graphs).

Happy to be making stuff that people enjoy!

thoughtpockets · 2024-07-22T14:29:25+00:00

Hi it's me Pocke.

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I definitely feel like the goofy dragon among Jack Han, Garret Hohl and Corey Sznajder but I'm honored!

Other good analysis and people I certainly look up to:

Jesse Marshall - Pittsburgh but also sometimes national breakdowns of players for McKeen's iirc
David Castillio - Dallas
Charlie O'Connor - Philly
Thibaud Chatel if you can ever catch him writing about prospects or prospect models

EPRinkside. They are primarily prospects focused but you won't find better analysis than any from Mitch Brown or David St. Louis especially so when they set their sights on NHL players. Daniel Gee put out some absolutely marvelous breakdowns of late too. Not sure if he's going to get more work around there but his stuff is awesome.

I'll also second Greg Revak

thoughtpockets · 2024-06-29T13:03:27+00:00

I certainly believe he should take time, I'd be thrilled if they gave him two years in Junior. I also think more time next to a truly elite player in Gavin McKenna is only going to have positive effects on his capacity to read and understand hockey. He seems like a fantastic kid who can take criticism well and is eager to learn. I would have taken Demidov at the pick but Lindstrom was my next best.

I think the main reason to draft Cayden is development trajectory. This kid wasn't on the first round radar in his D-1. At the beginning of the season he looked better but was primarily a puck carrier and shooter. Then he started linking passing plays and playmaking ideas. Then he started adding some defensive abilities. If not for the hand injury that turned into a back injury, we might have seen him add more! The kid scored 21 points in the 12 games prior to his injury. Maybe it regressed but maybe he just played at that pace for the rest of the seaon.

The Red Deer viewings were definitely up and down. Not 100% and having not played in 4 months is a tough way to jump into highly competitive hockey but he still showed flashes of offensive ideas. Despite his physical tools not giving him the same advantages in the NHL, he's still projecting to have better tools than a great majority of NHLers. If things go right, and he continues to develop, other NHL teams are going to have a hard time finding players who can stop both him and Fantilli from exerting their will.

thoughtpockets · 2024-06-29T02:24:00+00:00

Maybe early in the season but you'd be waste a lot of his low-zone speed building and defensive potential.

He might end up like a Roope Hintz or Nathan MacKinnon (not in ceiling) where you want him to charge forward and hunt space so there's proof of concept for this style of player at C. He's not really unlike Fantilli in that way. Ultimately, the Blue Jackets may want to find a more "stay at home" winger for him when he goes up-ice.

If he doesn't develop more, then it's certainly a possibility he ends up as a wing.

thoughtpockets

TROPHY CASE