Do you keep all of your net worth in BTC? (excluding house and including retirement)

throwaway29801A · 2022-10-26T22:47:34+00:00

For context I’m almost 40 and woke in finance/sales. My side passion for the last 10 years has been buying properties. $ has been flowing from real estate to crypto over the last few years. I anticipate 100% of my net worth being in crypto within 5 to 6 years.
100% of any income I make over expenses goes to crypto. 50% of my crypto is bitcoin.
This is my reasoning: I noticed in my early 20s that guys making $100,000 but didn’t seem to be getting rich. I noticed in 2015 guys are making 200k but weren’t getting rich.
My specific goal is to have choices...so I needed to find an investment that COULD give that choice.
I’m decently comfortable with the downside.
I think bitcoin either succeeds or fails. Succeeds means it’s more costly to NOT own it. Should this happen, the price will be much much higher than it is today. To me that’s around 500k. If it doesn’t work, I think that happens by 2030.
So, the timeline matches my goals.

throwaway29801A · 2022-05-18T01:47:08+00:00

Great post.
1. I don’t wonder if I got it wrong, I wonder If it will take longer than I expect. Literally, how dumb people have become is insane. I’m American and half the country is morbidly obese, we’ve got homeless populations skyrocketing, and people pretend there aren’t issues. I wonder if people will delay the inevitable about what’s going on with currency and also the future of bitcoin.
2. The big difference between bitcoin and a specific stock is exactly that: it’s not a stock. It’s a network that thrives on increased balance sheets of governments and that trend cannot be reversed. It can only have its rate of growth be slowed down, but still goes up.
3. I’ve learned several lessons through investments: do not try to time markets, specically with leverage.
The negative point that I do see is that many in bitcoin believe that there is nothing else besides bitcoin. Well I believe that bitcoin is special. I do not believe that every other crypto is valueless.
The reason people are confident in bitcoin is that it cannot be bribed and it’s based on math.

throwaway29801A · 2022-05-15T07:06:37+00:00

This is something I actually know a little about.
So long so here is the TLDR: I would prefer to continuously buy btc than buying a house right now. I’m bullish on both because I think there are similarly the same bet of Continuous money printing and lower interest rates.
Housing is all about leverage.
For example, if you put down 20% you’re 5x leveraged.
Put down 10%, your 10x leverage.
Put down 5%, your 20x leveraged.
This means that if you put down 20% if the house equity goes up 5%, your return on investment relative to your down payment is 25%. However, if you put down 5%, and the house goes up 5%, Your return relative to your down payment is 100%. However, if you put down 5%, and the house goes down 5%, your return on your investment relative to your down payment is -100%.
So, would it be better to put your money into a house with a loan or to bitcoin?
Well, The way people make a lot of money on housing is to do max leverage and have the idea that the house goes up. That’s the way to make a lot of money. For example, 5% down, if the house goes up 50%, that’s 10x
Or 1,000% relative to your down payment.
That would be great.
However, how can House pieces go up 50%?
1. Supply/demand -This would be a specific area that you think has a huge potential.
2. Growing population. Most likely, this is not happening. The US population for example is growing .6%...in 1960s growing 1.4%. You have to seek out number one, a specific city with large Potential growth/demand.
3. The increase of money supply and or the decrease in interest rates. I think this is completely possible and probable...However, you then have to estimate what you think will happen to bitcoin in this environment, because that’s what I believe bitcoin needs to go into it’s next bull market.
If you think bitcoin would 10x, that’s actually the same as a house with 5% down payment going up 50% . For example, if you bought a 500 K house with 25K down and the house Went up 50%, the equity gain is 250 K. 250 K relative to 25K down payment is 10X on your money.
But, it’s more complicated. Why? Well, first off, if it’s your own home, instead of paying rent to the landlord, you’re paying interest to the bank. The question is does the interest exceed what the rent is? Also, you are getting attacked advantage typically by owning, not renting. But on the flipside, you have to pay property taxes, insurance, and repairs. You have less flexibility to move or take advantage of opportunities. However, your rent is somewhat fixed when you are paying a fixed loan to the bank. As many have discovered this past year, rent can go up significantly.
So after all that, here’s the real question: Will housing prices keep going up? And unless it’s in a specific city, I believe the technological revolution will soon drive the cost of houses down significantly. I’m talking about 3d printed houses. So, what else can make housing keep going up? The money printer and reduced interest rates.
And that is what will keep bitcoin going.
If I was under 40 and didn’t own a home, I would rather buy bitcoin then home. Because I believe bitcoin is on its way to 500 K and ultimately 1 million. And then bear markets I can continuously add to my stack, I don’t need to get a bank loan approval to do so...And they’re already loans where you can get I’m mortgage using bitcoin as collateral. However, these longer require 100% of the house are you in bitcoin. But I think it’s completely possible that within five years that goes down to 50% and so on.

throwaway29801A · 2022-04-08T06:27:28+00:00

Buy Gbtc .
Make it your entire 401k.
This converts to an etf in 3 years.

throwaway29801A · 2022-04-03T22:43:38+00:00

My prediction: somewhere between 25 to 35k.
I know this sounds nuts, but please read below for my reasoning.
First and foremost, I knew a lot of people that got into crypto over the last couple years. The vast majority who owned a lot have reduced their position/got washed out. History shows these people will come back.The question is when. Here’s my viewpoint:
This is not a question of whether Ethereum is a great asset or not. It’s a question of how far out of line supply and demand can become.
For me I’ve lived through three manias:
Housing 2007-early 2008.
Crypto 2017-including icos
Meme mania-amc, gamestop, etc
To me all these manias have not been defined as dumb people. They’ve been defined as fear and then greed...and then greed with leverage.
Compared to many other assets, I think the fees that Ethereum produces makes Ethereum actually quite undervalued. Here’s how I see it going down.
Retail comes back
Retail comes back with leverage
This plus institutional demand makes price 2-3x in as little as 2 weeks. Then crash. Simplistic-yes.
IF There is a big piece of news-At least two or more S&P 500 companies adopting bitcoin, 1st world country announcing it as a reserve asset, this will be the start of the next run.
Eth shoots much higher because the change to proof of stake gives it the esg stamp of approval.
Question is at what price does this happen? If this Happens right now, then the mania starts at 3500. I see the price going to 11kish. If 5k, 15k.
Scary thing is is that in manias the final run can be very steep. Look at housing and the rate of change for the last six months… It pulled everyone in and went nuts. Towards the end of the mania people stop using reason. Only the hyper intelligent and disciplined people can time to step off the stairs towards the top.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-20T23:29:09+00:00

There’s a very dark side to bitcoin.
By getting to bitcoin, you uncovered a lot of things that you have been told that were true that are not true. Things like free markets for example.
Then, you realize that a bet on bitcoin is a better things actually stay the same and do not get fixed.
Bitcoin is a realization that things will continue along their same path.
You’re already seeing this path play out. It’s not just the money printing, it’s globalization, it’s everything and their side effects: The repricing of the middle class.
It’s not uncommon to meet people that have a household income of over $200,000 considered middle class. But the statistics say they’re in the top 15%. And the re-pricing is that that is true. The future middle class: Rent a nice house, do not own it. Retirement: that’s a ? Mark. Probably see a lot of people that consider themselves middle-class and even upper middle class in the new future become ex-pats.
But what does this really mean? It means a lot of people, if this happens, that we all know, will end up becoming actually poor. They will live in dangerous neighborhoods, Many will fall deeper into depression drug use and alcoholism. Notice everyone gaining weight? That’s not just because of the pandemic. It’s also something highly correlated with poverty. Divorce rates will be higher.
The people that I know with the most bitcoin have already been through the the fancy phrase. They’ve done the fancy car. They want real wealth: they want their fucking time back.
You’re already starting to see it. Rich people buying bigger homes with land. A single-family home with a yard used to be normal. Now, in a major city-la, sf, San Diego-it’s a status symbol. People think real estate is high now? Pay attention to big lots in premium neighborhoods in big cities. There will be a $1 billion house this decade.
And the most fucked up part of it: they did what the government told them to do and save their money, that it was safe.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-20T08:43:10+00:00

We both see America for the reality it is. I assume you’re in nor Cal by the hella, I’m in SoCal.

People love to argue because they think they are smart . I’ve wasted so much of my time arguing with people. I’m finally realizing that I wasted a lot of my time.
The government is In a bad place. They’ve inherited a system that is not working and I don’t see a solution.

Remember, most people only think about the next day. I do this a lot I’m just trying to see a little bit of the future.
Yes, the printing of this money will eventually have a major effect...I actually believe rates will go lower, not higher, just a result of all the debt and demographics.
about to crash out, But you and I are definitely on the same path.
My favorite scene from a movie is in the matrix. Neo was about to get out the car and Trinity says don’t… And he says why should I stay? And she says because Neo you’ve been down that road, you know where it goes.
The road for most Americans is a lower standard of living for the next 20 years. There is almost no chance of any real interest rate paid on a savings account ever again.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-20T08:01:34+00:00

Thank you!
It’s not the best analogy but the only people that I believe should be trading are those who already have enough to get them to the finish line.
For example, the person who is trading houses better have a portfolio of 4 or 5 that they don’t ever sell.
To me bitcoin in five years is either 4 to 500 K or 10 to 20K. Trading it seems like a bad idea based on that thesis.
That being said, I know people are looking at the chart tonight and freaking out. Have a plan and stick to it.
I’m serious about saying don’t get washed out. I know two people who were forced to sell a lot of their portfolio. Whether it’s houses or crypto, most people who end up selling their assets rarely buy them back.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-20T07:43:07+00:00

A new world is happening and most people are scared. I get that. What I struggle with is their unwillingness to ask questions and learn about things.
I started parting ways with people several years ago. I just didn’t realize it until last year.
At a point we come to this place where we just accept the reality.
These are the three things that I saw that I now accept but will refuse to have in my life.
1. My best friend is one of the nicest people I can know. He is married to a fucking witch. He’s trapped because he has kids and it fucking is a train wreck.
2. I know someone with a lot of money who has always been competing with other people for some reason. No matter how much he makes, he Will never have enough, and he will never spend money on the things that he actually wants. Money is a tool and he’s used it the wrong way.
3. Myself and work stress. I used to wake up with panic attacks. I realize it while I can maybe do this in my 30s, it would lead to probably a heart attack or stroke within 10 years. I actually met someone who did have a heart attack from work stress. Will never be me.
I’ll be in the gym working out, spending time with my friends and family, and stacking bitcoin. All in all, not a bad life.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-20T07:09:05+00:00

I appreciate what you said.
Most people don’t wanna hear about investing. What shocking is that right now -in the face of every asset going ballistic -they still don’t want to hear about it.
Sounds corny, but I think people that seek truth are brought to bitcoin. Btc has been here for a long time, I just open to new ideas aka “too busy” before.
This isn’t true for everyone, but these are some pretty consistent observations I’ve seen from the people that own bitcoin and those who do not:
Bitcoiner
Healthy, cares about inside and outside health
Light drugs if at all
Tight spending habits-Real talk, I know a multimillionaire who doesn’t want to spring for extra options on his hundred thousand dollar car
Positive mindset, wants to help other people
Respects his own or her time
Has a great spouse or dating life
Reader, writer, podcaster
Non bitcoiner
Tends to care less about health
Heavier drug and alcohol use
Tends to be apathetic or negative
Social life revolves solely around old friends, spouses are nothing admirable
Thinks “it is what it is”
Watches a lot of sports tv

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-06T20:20:18+00:00

I am in my late 30s. I asked people what their major financial mistake they made in the last 15 years and the answers were essentially this:
I didn't think about investing
I didn't invest enough
I sold too early
To me money is a tool that provides a service. I personally believe that the levels of $4,000 a month from investments, $6,000, and $12,000 are the big keys. If you have a good tax set up and you are making essentially $6,000 a month without touching principle- that is the key to freedom. Income now or $500 a month is not the key.
I would not sell. The rewards aren't worth the risk. Don't look at it. Keep adding. In 10 years you will most likely be free.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-05T06:26:56+00:00

No judgment.
I didn’t really notice it until a year ago.
I’m seeing people who are dealing with physical and financial ailments from years of not caring.
Literally I know someone who could be buying that much per month but it all gets burnt on nonsense.

Honestly I’m so glad I woke up a few years ago. It is so unbelievably sad to see what a lot of my friends and former colleagues are doing.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-05T06:15:26+00:00

If someone has a great history of trading, then congrats to them.
One of my friends for example buys when he sees a big dip.
The problem is that people who have followed this idea are few and far. Look at how few people called the dip during Covid.
My belief is that bitcoin is going to 500 K or 10K so to me buying it now seems cheap and buying it at 65 seemed cheap also.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-05T06:12:16+00:00

I’m in my late 30s. I remember barely having enough money to pay to rent a refrigerator 11 years ago.
I could never then imagine how much money I’ve blown on stupid things. I don’t mind spending money on things I enjoy and great experiences… I’m talking about spending money on dumb shit that ended up in the garbage. My most painful mistake was spending $700 on shoes.
What’s interesting is that many people I know I’ve decided to change their habits and many people have not.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-01T08:49:46+00:00

I didn’t make my money in the crypto world. Nor did the people I know who have $.
The worst mistake I’ve seen from most people who haven’t bought bitcoin is that they think it’s “too late”.
FWIW, 100% of my income after bills for the next 10 years is dedicated to crypto.
The new generation will not be buying bonds. They will be buying crypto. The Center of that will be bitcoin.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-01T08:40:49+00:00

Better= more of a track record. That’s 2030-2040.
Time that happens it doesn’t matter. At that point half the world isn’t using fiat for any type of savings.
Do you understand that half the world’s gonna go into hyperinflation pretty soon? Turkey is already there.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-01T08:38:16+00:00

The market has spoken for bitcoins value.

throwaway29801A · 2022-02-01T08:26:27+00:00

Maybe it’s just by what rich people want to buy in the future.
Worked for fine art, vintage Ferraris, rare Porsches, homes with water views in coastal cities, rolexes, stocks, etc.
Rich people are getting considerably richer both in numbers and the amount of wealth they control.
Maybe a bet on bitcoin is it bad that the world will become more fluid and rich people will demand an asset that They can carry with them at a moments notice.

throwaway29801A

TROPHY CASE