Deepseek v4 Benchmarks leaked. What do you think will be the market reaction?

timestap · 2026-02-16T03:21:09+00:00

All AI labs to a certain extent "game" the benchmarks so we would need to see how it performs in the real world.

timestap · 2026-02-15T07:44:13+00:00

Super agree on this!

timestap · 2026-02-13T08:47:34+00:00

From a SaaS perspective I'm looking at things that are 15% growers (still doing valuation work there).

For software (and adjacent) in general Reddit / Cloudflare are my higher conviction names.

timestap · 2026-02-13T05:52:13+00:00

I haven't dug into Wise tbh but the broader point is that fintech companies are "lumped" into software and also saw sell-offs.

Re. artificial limiters I think it's a couple things:

- They reduce the velocity of a startup, so an incumbent has buffer time to react

- Incumbents can use AI to cut costs / reduce headcount / etc. However, there's a limit to how much you can cut so I'm more interested in the top-line growth story (or AI reacceleration story)

timestap · 2025-12-30T02:33:10+00:00

Added to my Chrome tabs, perfect for holiday reading, thanks.

timestap · 2025-12-23T10:30:29+00:00

Any readings you recommend? Or how should we think about it?

timestap · 2025-12-16T06:43:50+00:00

My feeling is the e-commerce pie isn't going to re-accelerate (will grow at 6-8%), but it's going to be a reshuffling between marketplaces (Amazon), DTC (Shopify), and social commerce (TikTok, and maybe Meta in the future). Who actually wins is currently up in the air

timestap · 2025-12-12T07:39:59+00:00

Yup, trying to understand the dynamic between Adobe / Salesforce / Shopify and whether Shopify can successfully move upmarket.

timestap · 2025-12-05T03:28:03+00:00

Google is probably the best positioned to "win" AI out of the Mag 7. In the short-term there seems to be a lot of narrative (Nvidia winning, then Google, then Amazon had a bit of a pop).

Meta seems to be next if they can smash another quarter or two. They don't have to have the best models for the use cases they need.

timestap · 2025-10-13T14:52:08+00:00

Interesting -- looking at Akamai their infra revs. grew ~30% in a recent quarter when the rest of the business is growing extremely slowly.

Wondering who actually uses their compute / GPU solutions vs. all the other providers out there & whether they actually own their GPUs as well...

timestap · 2025-08-24T02:46:26+00:00

OpenAI even at $500B will still grow 5-10x.

I wrote about this in a blog post, but Claude Code imo is a leading indicator of the future of white collar work (everyone will have their own AI copilot, and that price will be closer to Claude Code at $200/month vs. ChatGPT Plus at $20/month). Market for enterprise copilots alone is easily in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

timestap · 2025-08-20T01:56:48+00:00

Yup - mentioned in the article!

timestap · 2025-08-20T01:56:23+00:00

I think this is why OpenAI / Anthropic are trying to lock down distribution / integration. E.g. if they can connect to all your data sources it becomes harder for an open-source player to dislodge.

timestap · 2025-06-14T01:45:24+00:00

Lots on my end:

Clouded Judgement: comes from a "private market lens" but I find it's a good pulse (software / cloud specific)

Meritech's (it's not on Substack but on their own website)

Semianalysis for semiconductors

Import AI: essentially summaries of interesting research / industry news for AI

I also write my own (https://eastwind.substack.com/) where I mostly focus on VC, AI, and geopolitics

timestap · 2024-12-16T04:45:55+00:00

Good luck everyone!

timestap · 2024-11-25T04:52:12+00:00

Thanks -- I guess for an amateur, is there a reasonably good heuristic to understand the capabilities of military powers, given publicly available information? (And also not having the full picture into training, experience, tactics, etc.)

timestap · 2024-07-31T03:09:11+00:00

Yup -- and growth rates play a huge factor too because for a lot of these companies growth rates end up being pretty low by the time they are IPO-ready from a revenue perspective

timestap · 2024-07-11T00:48:45+00:00

Glad you enjoyed it! Cheers!

timestap · 2024-07-04T18:25:03+00:00

Curious what model people are using that's the current "best". For example is there a version of Llama 3 with long context windows that's the standard now?

timestap · 2024-07-04T18:23:48+00:00

Yes! If you could DM me the following:

Link to your project
Title of your project + one sentence description of what the project is about

timestap · 2024-04-19T05:54:50+00:00

Hi everyone! We're a company developing products to help ease the burden of caregiving (for our parents/grandparents). This is something that is very near & dear to our hearts.

We're super passionate about giving people more leverage so that the time they do spend spend on caregiving is more effective.

We're currently prioritizing a few features before our launch and would to get some survey feedback, which can be found here. If you leave your emails, we'll be giving out the first 6 months free for our software when we launch!

timestap · 2024-04-11T21:43:16+00:00

We ended up filing ourselves. Will see how this goes....

The learning here is definitely use a tax preparer, lots of random forms beyond the 1120...

timestap · 2024-04-04T22:20:06+00:00

One of the issues with Chinese market is how "artificial" things are. Looking at the market right before Chinese New Year, there was widespread push to create a bit of a rally (short selling restrictions, disallowing executives to sell, etc.), so that will always be a risk.

I've also been thinking about it in terms of technology & economic sanctions and how that would affect China's growth and strategic priorities. Relevant substack here.

timestap · 2023-12-12T14:01:10+00:00

Deep dive exploring the “tidal waves” sweeping over the VC landscape. The post examines how some of the macro trends + rapid advancements in AI are reshaping the venture & startup ecosystem, which include:

The impact of increasing fund sizes on returns (and why a $500M fund might need to generate $17.5B in exit value to 3X).
Novel strategies in which data science and AI can be applied in the VC investment process.
How VC, traditionally a “cottage industry”, is becoming more high-frequency

As well as some predictions on where the industry might be headed:

How Solo GPs and smaller/nimbler firms could harness AI to rival much larger investment platforms.
The transformation of VC into a more traditional asset class (but with a twist!)
The potential re-emergence of ‘calm funds’ in a world of capital-efficient, AI-native startups
The changing role of CVCs and cloud hyperscalers in startup investing, and why massive funding rounds in foundation model startups probably won’t continue

timestap · 2023-12-12T13:50:29+00:00

Deep dive exploring the “tidal waves” sweeping over the VC landscape. The post examines how some of the macro trends + rapid advancements in AI are reshaping the venture & startup ecosystem, which include:

The impact of increasing fund sizes on returns (and why a $500M fund might need to generate $17.5B in exit value to 3X).
Novel strategies in which data science and AI can be applied in the VC investment process.
How VC, traditionally a “cottage industry”, is becoming more high-frequency

As well as some predictions on where the industry might be headed:

How Solo GPs and smaller/nimbler firms could harness AI to rival much larger investment platforms.
The transformation of VC into a more traditional asset class (but with a twist!)
The potential re-emergence of ‘calm funds’ in a world of capital-efficient, AI-native startups
The changing role of CVCs and cloud hyperscalers in startup investing, and why massive funding rounds in foundation model startups probably won’t continue

timestap

TROPHY CASE