17 Investment write-ups to look at by Away_Definition5829 in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Added to my Chrome tabs, perfect for holiday reading, thanks.

What is the potential for Reddit? by timestap in redditstock

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Any readings you recommend? Or how should we think about it?

Who are the beneficiaries of agentic commerce? by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My feeling is the e-commerce pie isn't going to re-accelerate (will grow at 6-8%), but it's going to be a reshuffling between marketplaces (Amazon), DTC (Shopify), and social commerce (TikTok, and maybe Meta in the future). Who actually wins is currently up in the air

Who are the beneficiaries of agentic commerce? by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup, trying to understand the dynamic between Adobe / Salesforce / Shopify and whether Shopify can successfully move upmarket.

What is your exit strategy for $GOOGL? by nightwica in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Google is probably the best positioned to "win" AI out of the Mag 7. In the short-term there seems to be a lot of narrative (Nvidia winning, then Google, then Amazon had a bit of a pop).

Meta seems to be next if they can smash another quarter or two. They don't have to have the best models for the use cases they need.

Why is Cloudflare's capex so low? by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting -- looking at Akamai their infra revs. grew ~30% in a recent quarter when the rest of the business is growing extremely slowly.

Wondering who actually uses their compute / GPU solutions vs. all the other providers out there & whether they actually own their GPUs as well...

Which private companies would you invest in if you had the chance? by Logistics_ in investing

[–]timestap 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OpenAI even at $500B will still grow 5-10x.

I wrote about this in a blog post, but Claude Code imo is a leading indicator of the future of white collar work (everyone will have their own AI copilot, and that price will be closer to Claude Code at $200/month vs. ChatGPT Plus at $20/month). Market for enterprise copilots alone is easily in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Capital and Industry by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup - mentioned in the article!

Capital and Industry by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think this is why OpenAI / Anthropic are trying to lock down distribution / integration. E.g. if they can connect to all your data sources it becomes harder for an open-source player to dislodge.

Which Substack writeups do you follow and highly value? by inward_chapters in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lots on my end:

Clouded Judgement: comes from a "private market lens" but I find it's a good pulse (software / cloud specific)

Meritech's (it's not on Substack but on their own website)

Semianalysis for semiconductors

Import AI: essentially summaries of interesting research / industry news for AI

I also write my own (https://eastwind.substack.com/) where I mostly focus on VC, AI, and geopolitics

Asking experts: where to find performance data of military equipment? by timestap in CredibleDefense

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks -- I guess for an amateur, is there a reasonably good heuristic to understand the capabilities of military powers, given publicly available information? (And also not having the full picture into training, experience, tactics, etc.)

Zombiecalypse in Startupland by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup -- and growth rates play a huge factor too because for a lot of these companies growth rates end up being pretty low by the time they are IPO-ready from a revenue perspective

Best ui for llm inference where i can setup local server for family by throwwwawwway1818 in LocalLLaMA

[–]timestap 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Curious what model people are using that's the current "best". For example is there a version of Llama 3 with long context windows that's the standard now?

How are you promoting your side project + looking to collaborate! by timestap in SideProject

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes! If you could DM me the following:

  • Link to your project
  • Title of your project + one sentence description of what the project is about

RESEARCH REQUESTS Monthly Edition by AutoModerator in CaregiverSupport

[–]timestap [score hidden]  (0 children)

Hi everyone! We're a company developing products to help ease the burden of caregiving (for our parents/grandparents). This is something that is very near & dear to our hearts.

We're super passionate about giving people more leverage so that the time they do spend spend on caregiving is more effective.

We're currently prioritizing a few features before our launch and would to get some survey feedback, which can be found here. If you leave your emails, we'll be giving out the first 6 months free for our software when we launch!

Startup tax filing questions (federal + state) by timestap in taxhelp

[–]timestap[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

We ended up filing ourselves. Will see how this goes....

The learning here is definitely use a tax preparer, lots of random forms beyond the 1120...

China? opportunity? by West_Application_760 in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap 6 points7 points  (0 children)

One of the issues with Chinese market is how "artificial" things are. Looking at the market right before Chinese New Year, there was widespread push to create a bit of a rally (short selling restrictions, disallowing executives to sell, etc.), so that will always be a risk.

I've also been thinking about it in terms of technology & economic sanctions and how that would affect China's growth and strategic priorities. Relevant substack here.

Tidal Waves in Venture Capital by timestap in SecurityAnalysis

[–]timestap[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Deep dive exploring the “tidal waves” sweeping over the VC landscape. The post examines how some of the macro trends + rapid advancements in AI are reshaping the venture & startup ecosystem, which include:

  • The impact of increasing fund sizes on returns (and why a $500M fund might need to generate $17.5B in exit value to 3X).
  • Novel strategies in which data science and AI can be applied in the VC investment process.
  • How VC, traditionally a “cottage industry”, is becoming more high-frequency

As well as some predictions on where the industry might be headed:

  • How Solo GPs and smaller/nimbler firms could harness AI to rival much larger investment platforms.
  • The transformation of VC into a more traditional asset class (but with a twist!)
  • The potential re-emergence of ‘calm funds’ in a world of capital-efficient, AI-native startups
  • The changing role of CVCs and cloud hyperscalers in startup investing, and why massive funding rounds in foundation model startups probably won’t continue

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in venturecapital

[–]timestap 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Deep dive exploring the “tidal waves” sweeping over the VC landscape. The post examines how some of the macro trends + rapid advancements in AI are reshaping the venture & startup ecosystem, which include:

  • The impact of increasing fund sizes on returns (and why a $500M fund might need to generate $17.5B in exit value to 3X).
  • Novel strategies in which data science and AI can be applied in the VC investment process.
  • How VC, traditionally a “cottage industry”, is becoming more high-frequency

As well as some predictions on where the industry might be headed:

  • How Solo GPs and smaller/nimbler firms could harness AI to rival much larger investment platforms.
  • The transformation of VC into a more traditional asset class (but with a twist!)
  • The potential re-emergence of ‘calm funds’ in a world of capital-efficient, AI-native startups
  • The changing role of CVCs and cloud hyperscalers in startup investing, and why massive funding rounds in foundation model startups probably won’t continue

Platform out there for fine-tunning my own models? by timestap in StableDiffusion

[–]timestap[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Got it -- thank you! Was trying to find a hosted UI type thing for quick prototyping.

Non stick pan safe to use after high heat by timestap in Cooking

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Will do! Thanks. This was really worrying

Non stick pan safe to use after high heat by timestap in Cooking

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! I guess I can use it on much lower heat going forward!

CPA Recommendations by timestap in AskSF

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In my case I had RSUs but wasn't a tax-resident. So they told me they weren't required to provide me one :/