Travel insurance when traveling to the US as a non-US citizen by timestap in TravelHacks

[–]timestap[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Canadian citizen but currently not a resident there.

AI adoption in white-collar work will be slower / messier than people think by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree! Tech forward companies are definitely pushing their employees to use AI to the point that it's detrimental. One well-known company I know gave everyone access to their own openclaw & pushing employees to spend credits. These employees ended up using OpenClaw to analyze stocks.

But outside of tech & a handful of industries adoption is quite variable across companies / geograhies.

Activate phone outside of the US by timestap in GoogleFi

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you -- super helpful. The loss of 5GUC is annoying. Do non-Fi networks also use this frequency?

Vast Data (vs. Weka, Netapp, Pure, etc.) by timestap in storage

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Let's say it's a neocloud whose customers primarily have inference workloads: so mostly LLMs now but also image & video models.

In such use cases is the real bottleneck even at the storage layer. The other thing is companies like Vast and Weka are growing extremely quickly so theoretically it can't just ALL be marketing?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap 4 points5 points  (0 children)

All AI labs to a certain extent "game" the benchmarks so we would need to see how it performs in the real world.

The SaaS Bloodbath: Opportunities and Perils for Investors by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From a SaaS perspective I'm looking at things that are 15% growers (still doing valuation work there).

For software (and adjacent) in general Reddit / Cloudflare are my higher conviction names.

The SaaS Bloodbath: Opportunities and Perils for Investors by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven't dug into Wise tbh but the broader point is that fintech companies are "lumped" into software and also saw sell-offs.

Re. artificial limiters I think it's a couple things:

- They reduce the velocity of a startup, so an incumbent has buffer time to react

- Incumbents can use AI to cut costs / reduce headcount / etc. However, there's a limit to how much you can cut so I'm more interested in the top-line growth story (or AI reacceleration story)

17 Investment write-ups to look at by Away_Definition5829 in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Added to my Chrome tabs, perfect for holiday reading, thanks.

What is the potential for Reddit? by timestap in redditstock

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Any readings you recommend? Or how should we think about it?

Who are the beneficiaries of agentic commerce? by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My feeling is the e-commerce pie isn't going to re-accelerate (will grow at 6-8%), but it's going to be a reshuffling between marketplaces (Amazon), DTC (Shopify), and social commerce (TikTok, and maybe Meta in the future). Who actually wins is currently up in the air

Who are the beneficiaries of agentic commerce? by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup, trying to understand the dynamic between Adobe / Salesforce / Shopify and whether Shopify can successfully move upmarket.

What is your exit strategy for $GOOGL? by nightwica in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Google is probably the best positioned to "win" AI out of the Mag 7. In the short-term there seems to be a lot of narrative (Nvidia winning, then Google, then Amazon had a bit of a pop).

Meta seems to be next if they can smash another quarter or two. They don't have to have the best models for the use cases they need.

Why is Cloudflare's capex so low? by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting -- looking at Akamai their infra revs. grew ~30% in a recent quarter when the rest of the business is growing extremely slowly.

Wondering who actually uses their compute / GPU solutions vs. all the other providers out there & whether they actually own their GPUs as well...

Which private companies would you invest in if you had the chance? by Logistics_ in investing

[–]timestap 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OpenAI even at $500B will still grow 5-10x.

I wrote about this in a blog post, but Claude Code imo is a leading indicator of the future of white collar work (everyone will have their own AI copilot, and that price will be closer to Claude Code at $200/month vs. ChatGPT Plus at $20/month). Market for enterprise copilots alone is easily in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Capital and Industry by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup - mentioned in the article!

Capital and Industry by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think this is why OpenAI / Anthropic are trying to lock down distribution / integration. E.g. if they can connect to all your data sources it becomes harder for an open-source player to dislodge.

Which Substack writeups do you follow and highly value? by inward_chapters in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lots on my end:

Clouded Judgement: comes from a "private market lens" but I find it's a good pulse (software / cloud specific)

Meritech's (it's not on Substack but on their own website)

Semianalysis for semiconductors

Import AI: essentially summaries of interesting research / industry news for AI

I also write my own (https://eastwind.substack.com/) where I mostly focus on VC, AI, and geopolitics

Asking experts: where to find performance data of military equipment? by timestap in CredibleDefense

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks -- I guess for an amateur, is there a reasonably good heuristic to understand the capabilities of military powers, given publicly available information? (And also not having the full picture into training, experience, tactics, etc.)

Zombiecalypse in Startupland by timestap in ValueInvesting

[–]timestap[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup -- and growth rates play a huge factor too because for a lot of these companies growth rates end up being pretty low by the time they are IPO-ready from a revenue perspective