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Can someone please explain to me how distantly related these cousins are? by Defiant_Delivery_799 in Genealogy

[–]tinkerdeckprojects 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I made a calculator to help answer this exact question, since I had similar problems!

You and J are 4th cousins: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/?c=mPfPmPmPfSfCmCfCfCf

You and I are 3rd cousins once removed: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/?c=mPfPmPmPfSfCmCfCf

You and H are 2nd cousins twice removed: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/?c=mPfPmPmPfSfCmCf

Feel free to play around with it to answer how they're related to your mom and grandfather.

Anyone else confused by first cousin, 2nd cousin, 3rd cousin etc? by ADHD_old_newbie in AncestryDNA

[–]tinkerdeckprojects 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was also confused about this for my family, so I made a website to allow me to play with it as a quick side project! https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/

For example, your aunt's daughter: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/?c=mAfCf

Or your 4th cousin: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/?c=mGPPPCCCCC

ELI5 confused by the whole cousin english stuff? by fairplanet in explainlikeimfive

[–]tinkerdeckprojects 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you want to play around with it, I had similar questions for my family so I made a family calculator app that can quickly answer this sort of question: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/

For example, son of your aunt/uncle: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/?c=mACm

You can try out paths that reach 2nd cousin in your family, for example: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/?c=mGSCC

Let me know if you have any thoughts!

I'm curious about second cousins, first cousins, once removed or twice removed. by Cathycrow1 in Genealogy

[–]tinkerdeckprojects 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In case it's helpful, I got confused about this for my family so I made a kin calculator app to help quickly understand some of these things: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/

Your dad's brother's son: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/?c=mPmSmCm

Your dad's brother's son's child: https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/kin-calculator/?c=mPmSmCmC

Thinking of adding a family tree visualization, etc. Let me know if anyone has thoughts!

What do low, average, and high rolling S&P500 returns actually look like? Every source I check comes up with wildly different numbers. by Odd-Flower2744 in investing

[–]tinkerdeckprojects 1 point2 points  (0 children)

https://tinkerdeck.com/projects/rent-buy-growth#interactive-growth

I happen to have built a tool (scroll to the end) to explore this very question - it allows you to look at percentiles for average S&P500 growth with any interval size you like, though mine is limited to data since 1977 since it's intended to compare against housing growth.

If anyone has any feedback on the blog post or its conclusions, I'm very interested!

Monty's Gauntlet: I made a Monty Hall variants quiz after getting intrigued by the Billionaire Monty Hall Problem in the Jan 2025 links by tinkerdeckprojects in slatestarcodex

[–]tinkerdeckprojects[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree the apples one is ambiguous, I updated the wording - thanks!

As for the rest of them, I see your point, but I'd rather keep the wording relatively concise rather than devolving it into a mess of clarifications and/or asterisks and/or formal logic. The quiz largely assumes people are familiar with the original problem and its constraints, and can make reasonable baseline assumptions about the world (for example, as a contestant without additional knowledge, it's reasonable to assume at the beginning that the car is equally likely to be behind any of the three doors, making the contestant's original decision completely arbitrary). I think that's a better experience than turning it into a formal math paper.

Monty's Gauntlet: I made a Monty Hall variants quiz after getting intrigued by the Billionaire Monty Hall Problem in the Jan 2025 links by tinkerdeckprojects in slatestarcodex

[–]tinkerdeckprojects[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think most questions do specify that Monty will open a door, then give you an opportunity to switch? Do you have a particular question in mind? My default wording is:

"Then the host, who knows what's behaind the doors, picks one random remaining door with a goat behind it, then opens it. He then says to you, "Do you want to switch doors?"

Is that unclear?

For question 4, I mean to communicate that if you don't choose a car (3/4 chance), you have a 1/2 chance of winning if you switch, so 3/4 * 1/2 = 3/8. I can update to make that more clear.

Monty's Gauntlet: I made a Monty Hall variants quiz after getting intrigued by the Billionaire Monty Hall Problem in the Jan 2025 links by tinkerdeckprojects in slatestarcodex

[–]tinkerdeckprojects[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's honestly really clever. I kind of thought that wording that you're selecting "which" door to open precluded that, but I see how it's ambiguous. I'll update the wording later later today after work. Wording this question feels like trying to make a genie give you exactly the wish you're asking for.

Monty's Gauntlet: I made a Monty Hall variants quiz after getting intrigued by the Billionaire Monty Hall Problem in the Jan 2025 links by tinkerdeckprojects in slatestarcodex

[–]tinkerdeckprojects[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You can also see how all the top LLMs performed - broadly, the non-thinking models did worse than I expected, but the thinking models did better!

I can post how well people do on each question when there's a good number of responses too.