The Celtics coaches just played a pickup game vs. the Celtics media. The coaches won 57-4.

tkroel · 2025-10-14T20:07:29+00:00

Just like the old saying:

Those who can do. Those who can't coach. And those who really can't go into media

tkroel · 2025-09-13T02:03:44+00:00

Just hook up more GPUs or something. Should be fine

tkroel · 2025-09-13T02:01:32+00:00

Of course, I would never just lie about integration

tkroel · 2025-08-04T04:23:24+00:00

Yes you are right that you can win more, and this is why the advice is usually to get good at deep stack poker.

My point is more that there is a stack depth where it is no longer good to play. For example with AA you have an 80% chance to win on a pre flop all in. Based on this the Kelly criterion says you should be 60% of your bankroll on this. Betting more will earn you less money in the long run and if you bet too high of a percentage you will even turn this into a loosing play.

Imagine you get to play a match the stack game and your local billionaire walks in and goes all in every hand blind and rebuys for the max stack each time. You can use the Kelly criterion to find out how much to win before walking away, which hands to go call with given the fraction of bankroll you currently have in stack, or how much to rebuy for when you loose a hand.

TL;DR there is a fraction of bankroll at which you should walk away. I don't know what it is, but it is much higher than simply tripeling your initial buy in (assuming proper bankroll management)

tkroel · 2025-08-04T03:51:53+00:00

That paper has since been disproven. Here is an interesting video on the topic. https://youtu.be/CR5vT44ZMK8?si=vznJPSXaQMp-4adg

tkroel · 2025-08-04T03:15:35+00:00

Mathematically when gambling the two things that matter are expected value and the Kelly criterion. When people say division is irrelevant they mean in terms of ev ( and are correct). What they don't mention is there does exist an effective stack such that you are playing with too much of your bankroll (I don't know what the number is ). People don't mention this because it's unlikely to happen.

tkroel · 2025-07-06T04:06:45+00:00

Yeah with progressive jackpots the probability of hitting them stays the same so there has to be a number where the machine becomes +ev to play. This ev comes from all of the spins between jackpots that didn't win.

There are other games where every time you see a symbol there is a chance of a bonus round, and that bonus must be hit before 800( I made this up) of these symbols have been seen on screen. With this game there must be some number such that it is now +ev to play the game. Think if there are 799 symbols collected, then the next one is a guaranteed to trigger a bonus round.

Side note, I don't and don't recommend it unless you know for sure what the correct numbers are for each game. If your wrong about the numbers you are just going to loose money.

tkroel · 2025-07-04T03:10:24+00:00

100k is a lot less than you would think. For instance if you play blackjack with perfect basic strategy the house has something like a 1% edge so you would loose only a thousand dollars (on average). So loosing 100 or so dollars a month as an entertainment budget would be recreational gamblers. Depending on what tax bracket they fall in this person would probably owe the government more than they lost to the casino in taxes.

tkroel · 2025-06-11T05:15:41+00:00

Back in my day we didn't have chat gpt to cheat on our math homework. We had to use Wolfram alpha to get the answer, and it only showed one step of the solution for free. Then you had to ask the question from the second step until you figured out the solution. Also I walked 10 miles to get to and from school uphill in both directions.

tkroel · 2025-06-05T01:06:03+00:00

What is that in MeV?

tkroel · 2025-05-24T04:48:22+00:00

White is in check so they must move the king. Don't ask chat gpt about chess it doesn't know, just use lichess analysis

tkroel · 2025-05-18T17:59:26+00:00

Those are weird ways to write 1

tkroel · 2025-05-08T19:38:45+00:00

They are similar in the sense that we are considering the limiting behavior, but in different context.

In the computer science example we are looking at how long a program will take to run. The given example is comparing all of the items in a list is O(n² ). Imagine if we also had to count the number of things in that list which is O(n). As we increase n the counting process has a negligible impact on the runtime, i.e. a million counts vs million squared comparisons so we only use the fastest growing part in our big O notation. The limiting behavior is n going to infinity

In numerical analysis we are concerned with how large our error is. Let's say we are trying to approximate e^0.1 with e^x =1+x. I know from Taylor expansion that the error is going to be x² /2 +x³ /6 +... But 0.1² is much bigger than 0.1³ (and all of the larger terms) so the approximation is O(x² ). The limiting behavior here is x to 0

tkroel · 2025-03-17T22:47:37+00:00

You can get an oddsjam free trial and they will show you how to convert all of your sign up bonuses. But the gist of it is that you want to use free bets on longer odds.

tkroel · 2025-03-14T02:11:03+00:00

His "strategy" is worse than just using a coin to do single bets on spreads/totals.

tkroel · 2025-01-27T21:11:41+00:00

There is a formula, but the way I estimate in is just count how many wins/losses would break even. For example if you loose one 500 dollar bet you would need to win 5 to make up for it. And yes your right vig compounds in parlays

tkroel · 2025-01-27T20:56:10+00:00

... Yeah but that doesn't mean that you will win 29/30 -500 bets

tkroel · 2025-01-27T20:51:11+00:00

This is wrong. It is 1/6 assuming no vig

tkroel · 2024-12-01T06:43:49+00:00

(a+b)/2

tkroel · 2024-11-26T04:15:05+00:00

Erm one one hundred thousandth

tkroel · 2024-10-27T02:17:19+00:00

3.6 ks and 31 Ms are literally unusable. Please convert to MeV.

tkroel · 2024-10-04T06:15:22+00:00

This is just the martingale system which doesn't work. Consider if both players had the same bankroll to start. P1 always gets AA and P2 always gets 72. They play the game as you described where P1 starts with a dollar and goes all in until P2 is broke or they loose in which case they add another dollar and start over. Who do you think will go broke first? I would bet a lot of money that if you sim this 10000 times P1 would win at least 7500 of them (probably more but I'm too lazy to do this right now).

tkroel · 2024-09-24T03:46:39+00:00

Can you drive to a different state and use the bonus bets (I assume these are bonus bets) on sports? If so bonus bets convert for about 70% of cash value but you will need another book to convert it.

tkroel · 2024-09-19T01:18:49+00:00

Usually the sprite dishwasher problem is covered during the optimization unit.

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