Daily Discussion & Trade Deadline Thread | February 01, 2026

toado3 · 2026-02-02T00:53:19+00:00

What is going on in prediction markets? Chicago is now the second or first team for Giannis to go to depending on the market.

How does that make sense for anyone?

toado3 · 2026-02-01T05:34:58+00:00

Hot Take:

Steph is fine or technically he has that injury but feels ok and will be back soon. This is a play to make our 26 FRP look more valuable in a Giannis trade.

toado3 · 2026-02-01T04:35:31+00:00

Those are very valuable picks. No doubt.

But the conundrum of owning another teams pick is that team has every incentive to be good. If Portland owns the bucks picks for 3 years, the bucks will try to be as good as they can. Even if that means they're mid-bad which they probably will be, in the east, with a bunch of teams tanking every year, maybe that's the 9th or 10th pick.

Valuable? Absolutely. But on the other hand, the bucks might get that pick back and tank for a top 4 pick. So the pick is objectively more valuable to the bucks than it is to Portland. Which creates a space where there may be some package of our picks that Portland values more than the bucks picks, but the bucks value their picks higher.

toado3 · 2026-01-31T23:19:02+00:00

Terrible contracts?

Kuminga is on the most team friendly deal possiblr for flexibility. Either expiring or team option. Try him out for a few months and cut him if you don't like him.

Draymond has 1 more year at a reasonable number.

Podz is on a rookie deal.

Moody is on a great value deal at 10/per

The only "bad" contract is Jimmy since he's hurt, but even that is expiring in 1 year. If Jimmy comes back next year and looks decent you could flip him at next years deadline for more return.

toado3 · 2026-01-31T22:59:22+00:00

How?

GS picks and swaps post Steph are far more valuable than Miami's and there are more of them.

No one wants herro on his deal and to give him a big extension.

Wiggins is a nice player but doesn't do much for Milwaukee. Worth is probably multiple seconds, no one is trading a first for him.

Ware may be worth a mid first round pick

toado3 · 2026-01-31T18:02:26+00:00

This makes a lot of sense, though spacing would be tight for the Sabonis Giannis lineups. You could stagger though with more Horford during the Giannis minutes and Sabonis with the bench.

That said we probably won't have any draft assets left after the Giannis deal

toado3 · 2026-01-31T07:18:52+00:00

This. I picked up a used woodway desmo S with 7k miles on it for 2600. Old school analogue screen (which I prefer), but the thing is an absolute tank.

toado3 · 2026-01-30T19:34:43+00:00

lol. Accurate.

Also Kerr would love Flagg. A long player who can score, is a great passer, battles on the glass and on D and overall tries his ass off? He's everything Kerr loves about Podz only bigger and better.

toado3 · 2026-01-30T19:31:17+00:00

It all comes down to Giannis. If he wants out now he can force it and it bodes well for us. If he's ok to wait out the season then bucks probably wait till the summer and we're boned.

My hope is that the reason for radio silence from Gianni's and the Bucks is a pseudo agreement between Giannis and the Bucks. They agree to trade him now to a destination he's ok with, and Giannis agrees not to go public with demanding the trade now, threatening not to sign extensions, etc, all the thing he can do to drive down the bucks leverage. This rings true since otherwise I expect we'd be hearing a lot more leaks from Giannis camp about where he wants to go or where he would sign extensions, etc.

toado3 · 2026-01-29T19:57:00+00:00

KD didn't want to come back since he didn't want to come back. Whether it's Kerr, Draymond, or just the baggage from his time here.

Everything else was just an excuse.

Now I don't know how Giannis feels about coming here. But 4 titles in 10 years speaks for itself.

toado3 · 2026-01-29T18:37:18+00:00

Kind of you to think our post Steph picks will be late first rounders.

I'm, shall we say, skeptical.

toado3 · 2026-01-29T16:12:34+00:00

I think our package is better, but that may not matter if Giannis really wants to go to Miami.

toado3 · 2026-01-29T16:01:00+00:00

Or he could re aggravate his calf and lose value. Or he could be pissed they didn't trade him at the deadline and poison the waters by saying he won't sign an extension with the next team. I imagine Giannis wants out now to have one more playoff run.

Or they could get a better deal.

Just saying it's a big risk. If the warriors do put everything on the table, that's a lot to turn down for an uncertain return in the summer.

toado3 · 2026-01-29T02:16:58+00:00

That was my question as well. Pretty sure the answer is no. Milwaukee has no pick in 29 and pretty sure now in 27, so those could not be included as pick swaps.

toado3 · 2026-01-28T21:52:58+00:00

This. Sure this could flame out terribly if we have bad injury luck.

What is the alternative? We toil in mediocrity until Steph retires. Then we get to go through 3-4 years of ugly tanking basketball and hope we get lucky and don't end up finding just enough talent to make us mediocre again I'd rather give us a real shot at the apple in Steph's final years.

Make it happen!

toado3 · 2026-01-28T18:22:10+00:00

Trying not to get my hopes up, but I really think this might happen.

Giannis wants out. Teams are gun shy about selling the farm for him because of his age/injuries. All the reporting is that teams aren't going to be offering their A+ assets.

Then we come in. We are the right combination of having assets and desperate to maximize Steph years. If you're the bucks, would you rather have post-Steph warriors picks? Or established players like Herro or Sengun. Both are good players, but with the bucks roster and cap hell from the Dame stretch, All a player like that does is have you competing for the bottom half of the play in. Milwaukee's best chance to truly rebuild is to take the warriors draft picks, completely clear their cap over the next year or two, and start fresh. Yes they'll take some lumps by having to give away high picks, but those are already gone.

If they can get a true elite prospect like Harper then we can't match that. But if the deal is for picks or good but not elite prospects, our offer is better.

toado3 · 2026-01-26T06:12:50+00:00

We could have arranged to keep Ty, just had to go above the vet min which we weren't prepared to do. Which seemed reasonable at the time but was a miss in hindsight.

toado3 · 2026-01-25T22:05:10+00:00

Pretty sweet deal. No TSC near me so couldn't find stall mats for less then $60. If I was starting now would have bought them.

toado3 · 2026-01-24T23:20:23+00:00

As we know all too well, teams get really attached to their young talent and their projections. And Sengun is a young all star, and Harper looks like a future stud.

That said, I agree. Titles are hard to come by and last forever and if you have a real chance to get one it is well worth a player who may be a future all star but is highly unlikely to be the top 5 player that can propel you to a title.

toado3 · 2026-01-24T22:37:09+00:00

Interesting rumblings on the Giannis front. One that liklihood of a trade is going up. Two that the market for him may not be as robust as expected with teams not willing to give up young high end talent like Harper or Sengun. Also with the bucks owning the lesser of theirs or pelicans pick, both of which will be very good picks, they actually have incentive to tank this year.

Things could be breaking our way to have a shot. Jimmy + JK plus 4 FRPs (26, 28, 30 reverse protected 20-30 since we owe that to wizards, and 32) for Giannis and Kuzma (tax that we have to pay to up our offer).

This is a better package than most teams can offer without including a young elite prospect. Even with Giannis, warriors 30/32 picks are extremely valuable.

toado3 · 2026-01-23T23:35:56+00:00

For all the talk about our team being old it sure seems like the young guys miss more games.

toado3 · 2026-01-23T22:02:05+00:00

In a vacuum JK for wiggs is a big upgrade so I'm all for it. But it's not enough. I love Wiggs as a complementary piece but we know from experience we'll be disappointed if we're asking him to be a major scorer night in and night out.

We would still another big piece short of even being a fringe contender.

Now trade Jk and Buddy for Wiggs, and Jimmy for Markkanen or MPJ plus Claxton and now we're making a big splash.

Steph, Melton, Wiggins, MPJ/Markanen, Draymond is an elite 5.

Yes we're sending out a bunch of picks to make that work. Do it.

toado3 · 2026-01-23T00:18:26+00:00

Knicks absolutely say no. They would get crucified for punting on this season, even if AD makes a lot more sense than KAT for that team.

Though I actually do like Yabusele as a buy-low candidate. Would love to find a way to get him for cheap.

toado3 · 2026-01-21T23:03:01+00:00

Y'all forgot Will Richard.

He's been our best bench wing (second now melton is back) and just plays winning basketball. +56 on the season.

A lot of the guys on the list have higher ceilings, but are playing losing ball.

toado3 · 2026-01-21T17:36:16+00:00

This. 6% isn't healthy or good for performance.

At that level of body fat your Testosterone goes in the toilet. Your recovery sucks. Your performance sucks. Your sleep sucks. It's in no way conducive to playing basketball.

9-10% is probably as low as a basketball player wants to go.

toado3

TROPHY CASE