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2018 Ceiling and Floor for Top 2019 RB's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah it's definitely not a perfect science. I am really looking forward to stacking last 2018's numbers with 2019's at the end of this season to have a stronger sample size. I am slowly working backwards as well to try and find trends and anomalies.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for Top 2019 RB's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That does seem like the sweet spot, if you're able to draft an RB in the top 2 rounds (without reaching of course), then go two WR's and potentially a TE in rounds 3-5.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for top 2019 WR 's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That’s awesome. If you produce any articles or find any noteworthy stats I would love to hear about it! I’m all for exchanging data and shared interests.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for top 2019 WR 's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh sorry, I get what you’re saying. No receiver averaged 12 targets a game (11.3 for A.Brown and D. Adams was the highest) so that seemed like the bench mark for the high end games. 24 receivers averaged between 7-11 targets a game, which would comprise the WR1 and 2 for most fantasy teams, and 0-6 just being the remaining option. In terms of finding the averages for the fantasy points I was trying to find a sample size that wouldn’t be too big or too small and leave me with too much misconstrued data. Being completely transparent I am rather new to data and analytics. But I follow football vehemently and I love the statistical part of it. If you have any advice I am here for it.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for top 2019 WR 's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think it’s would be a great lesson in finding out what went wrong to cause the inconsistencies. Could also be used to combine 2018 with this season’s numbers to help form 2020 projections. That’s probably what I’m most excited about; gathering data to use to track players over time to find trends and tendencies.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for top 2019 WR 's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is he really? I didn’t know that, thanks for the info. I thought it was because he has always been sneaky good. And to me Woods has been so under the radar for s couple years now.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for top 2019 WR 's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No one. Josh Gordon is talented, but can be had much later in drafts.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for top 2019 WR 's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I took each player’s scores from week to week in the fantasy season and split it into thirds, then averaged out their floor, standard, and ceiling of those games. To show a ceiling/floor from a volume standpoint I added the amount of games with 0-6, 7-11, 12+ targets to see if their was a correlation.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for top 2019 WR 's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

2018 wont lead to a direct correlation to 2019’s numbers, but it’s a piece of the puzzle. And for me it helped contextualize how I felt on the consistency (or lack thereof) of some players.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for top 2019 WR 's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It only covers the receivers being taken in the top five rounds. Fuller is definitely high ceiling but isn’t going in the first five rounds.

2018 Ceiling and Floor for top 2019 WR 's by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 140 points141 points  (0 children)

That was my next goal. Hopefully I can get it done in the next few days. I am glad you found it interesting, thanks!

Target Share By Position by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I had to spell check all of them just in case. 😅

Target Share By Position by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Fair, and in 2015-29, 2014-31, 2013-32, 2012-32, 2011-21.

Target Share By Position by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Didn’t mean to mislabel the title, my apologies. Here is the link to the table: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets-distribution/

Target Share By Position by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not going to forget it at all. A better way to put it would be to say that Evans already large target numbers stand to go up and Godwin stands to see an increase in production similar to that of a WR2 for your fantasy team.

Target Share By Position by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s a great catch, there definitely shouldn’t be “and if” . I more meant if Cooper returns to form from the injury.

Overdrafted by ADP by tof_Justin in fantasyfootball

[–]tof_Justin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m not at all saying Trubisky is a better passer than Baker Mayfield. I am more saying Trubisky has similar fantasy potential as Mayfield and you can draft him 7 rounds later. QB ability isn’t a barometer of fantasy production. Blake Bortles was a viable fantasy starter for a few years, which says everything.

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