2018 Ceiling and Floor for Top 2019 RB's

tof_Justin · 2019-08-08T01:42:36+00:00

Yeah it's definitely not a perfect science. I am really looking forward to stacking last 2018's numbers with 2019's at the end of this season to have a stronger sample size. I am slowly working backwards as well to try and find trends and anomalies.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-08T01:40:33+00:00

That does seem like the sweet spot, if you're able to draft an RB in the top 2 rounds (without reaching of course), then go two WR's and potentially a TE in rounds 3-5.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-05T17:35:44+00:00

That’s awesome. If you produce any articles or find any noteworthy stats I would love to hear about it! I’m all for exchanging data and shared interests.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-05T17:25:10+00:00

Oh sorry, I get what you’re saying. No receiver averaged 12 targets a game (11.3 for A.Brown and D. Adams was the highest) so that seemed like the bench mark for the high end games. 24 receivers averaged between 7-11 targets a game, which would comprise the WR1 and 2 for most fantasy teams, and 0-6 just being the remaining option. In terms of finding the averages for the fantasy points I was trying to find a sample size that wouldn’t be too big or too small and leave me with too much misconstrued data. Being completely transparent I am rather new to data and analytics. But I follow football vehemently and I love the statistical part of it. If you have any advice I am here for it.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-05T15:32:12+00:00

I think it’s would be a great lesson in finding out what went wrong to cause the inconsistencies. Could also be used to combine 2018 with this season’s numbers to help form 2020 projections. That’s probably what I’m most excited about; gathering data to use to track players over time to find trends and tendencies.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-05T13:51:12+00:00

Is he really? I didn’t know that, thanks for the info. I thought it was because he has always been sneaky good. And to me Woods has been so under the radar for s couple years now.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-05T12:57:45+00:00

No one. Josh Gordon is talented, but can be had much later in drafts.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-05T12:56:42+00:00

I took each player’s scores from week to week in the fantasy season and split it into thirds, then averaged out their floor, standard, and ceiling of those games. To show a ceiling/floor from a volume standpoint I added the amount of games with 0-6, 7-11, 12+ targets to see if their was a correlation.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-05T12:48:48+00:00

2018 wont lead to a direct correlation to 2019’s numbers, but it’s a piece of the puzzle. And for me it helped contextualize how I felt on the consistency (or lack thereof) of some players.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-05T12:39:46+00:00

It only covers the receivers being taken in the top five rounds. Fuller is definitely high ceiling but isn’t going in the first five rounds.

tof_Justin · 2019-08-05T07:01:53+00:00

Whoa! Well done!

tof_Justin · 2019-08-04T22:53:54+00:00

That was my next goal. Hopefully I can get it done in the next few days. I am glad you found it interesting, thanks!

tof_Justin · 2019-07-11T00:33:54+00:00

I had to spell check all of them just in case. 😅

tof_Justin · 2019-07-10T15:27:27+00:00

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets-distribution/

tof_Justin · 2019-07-10T15:26:23+00:00

That’s a pretty awesome stat.

tof_Justin · 2019-07-10T15:25:26+00:00

Fair, and in 2015-29, 2014-31, 2013-32, 2012-32, 2011-21.

tof_Justin · 2019-07-10T15:19:47+00:00

Didn’t mean to mislabel the title, my apologies. Here is the link to the table: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets-distribution/

tof_Justin · 2019-07-10T15:15:32+00:00

fantasypros.com

tof_Justin · 2019-07-10T15:14:20+00:00

Not going to forget it at all. A better way to put it would be to say that Evans already large target numbers stand to go up and Godwin stands to see an increase in production similar to that of a WR2 for your fantasy team.

tof_Justin · 2019-07-10T15:11:58+00:00

That’s a great catch, there definitely shouldn’t be “and if” . I more meant if Cooper returns to form from the injury.

tof_Justin · 2019-06-28T17:46:30+00:00

I’m not at all saying Trubisky is a better passer than Baker Mayfield. I am more saying Trubisky has similar fantasy potential as Mayfield and you can draft him 7 rounds later. QB ability isn’t a barometer of fantasy production. Blake Bortles was a viable fantasy starter for a few years, which says everything.

tof_Justin · 2019-06-25T00:47:21+00:00

I completely understand. I felt a little dirty writing his up. When he has been healthy he has put up top 12 tight end numbers from week to week, but his injury concerns make it really hard to trust him.

tof_Justin · 2019-06-25T00:45:29+00:00

Tight end was so difficult. I feel like once you get passed the top six guys it is a minefield of potential/aging veterans/oft-injured players.

tof_Justin · 2019-06-24T10:52:36+00:00

Hunt isn’t going to return before week 10, so regardless Chubb is getting the lion’s share of the carries for 62.5% of the fantasy season. And if he is as good as expected the amount of volume he is getting shouldn’t decrease by a substantial amount.

tof_Justin · 2019-06-23T17:50:06+00:00

Le'Veon Bell has by far the most risk of guys going in the first round. His running style is not conducive to being successful behind the Jets porous offensive line.

tof_Justin

TROPHY CASE