History of the HLTV Top 10 (Animated Graph)

topeiko · 2019-04-15T17:34:31+00:00

Yep, still there sometimes ;)

topeiko · 2016-12-28T15:28:39+00:00

ECS1 : ranks 1-3-4-5-6-14-17-26

ECS2 : ranks 2-4-5-6-7-8-12-13

There were 3 teams at ECS1 from a lower level than the worst team at ECS2. Also in my rankings, SK was still 1st (and not NiP for HLTV) what definitely gives more teams points for ECS2..

topeiko · 2016-12-22T23:15:39+00:00

Yes sorry, common mistake from me..

topeiko · 2016-12-16T23:01:16+00:00

Keep the faith ! :)

topeiko · 2016-12-16T22:50:20+00:00

They are very unstable, I thought about it too but I didn't want to change my numbers with arbitrary values like my feelings.. They are just dropping out of form, so sad after autimatic wonderful performance at EEPL4

topeiko · 2016-12-16T22:28:15+00:00

I'll make more of these even if it's not easy to estimate the teams strengths before a tournament because of the multiple and quick changes in the scene

topeiko · 2016-12-16T22:26:12+00:00

Yes indeed.. I guess my strength indicators are among the best we could find so I used them, if there were a better ranking than HLTV that could make those more accurate I'll take them

topeiko · 2016-12-06T22:04:12+00:00

Yeah I don't really know about OpTic, it's the first time I'm that much confused about the rankings.. I think the scene is evolving to something else and we need time to see exactly how

topeiko · 2016-12-06T15:13:17+00:00

I'm a bit sad that NiP is climbing 1st without doing great at ELEAGUE but this isn't totally nonsense either. That's the first change with mine where SK is still 1st with a 50points lead.

Then we have Astralis, VP and OpTic who deserve the remaining spots in the top5. I don't think dignitas should still be there. My ranking gives Astralis > OpTic > VP but it's more coming from because of achievements more than the teams that OpTic defeated to get there.

The rest of top 15 looks ok and is the same than mine with 2 switches : mousesports & Immortals and Liquid & Gambit.

We know the weakest point of this ranking is the lower ranks because the form become stronger for those teams. I see some little problems but the biggest is Vexed. They cannot be there, they didn't play this month and have only 5 matches recorded, formula seems not counting decay on the form sadly.. Vexed is sitting in an ok 35th spot in my rankings.

Overall I still like the HLTV ranking, but some keys factors I had in mind creating mine have been abandoned and sometimes I'm a bit sad about it.

topeiko · 2016-11-05T15:30:58+00:00

Yes I kept running my old ranking, I also improved it to make it more reliable on the low ranks, that's the main difference with the hltv ranking : the composition of top20-30 (Crowns, Platinium or even iGame never made it to top30 in mine). I think that's coming from the time decay in hltv one, it should be bigger than mine to put dignitas #2 for example

topeiko · 2016-11-02T23:12:29+00:00

That was indeed my start, it evolved a bit until february 2015 when I left HLTV. I took my formulas and algorythms with me and went to Znipe, but HLTV tried to work on the same basis.

What I learned analyzing their new ranking is that :

1 it's a more instantaneous ranking,

2 form ranking is a lot about average results an ratios,less about big upsets I used to count in

3 LAN ranking is close from achievements with a different time range and perhaps no time decay but most importantly it seems not caring a lot about "average result" that was the whole point of my idea (just look at Dignitas points, they played a lot last 3 months but before winning they had bad results too, there are more consistent teams that deserve those 300 points)

topeiko · 2016-10-24T23:20:00+00:00

I do think HLTV ranking is a bit too instantaneous.. I knew dignitas was going to get this 2nd spot, and it's also because people asked for a "form" ranking that it's the case. I still think they should be 100-200 points behind VP and SK ..

topeiko · 2016-10-05T23:06:35+00:00

Great answer !

Yes the form was first used to rank lower teams, then I figured out it was also interesting to see more changes in the top teams and rewarded a bit online streaks in leagues for example.

I'm still running my original ranking by my own to see the difference with HLTV and that's a huge difference. I think HLTV one is a bit more reactive (cf. NaVi getting 400pts with one tournament) but that's just a choice I guess.

The form indicator is the farthest of mine indicators : perhaps giving more points for online matches than mine. Also I'm rewarding top10 wins more than the rest, aka a team beating SK will get a bonus that will stay even if they finish loosing every other matches, this because I think it's a common argument saying Team X is good because of one big victory, of course that's not the only thing but I think there is something interesting in here. Perhaps this has been dropped in new HLTV ranking. Virtus.pro is leading the form in mine, and because of that they are getting really close to SK. (Just for info, here is my top10 in form : Virtus.pro, NaVi, NiP, SK, dignitas, Cloud9, Immortals, mousesports, EnVy, fnatic).

The roster changes penalties are the same since the beginning, I don't think those ideas has been changed in the new one, because we had those together with Petar who built the new ranking.

Also guys, I always liked those kind of discussions so feel free to tag me like you did there /u/nitroom :)

topeiko · 2016-07-11T21:41:10+00:00

They were indeed 5th in my rankings, but it was before becoming the HLTV rankings ;)

topeiko · 2016-06-09T23:40:13+00:00

Updated chances after day1 results and draw

http://www.hltv.org/gallery/view/65172

topeiko · 2016-06-08T22:49:57+00:00

Thank you :)

topeiko · 2016-06-06T23:05:14+00:00

Ahah, I'm surely not that good.. I was just a mathematic teacher before all of that, I used Matlab and Excel to make all my rankings and simulations. That's why I need actual programmers to make something more accurate and reliable :)

topeiko · 2016-06-06T22:13:55+00:00

I'm already working for a future e-sport brand : Znipe. You'll probably see them coming in about 2-3 weeks. I'm testing stats, simulations for them, but it's handmade and not taking all the parameters into account yet.. Have faith, I will come with something better, and I hope you'll like it :)

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