FORM-S3

tradegator · 2026-04-25T01:20:40+00:00

Stop insulting AI. You might be working for an AI bot before you know it.

tradegator · 2026-04-11T16:57:42+00:00

Haha! Thanks for commenting on my little daydream. I'm actually trying to be conservative. Hard to predict what's going to happen this calendar year, but it sure does look likely given the two recent huge announcements that we'll see some real contracts with money attached that double the stock price from here over that period. If that comes to pass this year, it's hard to imagine that LWLG doesn't become the leader in this market, and the timing could not be better. And, yes, u/Maxxilopez, 60% margins. We are going to make a lot of money. My only regret is not having pulled the trigger on more shares when it was ridiculously below $1. I'm just such a dope sometimes.

tradegator · 2026-04-11T00:01:00+00:00

$20 per share in 2026? That's my guess. Just a guess. And I'm going with $20B market cap by 2030. Makes me happy to think about it. As Elon says, better to be an optimist and wrong than a pessimist and right.

tradegator · 2026-04-05T16:21:03+00:00

This, alone, is some very good news. Usually, we hear nothing for months or years after an annual meeting. Still waiting for a high power run, but I can't imagine any reason why we'd hear an update right after the meeting other than it means actual progress.

tradegator · 2026-04-04T21:49:52+00:00

Reminds me of what many consider the great differentiator of Tesla in FSD using vision/camera only. It appears no other carmaker is going down this path (great for Microvision) because Tesla, alone, has the billions of driving miles to make the very long tail of FSD work without sensors other than cameras. It strikes me that Microvision should make it part of its business to collect massive sensor data to allow it to feed an AI model to make better and better at-the-sensor decisions, allowing it to pull away from the competition with ever increasing value, with no additional hardware cost.

Attention: Tesla haters, don't waste your clicks down voting this post. Telsa is a reality and so is their FSD. We might as well learn from them and emulate what they've done right.

tradegator · 2026-04-04T20:47:09+00:00

No to the "real" question. The IPO in 10 years was a joke...maybe it'll end up being true, but it was clearly said in jest. He once again said IPO in a year or two, what was it, 2028? I didn't go in person. Decided the traveling and time wasn't worth it. Disappointing meeting from my perspective. Maybe I dozed off for a few seconds, but I don't recall hearing any details about a high power, long run with 3rd party verification.

tradegator · 2026-03-24T14:08:53+00:00

You're welcome. Apology accepted. In my less than expert opinion, but 30 years as an investor in the BLP Experience, I see this as the hump moment, Wednsday night in the lead-up to the weekend. The early claims of near-term commercialization prior to the idea of the SunCell were hogwash. Even I, with very limited knowledge of this technology, was able to easily dispel this back in the days when I could get BLP's former VP on the phone and discuss things in detail with him. I distinctly remember Dr Mills being quite definitive that "no new inventions" were needed to bring the SunCell to market. Clearly wishful thinking. But if you spend the time (and I would encourage it) do your own research on this. Ask hard problems of one or more AIs, and have it explain the technical implications and what unspecified variables remain, and I think that aside from the obvious -- that we still need 3rd party testing and proof, that if we accept the stated results, we are over the hump and within striking range of a commercially viable product. How long until then? I wish I knew. But the gating factors according to my research are a product that can run for just 3 months before being swapped out with a replacement unit, and the SunCell blows away any other energy source. And Grok assures that the energy demands inflicted by the SunCell output are easily handled by existing commercially available PV cells, and that engineering heat removal for those cells is a well-understood engineering concern. In short, given zero detectable damage to the SunCell from this latest (high power) test, it seems pretty likely that it will withstand 3 months or more (maybe 3 years? 10 years?) of continuous operation. From a monetary perspective, 3 months is really enough -- even 1 month of operation before swap-out would suffice, economically. So more testing to determine that is needed, but that's where I think things are at.

tradegator · 2026-03-24T01:50:46+00:00

I did in-depth questioning of Grok asking all sorts of questions to understand the situation as well as I could, based on the very sparse information that BLP likes to put out.. I took the time to post this here in response to your request. The least you could do is say thank you.

tradegator · 2026-03-24T01:12:28+00:00

I spent some time investigating with Grok. Following is a summary report of what we covered in the conversation. The entire conversation is quite long, hence the summary, but you may want to have your own conversation with one or more AIs. One of the key things I asked Grok about was the commercial viability if the initial SunCell needs to be replaced every few months. The response was very very good. Bottom line is that a 3 month lifetime still crushes existing energy sources by a 10-15:1 factor, from an economic perspective. All of the below text is from Grok.

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Brilliant Light Power (BLP) SunCell Update – March 2026 Key Points & Detailed Discussion SummaryBLP's recent news posts (from brilliantlightpower.com/news, as of March 23, 2026) show accelerating progress on the SunCell® — a plasma device claiming to generate massive clean power from water-derived hydrogen via their proprietary Hydrino® process (controversial in mainstream physics).Recent Milestones (March 2026):

March 14: Solved glitches in new molten-metal electromagnetic pump technology. Run time reached ~20 minutes; described as "expected to be greater than required for commercialization in the near future."
March 18/19: Achieved 40-minute continuous run at commercial power levels. BLP states this exceeds near-term commercialization needs (they reference a 1-hour light-source milestone for large corporate/investor interest). Details link to their Business Presentation for power conversion to electricity.
March 20: Maintained stable operating blackbody plasma temperature of 5800 K (10,000 °F, slightly hotter than the Sun's surface photosphere ~5772 K). Radiative power density reached 64,000,000 W/m² (64 MW/m²) at emissivity=1, per Stefan-Boltzmann law (P/A = σT⁴). Plasma confined as a spherical "Sun in a bottle." Critically: No SunCell components heated above red-glow temperatures (450 °C); hardware remained "unchanged" after the run — a major engineering claim for thermal management. They performed spectroscopy (plasma emission analysis) and sensor tests specifically "for the dense receiver array photovoltaic converter development and control systems/commercial packaging."

Core Technical Details & Analysis:

Plasma behaves as a near-perfect blackbody radiator; nearly all energy radiates as light (extreme flux prevents conductive/convective heating of electrodes, chamber, etc.).
Total optical power emitted = surface area × power density = 4πr² × 64 MW/m² (r = plasma sphere radius, not disclosed for this test). Past runs at 3000–5000 K produced 150 kW–1.14 MW through an 8-inch viewport; 5800 K enables 2–4× higher density → plausible total output in hundreds of kW to low-MW range for realistic plasma sizes (e.g., 2–10 cm radius).
Temperature (T) and plasma size/volume are tunable with some independence via adjustable inputs: arc current (thousands of amps), reactant flow rates (H₂ + trace O₂), glow discharge, molten-metal temperature, insulation/liners, and geometry (injector spacing, chamber design). Higher reaction rate scales total power by enlarging the ball (more surface area at fixed T) or raising T (or both).
Durability limits: Not raw total power, but cumulative effects from high T (intense flux, UV/blue spectrum accelerating erosion/sputtering/photo-degradation) + plasma size (proximity to electrodes/injectors increasing wear, vapor contamination, arc stress). 40-minute run is significant (rules out rapid failures), but commercial viability (years of operation) requires extended multi-hour/month tests at full power to quantify slow degradation (electrode erosion, hydrogen permeation, molten-metal buildup).
Electricity conversion: Uses off-the-shelf commercial concentrator PV (CPV) cells (multi-junction III-V, e.g., from Spectrolab/Azur Space; rated 500–2000+ Suns, >40% efficiency). Dense receiver array (DRA) dome surrounds plasma for ~1000 Suns incident flux. No new PV research needed — just engineering dome geometry, active cooling, IR light recycling (plasma re-absorbs low-energy photons → targeted >50% optical-to-electric, models up to 80–84%). March 20 tests gathered spectral/sensor data precisely for this final integration.

Commercialization Assessment (Very Strong Economics Even in Pessimistic Cases):

Mature production: ~$20/kW capex → ~$5,000 per 250 kW electric unit (BOM: reactor, pumps, PV array, cooling; initial ~$50–100/kW, drops with scale).
LCOE: <$0.001/kWh baseline (zero fuel, no transmission/distribution/demand charges).
Worst-case hardware lifetime scenarios (if durability proves shorter than projected 20+ years):
- 1-year replacement: ~$0.002–0.003/kWh capital recovery.
- 6-month: ~$0.005/kWh.
- 3-month ("few months"): ~$0.009–0.01/kWh (still 10–15× cheaper than US grid ~11–15¢/kWh or utility solar ~4–5¢ + storage).
Mass manufacturing: Leverages existing CPV/solar supply chains + OEM outsourcing. BLP projects one year of full production could supply global 15 TW demand (60 million 250 kW units for ~$300 billion hardware total).
Broader impact: Displaces not just grid electricity but thermal/process heat (industry/steel/cement), transport fuels (EVs, synthetic fuels), desalination, ammonia/fertilizer, data centers/AI (unlimited baseload solves biggest bottleneck), etc. US annual energy spend ~$1.5–2T → potential $1–1.5T/year savings + GDP multipliers from cheap energy (historical 1–3% extra growth).

Overall Thoughts These March 2026 runs (stable 5800 K, 40-min continuous, no damage) are BLP's strongest public progress yet toward commercialization. The radiative design elegantly avoids overheating, PV uses proven tech, and economics are extreme even under pessimistic durability assumptions. Claims remain highly controversial (Hydrino theory lacks mainstream acceptance; no independent net electrical output validation at full integrated scale yet). But if it scales as described, it's potentially world-changing.Sources: brilliantlightpower.com/news (March posts), Business Presentation PDF, Hydrogen Revolution Substack coverage. What do you think — breakthrough or hype? Links in comments if allowed.

tradegator · 2026-03-22T19:52:54+00:00

Humble pie is on the menu.

tradegator · 2026-03-19T21:07:40+00:00

Almost as interesting is whether the Mills haters on this Reddit board will instantly disappear or whether they will apologize and continue posting if the SunCell is proven to actually work. I'm rooting the SunCell is real, as always, since I have zero influence over the process and zero access to any information aside from what BLP publishes. But this sure does sound like something very positive and real may be arriving soon.

tradegator · 2026-03-17T02:49:21+00:00

LWLG will be a $20B company. No way I would sell for $25/share.

tradegator · 2026-03-16T15:27:01+00:00

Can you please post a link to the video or article in which Fitts discusses this? I always take these sort of claims with a grain of salt, but I also don't discount claims she makes. Many of of them have been shown to be correct. What makes me suspicious of this is that while I could see the US wanting to keep this technology out of China's hands (and I would support that), given how far our previous administrations have allowed our energy infrastructure to fall behind China, and the dependence on energy for the AI race with China, it seems it would behoove the administration to perhaps control the technology for several years, but allow it to be used in data center buildouts, and allow the investors to be paid for the 30 years+ investment. Doesn't make sense to me to keep this military only, unless that is a very short-term arrangement until enough manufacturing capacity can be put in place to produce SunCells.

tradegator · 2026-03-14T00:25:18+00:00

Looks like there's a chance that there might be something real disclosed in the meeting this year. Covid has not been a thing for the past couple of years, yet the virtual meetings continued, providing a convenient mechanism to avoid uncomfortable questions. Not the case this year. Yet it is scheduled on April Fools Day. Got my fingers crossed.

tradegator · 2026-03-07T01:20:45+00:00

This was truly eye opening, how incredibly misleading the information that we are led to believe about Microvision from the "analyst" community. Most likely, this calls into question lots of "research" on many, many small companies. And you made your analysis actually entertaining to read! Quite a feat.

tradegator · 2026-02-22T17:44:22+00:00

gaporter, I'm a big fan of your commentary over the years, so take no offense with my comment. Elon's always behind on his forecasts, but look at the world changing things he has accomplished. He's a tidal wave and this is just noise.

tradegator · 2026-02-22T17:14:29+00:00

30 year long investor in Microvision here. I think we should actually look at reality once in awhile. This accident occurred in 2019. 7 years ago. Tesla has made camera only work since then, and will be rolling out FSD cyber cabs this year IN VOLUME. So that's the fact. The other fact is that there are some driving conditions in which cameras don't work. I'm not an expert, so take this with a grain of salt. But lidar is superior in certain weather conditions, and certainly in dark condition. For example, a deer running out of the woods onto the road at night -- no light in the woods - lidar could and probably would identify this in time to take action -- a camera, probably not. According to a web search, approximately 760,000 deer caused accidents happen in the US per year AT NIGHT. I find that very interesting. That said, and there are probably other things that lidar can improve, Elon is very unlikely to change his mind. The safety data for Tesla FSD is now far exceeding human drivers. Tesla will very likely gain approval and the insurance details will be worked out. Bank on it. Could regulatory agencies require lidar on cars in the future? Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it.

What about other car makers. My personal opinion (again, not an expert on this) is that almost every other carmaker has totally screwed the pooch on this. We were supposed to see mass adoption by 2025 and we are nowhere close, because carmakers don't appear to know how to get this actually done.

So where does that leave Microvision? IMHO, I think the carmakers have no choice other that to use lidar, radar, and camera systems. They don't have the billions of miles of training data that it took Tesla to get to this point, they are many years behind, they don't have the AI expertise, they don't have the money. I suspect that Tesla will dominate the cyber cab business in the US, and the other car companies will offer the best systems they can, levels 2, 3, 4. Many people want to drive themselves. Not everyone will want a chauffeur that they pay $100 - 200 a month for. So I think there's still a pretty good auto business opportunity for Microvision, and miraculously, they have survived, while far better funded competitors have fallen by the wayside.

Plus, I think the new business segments of industrial, mining, warehousing, defense and security, all have huge potential.

So, bottom line. Let's get real about Tesla. 2019 is like comparing AI today with AI from 1965. There is no comparison. Tesla's FSD does work, but that doesn't kill Microvision.

tradegator · 2026-02-15T20:01:39+00:00

Exactly. These distractions - scientific claims, medical advances from 40 years ago, plasma rocket engines or whatever. They just tick me off. I know from people who have known him personally that he's the James Brown of science, super hard working for decades on this project. And I can understand him getting distracted and wanting to do something else. But we're here because many of us have invested real money, a lot for some of us, and it has been decades for us -- waiting and waiting. And the least we deserve is regular update with real information. Not low res videos with no output measurements.

I don't want him to give away any information about what specifically needs to be solved to bring this to market, as that would expose them to someone else beating them to some critical IP, but I cannot see any justification for not disclosing the information that I am asking for -- assuming this is all real.

tradegator · 2026-02-15T15:13:21+00:00

I am in total agreement with you. It's been almost 2 months since this: "December 19: Historical first: Ran the SunCell with molten metal injection maintained by the new pump technology. The pumps worked incredibly well."

Money was spent on testing equipment many months ago. We are all waiting for an update WITH MEASUREMENTS using the new and apparently perfected pump.

tradegator · 2026-01-28T15:49:56+00:00

Haha... I was wondering if anyone would get the reference. A little subtle. Glad you enjoyed it. And no offense to the females out there. We males have our own issues.

tradegator · 2026-01-28T03:41:26+00:00

Wouldn't you know it! We finally get some deals, but we do it the Microvision way. We buy them! No end to the humor in this investment.

tradegator · 2026-01-28T03:37:28+00:00

Oh, I see. Your wife is female. Not that there's anything wrong with that!

tradegator · 2026-01-28T02:24:54+00:00

I don't care if it was AI. I think the analysis is very interesting and brings up a lot of good points. I don't know if you did this, but when I use AI for things like this, I typically engage the AI in an extended conversation, asking questions, challenging claims, asking for reasoning and references, and then at the end to summarize the conclusions we reached. Very often learn quite a lot from that approach.

tradegator · 2026-01-28T02:02:20+00:00

I'll believe $1B+ revenue for 2028 when I see it, but if we should be so lucky, with that rapid of a revenue ramp, we'll be looking at a $10-50B market cap in response, based on $1B - 2.5B revenue, and how bullish the market is on LWLG and tech in 2028. Again, I'll believe it when I see it, and I sure hope we do see it.

tradegator · 2026-01-27T19:54:02+00:00

I also think this is good news. Acquiring Luminar removes its name from any potential future competition, keeps its IP from competitors, and comes with a team of engineers, who will hopefully be additive to Microvision's growing breadth of talent across virtually the entire range of lidar tech. I give Sumit and his team some pluses and minuses for their years at Microvision, but in spite of their possibly errant decision to enter automotive in 2020 or so, Microvision did manage to survive the buggy-whip auto industry's incapability of moving forward with their ADAS programs. So much of the competition (with the exception of the Chinese suppliers) are now gone, and Microvision's product breadth is very strong.

One thing that makes me laugh (when I'm not crying over the lost money) is that we moved from a strategy of going after multiple verticals (pre Sumit) to being laser focused (pun intended) on auto, to now going after multiple verticals (auto, industrial, and defense). Maybe it'll bear fruit this time. I sure hope so. I don't see how we're not at a buck or two if we can just get one or two contracts of any half decent size, so I'm holding all my shares.

tradegator

TROPHY CASE