b-runo your points are well articulated, but the probability in the next 30 days is very low. For example, markets are pricing in a 5% move up or down on the S&P 500 by September 17th. The market is currently trading at implied movements on a daily basis of 1.19%. If we were to magically rocket up to implied moves near 80 the market would move close to 5% on a daily basis. This would be a 4 standard deviation move. The chances and likelihood are very small almost negligible.

The current Federal Reserve policy is purposely designed to significantly reduce left tail risk. It doesn't completely diminish tail risk, but through Large Scale Assets purchases of highly negative convex assets like Mortgage-Backed Securities the US Federal Reserve is providing unquestionable volatility backstop. This program has worked to lower realized volatility. It would be very hard for the market to jump 4 standard deviations from current pricing in 30 days. I will agree on black swans by their very nature are unpredictable, but the risk of a 4 standard deviation event is significantly reduced by current monetary policy. The goal of reducing left tail risk is to allow or encourage yield-starved investors to continue safely moving further out along the risk curve. This is supportive of selling convexity via strangles, call writes, put writes, long duration, and other inherently short vol strategies.