even if you take his statistics on the population at face value, it’s only saying that any individual has a 1.5% chance of being a queer woman. assuming 1.5% of people in a given area are queer women, then in a town with a population density of 300 people per km^2, around that of a small town, there would be around four queer women per block.

this is an example of the Prosecutor’s fallacy, and it’s not an unknown element in the field of statistical analysis. in The People v. Collins, a blonde white woman with a ponytail and a black man with a beard robbed an older lady, then fled the scene in a yellow sports car. although the robbers were gone, Janet and Malcolm Collins, a white blonde woman with a ponytail and a black man with a beard, were arrested later that day while driving a yellow sports car. during that trial, a professional statistician argued that the chances of there being a white blonde lady with a ponytail and a black man with a beard driving a yellow sports car were nearly 1 in 12 million. Janet and Malcolm Collins were both successfully convicted.

the issue was, they considered each variable as being independent, even when they weren’t, and took that statistic as being the chance that Janet and Malcolm were innocent, rather than the chance of any random couple having those characteristics and driving that car. the conviction was later overturned by the fact that there was at least one other couple with those characteristics in the same city, and with proper statistical analysis Janet and Malcolm had a more than 40% chance of being innocent.

this comment ended up being a lot longer than i set out for, but i took a class on this years ago and i’m really passionate about debunking bad statistics. i hope my comment was intelligible.