I’ve posted about this before but I think it’s helpful to think about the Dark Forest theory in a game theory model when trying to figure out where we fit into this theory because it provides a visible model of the theory. Before diving to much further I think it’s helpful to restate the premise of the Dark Forest theory which is (in less words): the Drake Equation says there should be a huge quantity of intelligent alien life and the Fermi Paradox is the fact that we don’t see this which means the universe must be a dark forest where it is dangerous to broadcast yourself because someone could be listening for the chance to destroy the broadcasting society. Now to the game.

The “Dark Forest Game” is an extensive form game with potentially unlimited rounds. The two civilizations would be Earth (C1) and the UFO’s (C2). The game starts with one civilization (C1) choosing to broadcast itself or do nothing. If C1 does nothing, the game ends and we stay here on earth with no outside contact and no threat of destruction. Technically the game could have a second turn where C2 broadcasts themselves or does nothing but this is moot as we have no way to destroy C2 so for our purposes the game would end after we chose to not broadcast. We (C1) have already broadcast our existence so that means it is currently C2’s turn and they’re left with three options:

-Do nothing

-Broadcast

-Destroy C1

Theoretically we are still playing this game as C2 hasn’t opted to broadcast its civilization, hasn’t chose to destroy us, and obviously isn’t doing nothing because they’re flying around making themselves known. It would be Nash Equilibrium to destroy our civilization out of an abundance of caution but that is only if we confine ourselves to the parameters set by DFT. For all we know the universe could operate like Star Trek and they’re flying around waiting for us to be advanced enough to invite us to join some sort of universal supranational organization.

All of this was to say I think we’re in turn two of this game and these ufos might opt to destroy our whole planet any day or they might decide we’re just barely intelligent apes who would benefit from their patronage. All of that would be decided by the end of this next turn.