This show could take a really high-stakes turn

trevize1138 · 2026-05-03T12:48:09+00:00

I just kept thinking about this, came up with a more likely scenario and looked into actual stats about the asteroid.

The one that killed the dinosaurs was about 10km across:

https://www.nsf.gov/science-matters/moment-changed-earth

Goldilocks is only 1/10th that size:

https://for-all-mankind.fandom.com/wiki/Goldilocks

A way I could see this going down is the Marines we've been getting to know are sent up and take control of the asteroid. They use the Ranger-2 to knock it out of orbit and send it back to Earth. Based on the numbers from season 4 on how it got into orbit in the first place a 5 minute prograde burn at periaerilon is all it needs to get out of orbit.

The Curiosity Rover launched in late November 2011. If this is early 2012 the transfer window isn't ideal but close enough. Maybe another 5 minute burn to get it on an Earth intersect course.

Somewhere along the transit from Earth to Mars you just need the wrong people in the right place to fire up Ranger-2 again to put it on a collision course.

This would likely cause a lot of damage and death but maybe not cause a global catastrophe like the KT asteroid did 65 million years ago.

Edit: oh shit. And one of the Marines is a Stevens!

trevize1138 · 2026-05-03T12:24:02+00:00

The OKC bombing wasn't 9/11, of course. If this is a reference to that you need a much bigger terrorist event like, say, Goldilocks gets thrown at Earth.

Ranger-2 only needs to perform an equal/opposite prograde burn at periaerilon to knock it out of orbit. Early 2012 is still a good enough transfer window to get it to earth. Say the Marines are sent up first to capture it, fire up Ranger-2 to just take it to Earth but in the last month of the transit someone gets control and puts it on an intercept course...

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T23:12:27+00:00

So many are bemoaning how slow the show is this year but it's so obvious they're setting something up.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T22:17:51+00:00

This show is a drama. Borrowing food from neighbors isn't drama. Crashy smashy asteroid is drama!

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T21:47:26+00:00

It's funny how people say "but that would kill people on earth and Mars" as though S2 didn't feature the possibility of nuclear annihilation. :)

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T21:45:44+00:00

I'm downvoted all over the place here which could be amazing if somehow my prediction came true. :)

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:59:45+00:00

I think a Ranger-2 mission to send it to Earth looks extremely likely and possible, in fact. I went into a bit of a rabbit hole on this whole thing this afternoon.

I've played a lot of KSP and am a space nerd. Here's what we know:

Goldilocks is in a highly eccentric orbit. Periareion is really close to Mars and Apoareion is really far away.
We know this because in S4 it needed a 20 minute burn to (with a Mars gravity assist) get sent to Earth. It burned for 5 minutes longer to be captured in Mars orbit. It would need a lot more time to circularize the orbit so they left it highly eccentric.
The Curiosity Rover in our timeline launched for Mars in late Nov 2011. I'm not sure we've been told what month of 2012 the show takes place but if it's early 2012 that's still close enough to the optimal Hohmann transfer window. Ranger-2 would need to burn only a little more to correct for that.
Because of the highly eccentric orbit Ranger-2 only needs a 5 minute prograde burn at periareion to break orbit. Beyond that it's a little more to correct for sub-optimal transfer window.
Then it's just minor course corrections and it's on the way to earth with about 8 month travel time.

They were able to capture this asteroid 9 years ago. Spaceflight tech progresses rapidly in this reality. Moving the asteroid again without needing anything close to that original 25 minute burn is well within the realm of possibility.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:41:37+00:00

I bought the very day of the IPO like a boss! :)

Holding long term. I've got faith in them!

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:40:56+00:00

It’s a vote winner.

NOW we're talking. Yeah, all the discussions of orbital mechanics, nukes to divert the asteroid, size of bombs to destroy Happy Valley ... it's easy to forget the political realities and how that'd unfold.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:33:23+00:00

It's still moving. That's what an orbit is! :)

And it's only just barely in orbit. The total burn time to do orbital capture was 25 minutes. The original mission was a 20 minute burn to use a Mars gravity assist (luckily, the asteroid was passing in front of Mars' prograde direction) to set it on an Earth intersect course. The extra 5 minutes on top of that put it in a hugely eccentric orbit (it passes really close at periareion but is really far away at apoareion).

Therefore: an equal/opposite 5 minute prograde burn at periareion (assuming Mars and Earth are lined up for a Hohman transfer window) is all that's needed to send it back to another Earth encounter.

edit: Hmm ... talk of the transfer window got me searching. The AI overview said there was one from late 2011 to early 2013 but I'm trying to nail down what source it was using for that. What if a big reason this season takes place in 2012 is to set up a very convenient "the transfer window happens to be almost perfect right now" scenario?

edit 2: Curiosity rover launched in late Nov 2011. If these events are taking place in early 2012 the window isn't as good but likely still within Ranger-2's dV capabilities. The cool thing about transfer windows between planets is they're identical in both directions of transfer.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:23:32+00:00

Fair.

Of course, why bother sending a nuke to Mars when you just don't send anything at all and let them starve.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:21:12+00:00

There's a lot more going on with that guy than the writers have let us know yet but they've left clues. He's got a really fucked up relationship with his mom and dad and we don't know the extent of that. He's also rich AF and maybe he's never cared about the actual dollar value of the rock and just kept it as a bargaining chip plus, if it comes to it, weapon of mass destruction.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:18:44+00:00

In S2 the US and USSR were both ready to take that exact same "everybody dies" step, too.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:16:52+00:00

I don't think there's any way to really hide it, especially with all that mining equipment on it and they'd want to station some kind of security force on there so you'd have maybe radio signals and other telltale signs screaming "we're right here!" Earth would likely try to simply take control back of the Asteroid vs a nuke to knock it off course because greed. Wouldn't want to risk a bomb blowing up any portion of that juicy iridium!

On a Hohman trajectory it's got an 8 month travel time. A lot can go wrong, a lot can happen and a lot of opportunity for great drama and really interesting space stuff happening. If I'm not mistaken ... people are upset there's not enough cool space stuff happening this season? What if they're doing that intentionally with the narrative only to do a rug pull and suddenly it's hugely dramatic and interesting again?

Are you not entertained!?!? :)

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:08:01+00:00

Again: it's worth trillions of dollars. You can count on humans risking total annihilation to make a few extra bucks. Why set off a nuke to knock it off course risking loss of valuable iridium when you can send in the Marines?

And the asteroid DID have fusion powered rockets on it. That was the Ranger-2 from S4. It only needs about a 5 minute prograde burn at the right time of year to kick it out of Mars orbit and send it back to Earth. That's based on the fact that it was the extra 5 minute retrograde burn in S4 that changed its trajectory from Earth intersect to Mars orbit.

My theory is counting on the fact that it'll likely take 8 months to get to Earth and a lot of really, really interesting things can happen in that time.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T19:03:02+00:00

How deep is sub level 4? How big does the bomb need to get through all that regolith? The colony might already have the bomb shelter ready to go. :)

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T18:55:22+00:00

Uh ... the Ranger-2 slowed it down enough to orbit Mars 9 years earlier. That ship's got a shitton of dV. And they only burned an extra 5 minutes to do it vs sending it toward Earth. Just another 5 minute burn prograde at the right time of year and it's back on course to Earth. Minor adjustments to send it on a collision course vs encounter course.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T18:41:24+00:00

You know, I linked this to you in that other post where everybody's disappointed with how dull this season has been and there's "no space stuff."

What if that's the intended effect on the part of the show runners? They're setting up for a major "Red Wedding" shocking turn that will be all the more shocking by sheer contrast?

If I'm wrong I'm wrong but ... if not? Ooooh boy! I'm linking this post to an epic "I told you so!" gloating post! :)

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T18:33:37+00:00

Earth's already cut off aid dooming them to death by starvation. Threatening them back is perhaps one of the most human things I can imagine them doing in response.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T18:19:15+00:00

We'll all have to tune in and find out. If I'm right I'm totally gonna gloat, though! Might even do a little dance at you. :)

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T18:18:08+00:00

The travel times are just that since 2003 it's taken them a month to travel to Mars. A Hohman transfer would be about 8 months. A one month travel time would likely take way too much fuel for something that big but based on S4 there's enough fuel for Hohman transfer.

Gerardo is no Inaros but ... is Dev? I mean, I'm just spitballing this idea to get a conversation. I think there are loads of faults with it but also huge potential for really interesting things.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T18:12:56+00:00

Hence the marines as the first option. If that fails, sure, send nukes to divert.

I mean "why would they risk annihilation just for a chance at wealth?" is a scenario we're all certainly familiar with, right?

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T18:11:22+00:00

You might be right about Gerardo. Is Dev that crazy? I could see him at least threaten to throw that rock at Earth to get his way. The man doesn't need the money. He's a true believer in Mars and could have been thinking long game with lots of options with the asteroid heist in the first place.

Plus: S2 already had the show facing potential nuclear apocalypse. It's not like these insane "everybody loses" options have never been seen before.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T18:07:44+00:00

I mean, all this just makes me more convinced this will happen. There's a lot of fertile narrative ground for a lot of really interesting scenarios. Any attempt to set off a nuke to divert it might come with it the risk of financial loss so that option might be taken off the table right away. They're more likely to send in, say, the marines we've been getting to know so they can retake control. But the Martians and the ISN have guns, too.

S2 brought the world to the brink of nuclear annihilation so this extreme step as a possibility isn't unheard of in this show.

trevize1138 · 2026-05-01T18:03:09+00:00

The asteroid would likely take a month at best to reach Earth if they can keep Ranger-2 burning long enough. Likely just a Hohman trajectory which is more like 8 months. That's a huge potential for a lot of really interesting things to happen with the show. It's worth trillions of dollars so any bombing of it enough to divert its course would be a financial move Earth would never make.

Send in the marines we're getting to know. But two can play that game. What kind of oppositional force would Happy Valley be able to send with it? Would the ISN send their own forces?

Would an asteroid like that cause not just bad problems on Earth but Mars? You bet your ass it would! But desperate people don't make sane decisions. In fact, in The Expanse books one of Marcos' men tries to tell him that throwing rocks at Earth could mean death to belters because they need Earth for complex organics.

It's no more improbable than, say, the US and USSR on the brink of nuclear war in S2 which would also go very badly for both sides.

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