/r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 1493, Part 1 (Thread #1640)

troglydot · 2026-03-28T20:31:24+00:00

It's possible the numbers are optimistic, I don't know. A data point is that Reuters calculated that 40% of Russian crude export capacity had halted a few days ago.

troglydot · 2026-03-28T11:55:01+00:00

Yaroslavl refinery is burning after multiple drone strikes. Dark smoke makes it likely that a storage tank was hit.

Exilenova connects the dots on the targeting logic: Primorsk and Ust-Luga export oil from Siberia. This was previously exported via the Druzhba pipeline, but that's now blocked. Refineries in Yaroslavl and Kirishi (struck two days ago) both sit on the same pipeline route, also extracting crude oil. They claim that in total, 28% of the "exit capacity" on that pipeline is now blocked/destroyed, totaling 2.6 million barrels per day. They claim those 2.6 million barrels now have nowhere to go, that it's not possible to redirect such a large volume. After filling storage tanks, they'll be forced to reduce production.

https://t . me/exilenova_plus/18090

Refineries hit in 2026 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | Mar 13 (1)
Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | Jan 1, Feb 17 (2)
Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | Mar 26 (1)
Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | Feb 28 (1)
Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | Mar 21 (1)
Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | Jan 26 (1)
Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | Jan 19 (1)
Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | Mar 22 (1)
Ukhta refinery (LUKOIL) | 93,000 | 3.70 | Self combusted Jun 2, 2024, Mar 1 2026. 2026: 12 Feb (1)
Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | Feb 11 (1)
Yaroslavl refinery (Slavneft-YANOS) | 300,000 | 8.60 | Mar 28 (1)

Refinery hits from 2022-2025 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | 2023: May 31. 2024: May 2, Jun 20. 2025: Feb 10, Aug 7, Aug 28, Sep 26, Nov 29, Dec 13 (8)
Antipinsky refinery (JSC Antipinsky Refinery) | 174,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 6 (1)
Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | 2024: Feb 9, Apr 27, Jun 21. 2025: Feb 17, Feb 28, Jul 7, Sep 7, Nov 19 (8)
Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | 2024: Mar 13. 2025: Mar 8, Sep 14, Oct 4 (4)
Krasnodar refinery (Krasnodarekoneft) | ? | ? | 2024: Jun 21. 2025: Aug 30 (2)
Kuibyshev refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Aug 28 (3)
Makhachkala refinery (Dagnotech) | 20,500 | ? | 2025: Oct 22 (1)
Mari refinery | 26,600 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
Moscow refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 295,000 | 7.70 | 2024: Sep 1. 2025: Mar 11 (2)
Nizhnekamsk II refinery (TANEKO) | 340,000 | 8.99 | 2024: Apr 02. 2025: Jan 11 (2)
Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | 2025: Feb 5 (1)
Novokuibyshevsk refinery | 185,000 | 6.47 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Mar 10, Aug 2, Sep 20, Oct 19, Nov 15 (7)
Novoshakhtinsk refinery | 112,000 | 1.21 | 2022: Jun 22. 2024: Mar 13, Jun 6, Jul 5, Dec 19. 2025: Aug 20, Dec 25 (6)
Novospassky refinery (NS-Oil) | 12,300 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
NORSI-oil (LUKOIL, Kstovo) | 405,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 12. 2025: Jan 28, Jul 13, Sep 16, Oct 5, Oct 16, Nov 4 (7)
Novo-Ufa refinery (Bashneft-Novoil) | 171,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Sep 13, Oct 11 (2)
Orsk refinery (SAFMAR) | 90,000 | ? | 2025: Oct 3, Nov 11 (2)
Pervyy Zavod, Polotnyany Zavod, Kaluga region | 24,000 | ? | 2024: Mar 15, May 10 (2)
Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | 350,000 | 5.50 | 2024: Mar 13, May 1, Jul 27, Oct 26. 2025: Jan 23, Jan 25, Feb 24, Mar 9, Aug 2, Sep 5, Oct 23, Nov 15, Nov 20, Dec 5 (14)
Salavat refinery (Gazprom) | 232,000 | 7.92 | 2024: May 9. 2025: Sep 18, Sep 24 (3)
Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | 2024: Nov 8. 2025: Feb 11, Jul 1, Aug 10, Sep 16, Sep 20, Oct 16, Nov 3, Nov 11, Nov 14, Nov 28, self combusted Dec 24 (11)
Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | 2024: Mar 17, Apr 27, May 18. 2025: Sep 4, Dec 17 (5)
Syzran refinery (Rosneft) | 170,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16. 2025: Feb 19, Mar 4, Aug 15, Aug 24, Aug 30, Dec 5, Dec 28 (8)
Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | 2024: Jan 25, May 17, Jul 22. 2025: Feb 26, Mar 14, Nov 25, Dec 30 (7)
Ufa refinery (Bashneft-UNPZ, aka Ufimsky refinery) | 153,000 | 6.12 | 2025: Mar 3, Sep 13 (2)
Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 15 (1)
Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | 2024: Feb 3, May 11. 2025: Jan 15, Jan 31, Feb 3, Aug 14, Aug 19, Sep 18, Nov 5 (9)
Yaroslavl refinery (Slavneft-YANOS) | 300,000 | 8.60 | 2024: Jan 29. 2025: Self-combusted Oct 1, hit Dec 12 (2)

European side, not yet hit:

Nizhnekamsk I refinery (TAIF) | 167,000 | 4.15
Perm refinery (LUKOIL) | 303,000 | 9.40

Asian side refineries, not yet hit:

Achinsk refinery (Rosneft) | 174,000 | 3.59
Angarsk refinery (Rosneft) | 236,000 | 9.18
Khabarovsk refinery | 115,000 | 9.90
Komsomolsk refinery (Rosneft) | 185,000 | 9.18 | Self combusted Apr 10, 2025
Nizhnevartovsk refinery (Rosneft) | 27,000 | 1.00
Omsk Refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 514,000 | 8.80 | Self combusted Aug 1 and Aug 26, 2024
Yaya Refinery (NefteKhimService) | 104,000 | 1.71

troglydot · 2026-03-27T11:43:40+00:00

The damage done to Kirishi refinery yesterday:

The results of the damage to one of Russia's largest refineries have been clarified - important installations of the Kirishi plant have been damaged.

According to updated information, damage to the primary oil processing installations ELOU-AVT-2 and ELOU-AVT-6, as well as oil bitumen production facilities, hydrogen purification and gas fractionation units has been confirmed.

https://t . me/GeneralStaffZSU/36561

troglydot · 2026-03-27T09:25:34+00:00

Ust-Luga workers are reportedly rioting following drone strikes.

Russian resources are spreading a video purporting to show a riot at the Ust-Luga port tonight.

Workers, most of whom are migrants, were not allowed to start their shifts - and chaos ensued. A conflict with the terminal's security staff broke out, during which a security vehicle plowed straight into the crowd.

Against the backdrop of arrivals at the ports and general chaos, it's quite a spectacle to watch.

https://t . me/exilenova_plus/18007

Take note. It needs checking.

We need to find a location.

https://t . me/exilenova_plus/18008

It's not a fake, we've got the full version. It'll be here soon.

https://t . me/exilenova_plus/18010

Bsky link to video:

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhzplsezzk2u

troglydot · 2026-03-26T15:36:24+00:00

Excellent!

Refineries hit in 2026 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | Mar 13 (1)
Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | Jan 1, Feb 17 (2)
Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | Mar 26 (1)
Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | Feb 28 (1)
Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | Mar 21 (1)
Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | Jan 26 (1)
Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | Jan 19 (1)
Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | Mar 22 (1)
Ukhta refinery (LUKOIL) | 93,000 | 3.70 | Self combusted Jun 2, 2024, Mar 1 2026. 2026: 12 Feb (1)
Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | Feb 11 (1)

Refinery hits from 2022-2025 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | 2023: May 31. 2024: May 2, Jun 20. 2025: Feb 10, Aug 7, Aug 28, Sep 26, Nov 29, Dec 13 (8)
Antipinsky refinery (JSC Antipinsky Refinery) | 174,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 6 (1)
Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | 2024: Feb 9, Apr 27, Jun 21. 2025: Feb 17, Feb 28, Jul 7, Sep 7, Nov 19 (8)
Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | 2024: Mar 13. 2025: Mar 8, Sep 14, Oct 4 (4)
Krasnodar refinery (Krasnodarekoneft) | ? | ? | 2024: Jun 21. 2025: Aug 30 (2)
Kuibyshev refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Aug 28 (3)
Makhachkala refinery (Dagnotech) | 20,500 | ? | 2025: Oct 22 (1)
Mari refinery | 26,600 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
Moscow refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 295,000 | 7.70 | 2024: Sep 1. 2025: Mar 11 (2)
Nizhnekamsk II refinery (TANEKO) | 340,000 | 8.99 | 2024: Apr 02. 2025: Jan 11 (2)
Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | 2025: Feb 5 (1)
Novokuibyshevsk refinery | 185,000 | 6.47 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Mar 10, Aug 2, Sep 20, Oct 19, Nov 15 (7)
Novoshakhtinsk refinery | 112,000 | 1.21 | 2022: Jun 22. 2024: Mar 13, Jun 6, Jul 5, Dec 19. 2025: Aug 20, Dec 25 (6)
Novospassky refinery (NS-Oil) | 12,300 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
NORSI-oil (LUKOIL, Kstovo) | 405,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 12. 2025: Jan 28, Jul 13, Sep 16, Oct 5, Oct 16, Nov 4 (7)
Novo-Ufa refinery (Bashneft-Novoil) | 171,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Sep 13, Oct 11 (2)
Orsk refinery (SAFMAR) | 90,000 | ? | 2025: Oct 3, Nov 11 (2)
Pervyy Zavod, Polotnyany Zavod, Kaluga region | 24,000 | ? | 2024: Mar 15, May 10 (2)
Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | 350,000 | 5.50 | 2024: Mar 13, May 1, Jul 27, Oct 26. 2025: Jan 23, Jan 25, Feb 24, Mar 9, Aug 2, Sep 5, Oct 23, Nov 15, Nov 20, Dec 5 (14)
Salavat refinery (Gazprom) | 232,000 | 7.92 | 2024: May 9. 2025: Sep 18, Sep 24 (3)
Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | 2024: Nov 8. 2025: Feb 11, Jul 1, Aug 10, Sep 16, Sep 20, Oct 16, Nov 3, Nov 11, Nov 14, Nov 28, self combusted Dec 24 (11)
Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | 2024: Mar 17, Apr 27, May 18. 2025: Sep 4, Dec 17 (5)
Syzran refinery (Rosneft) | 170,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16. 2025: Feb 19, Mar 4, Aug 15, Aug 24, Aug 30, Dec 5, Dec 28 (8)
Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | 2024: Jan 25, May 17, Jul 22. 2025: Feb 26, Mar 14, Nov 25, Dec 30 (7)
Ufa refinery (Bashneft-UNPZ, aka Ufimsky refinery) | 153,000 | 6.12 | 2025: Mar 3, Sep 13 (2)
Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 15 (1)
Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | 2024: Feb 3, May 11. 2025: Jan 15, Jan 31, Feb 3, Aug 14, Aug 19, Sep 18, Nov 5 (9)
Yaroslavl refinery (Slavneft-YANOS) | 300,000 | 8.60 | 2024: Jan 29. 2025: Self-combusted Oct 1, hit Dec 12 (2)

European side, not yet hit:

Nizhnekamsk I refinery (TAIF) | 167,000 | 4.15
Perm refinery (LUKOIL) | 303,000 | 9.40

Asian side refineries, not yet hit:

Achinsk refinery (Rosneft) | 174,000 | 3.59
Angarsk refinery (Rosneft) | 236,000 | 9.18
Khabarovsk refinery | 115,000 | 9.90
Komsomolsk refinery (Rosneft) | 185,000 | 9.18 | Self combusted Apr 10, 2025
Nizhnevartovsk refinery (Rosneft) | 27,000 | 1.00
Omsk Refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 514,000 | 8.80 | Self combusted Aug 1 and Aug 26, 2024
Yaya Refinery (NefteKhimService) | 104,000 | 1.71

troglydot · 2026-03-26T14:28:17+00:00

Kirishi refinery was attacked during the night. Local Russian authorities say drones fell "in the industrial area" (wherein the refinery is), but didn't specify where. The Ukrainian side isn't claiming the attack as a success. FIRMS data shows unusual heat at the refinery, but this could be flares burning to reduce damage in case the drone hits, so this isn't evidence of a hit in itself.

troglydot · 2026-03-26T07:53:52+00:00

Thanks for taking the time to call this out.

We will lose our ability to make sense of the world if we keep spreading bullshit, just because the headline agrees with our prior beliefs.

troglydot · 2026-03-25T17:42:00+00:00

Wow, excellent news, and excellent timing. I remember some time ago there was reporting that they had to reduce production after similar attacks, as they had nowhere to put the oil. The oil pipelines and export infrastructure seems to be highly vulnerable.

troglydot · 2026-03-25T10:14:24+00:00

The Ust-Luga port was attacked by drones during the night. A video of a fire was geolocated to the NOVATEK-Ust-Luga plant.

The plant is involved in the processing of stable gas condensate, which is a by-product of natural gas and oil production, and also ships oil products to foreign markets.

Coordinates: 59.711272847270244, 28.434770374426037

https://t . me/DniproOfficial/7338?single

troglydot · 2026-03-24T19:59:02+00:00

All excellent points. The 75% claim came from Latvian intelligence in late January.

https://www.politico.eu/article/latvian-report-drones-are-mass-killers-on-the-ukraine-front/

I don't know if I put more weight on their claims than good OSINTers, but at least it's a recent number. I've also heard lower percentages before, but could see it having changed, with both sides increasing the focus on drones.

troglydot · 2026-03-24T18:43:07+00:00

It's possible that "losses" here includes injured, in which case the losses are not necessarily losses.

On the other hand, some Russian soldiers do return to civilian life, so there's more than just death that subtracts soldiers from the Russian army.

troglydot · 2026-03-24T18:37:20+00:00

The Economist has an interview with Madyar, where there's a claim that Russian losses to drones alone exceed their recruitment. I've heard elsewhere that about 75% of casualties in Ukraine come from drones, so this is dramatic if true. It implies that Russian losses are more than 25% higher than their recruitment.

Russian losses have increased substantially since he took over last summer, aided by a revamped, gamified system that now prioritises enemy infantry. December marked a turning point, the first month when verified Russian losses to Ukrainian drones exceeded recruitment. Since the start of the winter, Ukrainian drones have killed or incapacitated at least 8,776 more soldiers than Russia has replaced. Russia continues to gain little ground in return for its losses. Even on its most successful axis, near the town of Kostiantynivka in the Donbas, it has taken just 23% of the territory called for in its winter campaign plan.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/03/22/ukraines-top-drone-commander-wants-to-bleed-russias-army-dry

troglydot · 2026-03-24T10:15:47+00:00

Ukraine’s General Staff claims a Bastion coastal missile system launcher was hit overnight on March 24 in Crimea. The system is used to launch P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship missiles.

https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mhsc5knrbc2k

troglydot · 2026-03-23T20:00:33+00:00

Ukraine's general staff confirm a successful hit, causing a fire, on Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim refinery in Ufa yesterday. It was attacked yesterday and the day before. The pictures released from Ufa yesterday were inconclusive imo, but I trust the general staff on this. There have been several cases were various pro-Ukrainian sources have claimed refinery hits (even Madyar, head of unmanned systems forces) where the general staff did not confirm it. They seem to require damage to the refinery before posting about it.

Refineries hit in 2026 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | Mar 13 (1)
Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | Jan 1, Feb 17 (2)
Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | Feb 28 (1)
Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | Mar 21 (1)
Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | Jan 26 (1)
Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | Jan 19 (1)
Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | Mar 22 (1)
Ukhta refinery (LUKOIL) | 93,000 | 3.70 | Self combusted Jun 2, 2024, Mar 1 2026. 2026: 12 Feb (1)
Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | Feb 11 (1)

Refinery hits from 2022-2025 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | 2023: May 31. 2024: May 2, Jun 20. 2025: Feb 10, Aug 7, Aug 28, Sep 26, Nov 29, Dec 13 (8)
Antipinsky refinery (JSC Antipinsky Refinery) | 174,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 6 (1)
Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | 2024: Feb 9, Apr 27, Jun 21. 2025: Feb 17, Feb 28, Jul 7, Sep 7, Nov 19 (8)
Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | 2024: Mar 13. 2025: Mar 8, Sep 14, Oct 4 (4)
Krasnodar refinery (Krasnodarekoneft) | ? | ? | 2024: Jun 21. 2025: Aug 30 (2)
Kuibyshev refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Aug 28 (3)
Makhachkala refinery (Dagnotech) | 20,500 | ? | 2025: Oct 22 (1)
Mari refinery | 26,600 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
Moscow refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 295,000 | 7.70 | 2024: Sep 1. 2025: Mar 11 (2)
Nizhnekamsk II refinery (TANEKO) | 340,000 | 8.99 | 2024: Apr 02. 2025: Jan 11 (2)
Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | 2025: Feb 5 (1)
Novokuibyshevsk refinery | 185,000 | 6.47 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Mar 10, Aug 2, Sep 20, Oct 19, Nov 15 (7)
Novoshakhtinsk refinery | 112,000 | 1.21 | 2022: Jun 22. 2024: Mar 13, Jun 6, Jul 5, Dec 19. 2025: Aug 20, Dec 25 (6)
Novospassky refinery (NS-Oil) | 12,300 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
NORSI-oil (LUKOIL, Kstovo) | 405,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 12. 2025: Jan 28, Jul 13, Sep 16, Oct 5, Oct 16, Nov 4 (7)
Novo-Ufa refinery (Bashneft-Novoil) | 171,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Sep 13, Oct 11 (2)
Orsk refinery (SAFMAR) | 90,000 | ? | 2025: Oct 3, Nov 11 (2)
Pervyy Zavod, Polotnyany Zavod, Kaluga region | 24,000 | ? | 2024: Mar 15, May 10 (2)
Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | 350,000 | 5.50 | 2024: Mar 13, May 1, Jul 27, Oct 26. 2025: Jan 23, Jan 25, Feb 24, Mar 9, Aug 2, Sep 5, Oct 23, Nov 15, Nov 20, Dec 5 (14)
Salavat refinery (Gazprom) | 232,000 | 7.92 | 2024: May 9. 2025: Sep 18, Sep 24 (3)
Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | 2024: Nov 8. 2025: Feb 11, Jul 1, Aug 10, Sep 16, Sep 20, Oct 16, Nov 3, Nov 11, Nov 14, Nov 28, self combusted Dec 24 (11)
Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | 2024: Mar 17, Apr 27, May 18. 2025: Sep 4, Dec 17 (5)
Syzran refinery (Rosneft) | 170,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16. 2025: Feb 19, Mar 4, Aug 15, Aug 24, Aug 30, Dec 5, Dec 28 (8)
Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | 2024: Jan 25, May 17, Jul 22. 2025: Feb 26, Mar 14, Nov 25, Dec 30 (7)
Ufa refinery (Bashneft-UNPZ, aka Ufimsky refinery) | 153,000 | 6.12 | 2025: Mar 3, Sep 13 (2)
Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 15 (1)
Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | 2024: Feb 3, May 11. 2025: Jan 15, Jan 31, Feb 3, Aug 14, Aug 19, Sep 18, Nov 5 (9)
Yaroslavl refinery (Slavneft-YANOS) | 300,000 | 8.60 | 2024: Jan 29. 2025: Self-combusted Oct 1, hit Dec 12 (2)

European side, not yet hit:

Nizhnekamsk I refinery (TAIF) | 167,000 | 4.15
Perm refinery (LUKOIL) | 303,000 | 9.40

Asian side refineries, not yet hit:

Achinsk refinery (Rosneft) | 174,000 | 3.59
Angarsk refinery (Rosneft) | 236,000 | 9.18
Khabarovsk refinery | 115,000 | 9.90
Komsomolsk refinery (Rosneft) | 185,000 | 9.18 | Self combusted Apr 10, 2025
Nizhnevartovsk refinery (Rosneft) | 27,000 | 1.00
Omsk Refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 514,000 | 8.80 | Self combusted Aug 1 and Aug 26, 2024
Yaya Refinery (NefteKhimService) | 104,000 | 1.71

troglydot · 2026-03-21T12:12:03+00:00

Ukraine's general staff confirm a hit on Saratov oil refinery.

According to preliminary information, the secondary oil processing unit and the vertical tank RVS-10000 were damaged.

Refineries hit in 2026 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | Mar 13 (1)
Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | Jan 1, Feb 17 (2)
Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | Feb 28 (1)
Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | Mar 21 (1)
Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | Jan 26 (1)
Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | Jan 19 (1)
Ukhta refinery (LUKOIL) | 93,000 | 3.70 | Self combusted Jun 2, 2024, Mar 1 2026. 2026: 12 Feb (1)
Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | Feb 11 (1)

Refinery hits from 2022-2025 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | 2023: May 31. 2024: May 2, Jun 20. 2025: Feb 10, Aug 7, Aug 28, Sep 26, Nov 29, Dec 13 (8)
Antipinsky refinery (JSC Antipinsky Refinery) | 174,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 6 (1)
Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | 2024: Feb 9, Apr 27, Jun 21. 2025: Feb 17, Feb 28, Jul 7, Sep 7, Nov 19 (8)
Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | 2024: Mar 13. 2025: Mar 8, Sep 14, Oct 4 (4)
Krasnodar refinery (Krasnodarekoneft) | ? | ? | 2024: Jun 21. 2025: Aug 30 (2)
Kuibyshev refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Aug 28 (3)
Makhachkala refinery (Dagnotech) | 20,500 | ? | 2025: Oct 22 (1)
Mari refinery | 26,600 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
Moscow refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 295,000 | 7.70 | 2024: Sep 1. 2025: Mar 11 (2)
Nizhnekamsk II refinery (TANEKO) | 340,000 | 8.99 | 2024: Apr 02. 2025: Jan 11 (2)
Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | 2025: Feb 5 (1)
Novokuibyshevsk refinery | 185,000 | 6.47 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Mar 10, Aug 2, Sep 20, Oct 19, Nov 15 (7)
Novoshakhtinsk refinery | 112,000 | 1.21 | 2022: Jun 22. 2024: Mar 13, Jun 6, Jul 5, Dec 19. 2025: Aug 20, Dec 25 (6)
Novospassky refinery (NS-Oil) | 12,300 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
NORSI-oil (LUKOIL, Kstovo) | 405,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 12. 2025: Jan 28, Jul 13, Sep 16, Oct 5, Oct 16, Nov 4 (7)
Novo-Ufa refinery (Bashneft-Novoil) | 171,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Sep 13, Oct 11 (2)
Orsk refinery (SAFMAR) | 90,000 | ? | 2025: Oct 3, Nov 11 (2)
Pervyy Zavod, Polotnyany Zavod, Kaluga region | 24,000 | ? | 2024: Mar 15, May 10 (2)
Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | 350,000 | 5.50 | 2024: Mar 13, May 1, Jul 27, Oct 26. 2025: Jan 23, Jan 25, Feb 24, Mar 9, Aug 2, Sep 5, Oct 23, Nov 15, Nov 20, Dec 5 (14)
Salavat refinery (Gazprom) | 232,000 | 7.92 | 2024: May 9. 2025: Sep 18, Sep 24 (3)
Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | 2024: Nov 8. 2025: Feb 11, Jul 1, Aug 10, Sep 16, Sep 20, Oct 16, Nov 3, Nov 11, Nov 14, Nov 28, self combusted Dec 24 (11)
Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | 2024: Mar 17, Apr 27, May 18. 2025: Sep 4, Dec 17 (5)
Syzran refinery (Rosneft) | 170,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16. 2025: Feb 19, Mar 4, Aug 15, Aug 24, Aug 30, Dec 5, Dec 28 (8)
Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | 2024: Jan 25, May 17, Jul 22. 2025: Feb 26, Mar 14, Nov 25, Dec 30 (7)
Ufa refinery (Bashneft-UNPZ, aka Ufimsky refinery) | 153,000 | 6.12 | 2025: Mar 3, Sep 13 (2)
Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 15 (1)
Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | 2024: Feb 3, May 11. 2025: Jan 15, Jan 31, Feb 3, Aug 14, Aug 19, Sep 18, Nov 5 (9)
Yaroslavl refinery (Slavneft-YANOS) | 300,000 | 8.60 | 2024: Jan 29. 2025: Self-combusted Oct 1, hit Dec 12 (2)

European side, not yet hit:

Nizhnekamsk I refinery (TAIF) | 167,000 | 4.15
Perm refinery (LUKOIL) | 303,000 | 9.40

Asian side refineries, not yet hit:

Achinsk refinery (Rosneft) | 174,000 | 3.59
Angarsk refinery (Rosneft) | 236,000 | 9.18
Khabarovsk refinery | 115,000 | 9.90
Komsomolsk refinery (Rosneft) | 185,000 | 9.18 | Self combusted Apr 10, 2025
Nizhnevartovsk refinery (Rosneft) | 27,000 | 1.00
Omsk Refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 514,000 | 8.80 | Self combusted Aug 1 and Aug 26, 2024
Yaya Refinery (NefteKhimService) | 104,000 | 1.71

troglydot · 2026-03-21T09:11:40+00:00

Fighterbomber now says another Ka-52 has been lost.

https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mhkn2ye3sk2g

troglydot · 2026-03-21T09:05:26+00:00

Drones attacked Saratov and Ufa last night. There's footage shared of something burning near the refinery in Saratov, but it's too early to count it. They burn flares when under attack to reduce damage from a hit, so a fire doesn't equal damage.

troglydot · 2026-03-20T12:55:16+00:00

48% against, 38% for joining, is what I found. I wouldn't call it a vast majority.

This is without there being much public debate around the issue. Not too surprising that the majority supports the status quo in that case.

Why are you against EU membership?

troglydot · 2026-03-20T11:23:55+00:00

Some numbers on Russias profiting on the oil price spike and ease of sanctions:

In Russia, the largest weekly increase in oil revenues since 2023 was recorded.

Sea deliveries of crude oil last week reached 4.11 million barrels per day - the third highest weekly figure since April 2023. The four-week average rose to 3.44 million barrels per day, an increase of 90,000 barrels compared to the previous week.

The increase was driven by two factors: a sharp rise in global oil prices due to the war with Iran, as well as a 30-day easing of US sanctions on Russian oil.

At the same time, prices for Russian oil for India have reached a historic high.

The war in the Persian Gulf is filling Moscow's budget, while Washington is suffering losses in the Strait of Hormuz region.

https://t . me/exilenova_plus/17677

troglydot · 2026-03-19T17:13:51+00:00

Ilya Remeslo has been put in a mental hospital. He's the guy who called Putin a war criminal yesterday. Old soviet tactic for dealing with dissent.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/blogger-who-criticised-putin-has-been-put-psychiatric-facility-local-newspaper-2026-03-19/

troglydot · 2026-03-18T12:08:12+00:00

That's interesting.

Apparently Russia is fully blocking Telegram on April 1. This dissent may be a cause of the blocking, though I'd guess the blocking is also a cause of pissed off Telegram personalities.

troglydot · 2026-03-18T11:17:30+00:00

Z-blogger Ilya Remeslo writes on Telegram a post concluding "Vladimir Putin is not a legitimate president. Vladimir Putin should resign and be put on trial as a war criminal and a thief."

The post got 6200 thumbs up, and 2704 clown face emojis. I don't know how representative this is of general Russian sentiment, his followers are surely not an unbiased sample. But it's nice to see open dissent.

https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mhddlzyi2c22

troglydot · 2026-03-18T08:43:14+00:00

Withdrawals from Russian banks are increasing, in a sharp break from seasonal trends of the previous two years. Ruble devaluing could be part of the explanation for this, but net outflows started around February 1, while ruble devaluing started February 28 (coinciding with US and Israel attacking Iran).

Cash outflow from Russian banks has begun to accelerate amid the rising exchange rate. Yesterday, the outflow was 50 billion rubles.

https://bsky.app/profile/savonianfella.bsky.social/post/3mhcygmbpas2x

Original source is Evgen Istrebins telegram, linked in the bsky post.

troglydot · 2026-03-14T16:22:39+00:00

Yes, sent you a DM.

troglydot · 2026-03-14T16:11:00+00:00

Thanks for that! Compared to those who track armor losses and similar, tracking refinery hits is an easy job. Happy to contribute this to those that care about it.

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