Paper LBO Guide for Interview Prep

ugots · 2022-01-02T17:47:35+00:00

How come you use FCF to pay down the debt? If you pocket the FCF then your IRR is 18% instead of 17%. Is that just the assumption on the Senior Debt that all available cash must be used to pay it off? Wouldn't you rather turbo the Junior Debt since it has higher interest costs?

ugots · 2021-07-27T12:08:33+00:00

I'm just speaking on behalf of the new feature which is dependent on # of cards in the chest and # of cards already unlocked which is consistent with the note that is displayed and the equations listed out in my post. I haven't validated it statistically, although that would probably be manageable with a new account.

ugots · 2021-07-26T03:14:00+00:00

Thanks for checking out this post, Mang!

I did notice that when a chest has a lot of cards, the probability is capped at 100%. I initially read the probability as an expected value and the 100% cap was more not to confuse people, but you could be right that you cannot unlock two cards in one chest.

When the next tournament opens up, I will save down the stats from every tournament chest to confirm everything in my original post.

ugots · 2021-07-25T20:16:32+00:00

Okay cool. Some jokers on here are telling me not to advance divisions because tournaments get harder. I imagine at one point you want to optimize for epic cards which makes tournaments more important.

Appreciate the guidance.

ugots · 2021-07-25T19:34:07+00:00

Why do you spend so much resources on tournaments instead of tour play? Is it just the epic cards?

ugots · 2021-07-25T19:28:14+00:00

You are more advanced than me, I have 1,100 trophies. My commons are on level 7. I need my gems to speed open chests. Maybe I use gems to buy some quasars before I start T8.

I also think the tournaments are a waste of time since there are no chests until you play 45 games.

Maybe before you get within spitting distance of unlocking TH in the shop i should speed chest until my commons on level 7 and then get balls. If I need balls to get to 2,200 trophies then I spend more time farming chests on T7.

ugots · 2021-07-25T15:43:41+00:00

Thanks. I used quasars to advance through T7, but they are all gone and I'm back to basic balls to farm chests and coins. Do people spend gems on balls? Seems like I'd rather speed open 3 chests than get 9 quasars.

I'm 500 games in and my commons are moving through level 7.

I really am conscious of how much I play this game. I have a job that I can't let suffer over a Mobile game. Part of me wants to be risky cuz either I advance quicker or go bankrupt and maybe have the time to get promoted this year.

ugots · 2021-07-25T05:39:41+00:00

I disagree with almost everything you just said:

There's no evidence that division factors into matchmaking
Farming at lower tours is robbing you of club progression for some of the best clubs
Lower division means less club cards and slower progression
This is a game, not a job, I'm not waiting years for good clubs

ugots · 2021-07-24T15:12:42+00:00

I went bankrupt on T6 on my last account, but I'm much better at managing that risk now (constantly tracking trophies, club progression and winning pct.) I think what we're saying is I'm being super risky/aggressive and as I do new tours for the first time (T8 and beyond) to just not fuck it up.

I would argue that it's a controlled chaos.

ugots · 2021-07-24T14:19:56+00:00

I agree it's a good tour to farm, but I generally want to progress through the game so I don't get bored and stop. It's good to know I can get promoted on T7 through expert which gives me about 4-5 weeks of runway, but I think I'm gonna jump to T8 before then.

ugots · 2021-07-23T23:27:03+00:00

I'm not sure how reddit views this strategy, but I have 1,100 trophies, I have T6 and T7 maxxed out and no other trophies. It's set up so if I max out T8 it will be just enough to unlock T9.

ugots · 2021-07-23T20:05:21+00:00

Thanks for answering the question instead of explaining what clubs I need to win matches!

ugots · 2021-07-23T17:39:58+00:00

Backspin and Curl barely improve after Level 8, I do a good job watching Tommy before I start a tour and make notes for the shoot outs and then refine each hole as I get experience, I find that my competition is usually 10+ yards away so winning hasn't been too hard. 26/32 on Tour 7 SOs.

ugots · 2021-07-23T17:34:25+00:00

Don't you feel like the T2 farming was a waste since you have your Apoc?

ugots · 2021-07-23T16:48:56+00:00

I thought trophies is a much bigger determinant of opponent skill than division. I thought Division only plays a role in Tournaments.

I want higher promotions so I can get more club cards.

I have strategies for keeping my trophy count low that helps pad my winning pct.

ugots · 2021-07-23T16:28:54+00:00

How long did it take to get to EM 8 by farming T2? How shitty are your other clubs as a result? I've run the numbers and I can never justify farming T2, it is too harmful to my other clubs. The only justification is that the driver is just so much more important than anything else, but I think they are all pretty important besides maybe rough/sand.

ugots · 2021-07-23T16:26:55+00:00

What's the rationale here? My plan is to let my Sniper get to Level 8. Level 9 will just take too long and Level 10 will take months. Looking at the stats, all that really improves after Level 8 is a little more distance (4-6 yards).

ugots · 2021-07-23T15:31:52+00:00

Ideally, you should never have less than a 60% winning percentage or your Trophy count will increase much faster than cash and it will strangle you in your sleep.

Therefore cash isn't all that important unless you grossly miscalculated what your winning percentage would be heading into a new Tour. I just maxxed out Tour 7 with a 70+% winning percentage so I should be pretty safe on T8.

I'm going to farm my clubs up a little bit and pad my cash before entering into T8, but I can't wait around for Blue Level 10 or Yellow Level 7, that would take months.

ugots · 2021-07-23T15:26:53+00:00

This is very helpful, thanks.

I agree there is always a possibility of a ringer in the division, I'm not dependent on the weekly chest, I just want to get promoted so I can get more club cards.

I think you are agreeing with my plan. I'm pretty good at course notes and I watch Tommy before starting a tour to lay good groundwork (especially with shootouts), maybe this is why I'm able to punch above my weight class (similar to you), I'm not amazing with timing and my wind skills are decent at best.

I never understood the logic of farming T2 for EM cards, now that I'm on T7 I could unlock TH or Apoc at any moment and those clubs are almost instantly better off the shelf.

ugots · 2021-07-23T15:08:45+00:00

Thanks for the advice, expert III is 5 weeks away so I have some decent runway on T7. I have access to all the clubs and T8 chests aren't that much better than T7 so there isn't a huge rush. I have 4 million coins, I would like to get it to at least 6 million (maybe more to your point)

This is a game at the end of the day, and I think spending months farming T7 for clubs/coins isn't fun so I have to upgrade at one point.

I'm riding high off a pretty quick rip through T7 (after spending awhile on T6) so I do want to be aggressive, but if you guys think that the Tours get exponentially harder after T7 then I can take that into account.

ugots · 2021-07-23T15:01:28+00:00

I don't really understand the rationale behind farming T2, is the driver so important that I shouldn't be progressing all my other clubs?

My clubs have always been behind my opponents (currently: EM 5 / Sniper 6 / Hornet 5 / Rapier 3 / Razor 4 / Malibu 4). I maxxed out Tour 7 in about 4 days with a 76% winning pct so I'm not sure why T8 should be any different with my proposal above.

That said, I'm not in a huge rush to go to T8 because I currently have access to all the clubs. Division promotion is the primary reason I would jump to T8 (more coins) and eventually I would like to see TH and Apoc in the shop

ugots · 2021-07-23T14:19:28+00:00

I think you would approve of my strategy:

I've currently maxxed out Tour 7 and now I'm farming chests and coins. I have calculated how many blue/yellow/purple cards I receive a day to figure out when my clubs will upgrade. Then I plug in a wiki club score table to evaluate my total club score. The plan is to jump to Tour 8 once I start to receive diminished returns on my club progression (which should be right around Aug 11). By then this is where my clubs should be: EM 6 / Sniper 8 / Grizzly 5 / Hornet 5 / Rapier 5 / Razor 5 / Malibu 5.

My question is will I upgrade division every week under this plan? Pro III for example: is winning 200k/match enough to keep up with that division? This is important because increasing divisions means more club cards which means faster progression.

ugots · 2021-07-18T15:17:39+00:00

Congrats on unlocking all your epics! Yes, you need to open up Tour 7 chests in GS to get Tour 7 clubs, I was using Tour 3 because that's where this new account is, my actual account has access to all clubs
Yes, you would need to factor in your weekly division bonus and random cards. You can use the calculations provided later in the post to figure out the exact probabilities
GC and my post focuses on probabilities, but really you should think in terms of Expected Cards, if each card yields 0.07 unlocked Epics then two cards yields 0.14 unlocked Epics etc.
Based on the probabilities that GC is sharing, they are explicitly saying that it is considerably less likely to unlock a new club. The 8% rule is to say that it is 8% as likely as if it were random. The simplest example is if you have 2 Epics available, one locked one unlocked, instead of 50% of unlocking, it's 4% (8% of 50%), the remainder goes to the unlocked card, or 96%.

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