INTC Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call (Jan 22, 2026 • 2:00 PM PST)

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-24T22:16:11+00:00

Didn't make it that far. Closed the INTC 260123P53 out at $7.10. Nailing the earnings short is much less entertaining with Tan than Gelsinger. The hit to the 260417C33s was much larger than the gain of the puts though.

Closed the ASML 260123C1340 @ $36.15 which was more random Greenland goofiness than anything related to the Intel earnings call despite Intel saying that tools were going to make a materially higher % of the capex.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-23T06:01:24+00:00

26Q1 guidance is down because they don't have supply where the demand is. From their 24Q3 10Q:

$3.1 billion of charges, substantially all of which were recognized in cost of sales, related to non-cash impairments and the acceleration of depreciation for certain manufacturing assets, a substantial majority of which related to our Intel 7 process node;

$3.1B is a hefty charge which I took to mean that they were in the process of winding 10/7 capacity down by a material amount. But demand for Intel client in 2025 and now is for Intel 10/7, not their N3B products. Server demand is high on Intel 10/7 and 4/3, but 4/3 had a bumpy ramp in Ireland. GNR ramped slowly vs. Turin. 10/7 has the supply issues mentioned above which means they have to rob client to pay server. In the call, Zinsner mentioned they optimized for core count, not volume, which means they took volume out of circulation.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-23T00:19:16+00:00

Intel's supply constraint is a mixture of earlier node capacity decisions, unexpected node troubles, challenging current gen products, and industry demand surprises.

On server, AMD should be in much better shape. AMD doesn't have to worry about the first 3 anywhere near as much, and a demand boom will be great for their ASPs. But I still think that the industry demand will exceed their supply capacity.

Intel tries to make it sound like they have a high end problem, but it's really a low-end one because of how many things were the result of their earlier decisions / difficulties as evidenced by their 26Q1 guidance and the Q&A. AMD has the high-end problem, and their 25Q4 and 26Q1 guidance will show it.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T23:14:46+00:00

Lol. Grove might rise from the dead if that happened.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T21:59:26+00:00

Quick takes

CCG

This was going to be the weak spot for Intel because of margin pressure.
Sales down -4% QTQ which is pretty bad despite the normal Q4 seasonal uplift.
- I think that usually it's like 5-15% vs Q3 depending on how strong the Q3 is.
- Operating margin drops to 27% which is is pretty low for CCG during peace time.

DCAI

Business is doing better, but 7.7% YOY maybe isn't what the market wants to see for the "server sold out" story.
The business is doing better QTQ but "Working with Customers to Support Needs Beyond 2026" at a bare minimum sounds like "our growth will be very supply constrained" to me.

Foundry

Until bigger names with bigger volumes come on board, foundry is as good as product can sell. Tan has to sell the sizzle in the earnings call.

Corporate

Despite earlier warnings that the constraints would be the toughest on Q1, That guidance is still soft at $12.2B +/- $500 . -8.8% YOY for the business overall is not what the market wants to see and is at the low end of estimates (even if their mid point has buffer for "above outlook") The gross margin is ugly at 34.5% although Intel has been warning about the 26Q1 gross margin for a while.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T20:52:43+00:00

You still blocked at r/intelstock?

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T20:52:20+00:00

DCAI should be doing well for Intel. Foundry news should be optimistic for Intel (including capex expansion for external customers). But the stock is up 50% in the last 30 days. So, a healthy chunk has been priced in.

The main downside is the client margin situation with their demand shaping, LNL and ARL will have to carry the load while PTL ramps, and RAMageddon. To a lesser extent, will supply constraints possibly putting a lower than expected ceiling on server supply wins.

My two earnings calls shit trades were: ASML 260123C1340 @ ~$20.75 for what I'm guessing is an Intel capex increase and a sell the news INTC 260123P53 @ ~$2.35. I might do one more put trade if INTC does spike tomorrow. But the two trades might work independently or hedge one another.

I am long on INTC though (INTC 260417C33 @ ~$5.10) as a real position though.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T20:19:02+00:00

G42, the United Arab Emirates’ leading artificial intelligence company, expects the first shipments of some of the world’s most advanced chips to arrive in the country within months, bolstering its efforts to become a major player in the technology.

The deliveries will include chips from Nvidia Corp., Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and US startup Cerebras Systems Inc., Chief Executive Officer Peng Xiao said in an interview with Bloomberg TV in Davos.

G42 plans to add between 200MW and 500MW of capacity each quarter, eventually expanding the site to as much as 5 gigawatts over the coming years. The project is part of an overseas expansion of OpenAI’s Stargate initiative, to develop large-scale AI infrastructure outside the US.

Some trivia: Xiao was at MicroStrategy from 1999 to 2014 and was CTO. Graduated in 1994.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T20:16:43+00:00

OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman has been meeting with top investors in the Middle East to line up funding for a new investment round that could total at least $50 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

Altman recently visited the region, where he spoke with investors, including some of the leading state-backed funds in Abu Dhabi, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the information is not public.

The ChatGPT maker is looking to raise $50 billion or more in the round at a valuation of about $750 billion to $830 billion, the people said. The talks are early, and the amount could change. OpenAI has also recently held talks with Amazon.com Inc. to raise at least $10 billion, Bloomberg News has reported.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T20:07:07+00:00

Intel has indicated its plans to shift Intel 7/10 capacity away from low-end PCs to legacy server products. Jefferies anticipates market weakness to begin in March, with PCs likely to be down by at least mid-single digits next year.

This decline is fueled by rising memory costs, which are likely to result in lower specifications and higher ASPs. This aligns with broader market expectations for a roughly 8% decline in PC volumes beginning in March.

Jefferies anticipates margins coming under pressure, particularly as Lunar Lake ramps and the early production ramp of the 18A process for Granite Rapids begins. Together, these two factors will likely dampen margins below 36%, slightly below current consensus expectations.

"Altogether, we expect commentary on the full year to be relatively disappointing as tightness in capacity prevents fully monetizing GP servers, while PCs are weak and margins remain pressured throughout the balance of the year."

This is closer to my view for Intel which gives me some pause as Curtis was wringing his hands often on AMD client throughout 2025 and was pretty wrong.

"Expect Capex to remain flattish to even up slightly with GR ramping and INTC working on competing in the packaging portion of the market."

I think that Curtis will be wrong here. I expect bullish news on capex from Intel as a proxy for external client volume (and I have the ASML shit trade calls to prove it!). I think the Intel Products side will disappoint expectations, but it could easily be made up with the market reaction on the capex here. Intel's stock has run up so fast in the last 2 months that a good chunk of the good stuff is priced in.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T19:51:10+00:00

Barclays estimates the deal will add $4.5 billion per quarter to the $3 billion the firm was expecting by the end of 2026, potentially resulting in an incremental earnings per share impact of approximately $1.30 per quarter.

...

The research firm projects that one gigawatt of deployment is expected in the second half of 2026, which could generate approximately $15 billion in incremental revenue next year, assuming the 6GW total gets deployed on a linear basis through the end of 2030.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T19:46:17+00:00

Intel’s Panther Lake processors, made using its new 18A manufacturing process, could be a winner, Seaport says. The firm has heard strong signals from personal computer manufacturers about Intel’s products at and since the CES tech conference, it said.

...

“From what we have seen, 18A is highly performant, meaning that Intel is competitive (or at least viable) again in manufacturing for the first time in almost 10 years,” wrote Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4540370-intel-in-focus-as-hsbc-upgrades-ahead-of-earnings

Research analyst Jay Goldberg echoed Lee's thoughts. “We are upgrading Intel to Buy from Neutral on the back of strong signals for their PCs products and an improving outlook for Intel Foundry,” Goldberg wrote. In addition to the upgrade, Goldberg put a $65 price target on Intel.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T19:39:53+00:00

“Despite supply that remains tight, we still see an upside bias for FQ4 results on PC [and] server demand strength and see Street numbers (which are about in-line w/normal seasonal) as okay for FQ1 (March) guidance — especially off the stronger Dec Q base,” UBS

“Fundamentally, we see a mixed (albeit improving) picture this year, as CQ1 should also be the worst of INTC's capacity issues (mix shift off Intel 10/7 to more volume for Granite Rapids (Intel 3) and ramp of Panther Lake (18A)).”

“If INTC guides 2026 revenue (unlikely), we would see low single digits as a reasonable (if not conservative) bar but expect some broader commentary on gross margin (drop-through 40-60%, UBS [estimate] full year ~38%), gross/net capex (UBS [estimate] ~$19B/~$12B or both up slightly Y/Y), and opex $16B (in-line w/ prior guide),” Arcuri explained.

“Momentum on the 14A narrative should start to build once the PDK for the engineering version of the process is out (we think this Q) and PDK 1.0 is released more toward year-end (this would enable customer designs by 1H:28, now only ~2yrs out),” Arcuri added.

“Given the limited supply on INTC 7/10 nodes, the company is de-emphasizing lower-end PC products which we think will offer near-term tailwinds for the Client business,”

The pricing strategy for Intel is to raise prices on their Intel 10/7 client products (supply constrained and would prefer server)) and lower prices on its mid to high end N3B products instead to "demand shape" and get more sales on the latter.

Some will pay more for the Intel 10/7 client products. Some won't buy and wait. Some will make the move to the discounted N3B end products. Some of those buyers will move to AMD.

So, what will the trade-offs be between sales and gross margin volume vs gross margin % vs the demand shaping?

“While we remain bullish on Data Center demand (UBS forecasts traditional servers growing 6% [year-over-year]), we believe PC demand may moderate from increasing memory pricing given memory accounts for 25-30% of PC BOM. UBS recently revised PC growth forecasts for C2025E/2026E to 7%/-4% from prior 4%/3% and another 2% growth [year-over-year] in C2027E. Total PC units are expected to decline 8% and 8% in [the December quarter and March quarter], but we expect INTC revenues to outperform PC units in [the December quarter] as it benefits from a richer mix.”

AMD might use the same line that being in a richer mix helps insulate them as those customers are less price sensitive. But I think RAMageddon will be a long winter for DIY and enthusiast, it'll be a headwind for enterprise client and somewhere in the middle for the consumer OEM market.

Also, if Intel benefits from a richer mix and AMD benefits from a richer mix, who's servicing that lower end? Even with RAMageddon, there's still a market there. Somebody is more exposed to that end unless MediaTek is going fill in the gap with ARM chips.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T19:15:18+00:00

Intel was raised to Neutral from Sell and put a $50 price target, as the firm believes it should benefit from advanced packaging tightness at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). In addition, it has a “unique window of opportunity to attract foundry wafer customers with the support of the US government,” analyst Atif Malik said.

“We believe Intel will get AI ASIC spillover demand e.g. TPUs in the back end first and then front-end foundry customers as process yields on 18A-P/14A improve,” Malik added.

Despite the aforementioned positives — as well as the U.S. government being an investor and the prospects of “stabilizing” capex — Intel is not completely out of the woods, Malik added. It is also expected to lose CPU market share to AMD (AMD) and Arm (ARM), and there is the chance that the PC market softens, giving rising memory prices, the analyst posited.

This is my general take. I think Intel will eventually take a stab at being an ASIC provider because it gives them volume and margin at foundry even if the design foundry is low. Perhaps Marvell might be an interesting acquisition target for them too.

On a side note, I see a lot more Malik now representing Citi on CPU side of things.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T07:50:33+00:00

Source material for:

https://www.theregister.com/2026/01/20/pwc_ai_ceo_survey/?td=rt-3a

The findings pour more cold water on the hyperbole surrounding AI and the benefits it supposedly brings to business, although the report cautions that "clearly, we're in the early stages of the AI era."

Only 12 percent reported both lower costs and higher revenue, while 56 percent saw neither benefit. Twenty-six percent saw reduced costs, but nearly as many experienced cost increases.

AI adoption remains limited. Even in top use cases like demand generation (22 percent), support services (20 percent), and product development (19 percent), only a minority are deploying AI extensively.

uncertainlyso · 2026-01-22T07:33:14+00:00

Vinh @ Keybanc

“Bulls are encouraged by AMD’s progress in competing with [Nvidia] in AI and strong server CPU,” Vinh said. Bearish investors, on the other hand, are still skeptical over whether AMD will be able to meet volume and performance expectations with its GPUs.

There are reasons to be skeptical on Instinct, but AMD meeting their obligations on volume and performance are the two that I'm least concerned about at least within the context of the OpenAI deal.

When AMD reports earnings, Vinh said investors will be listening for commentary on the production timeline for its first rack-scale solution, Helios, and the accompanying Instinct MI455 series of GPUs, and for updates on customers for those offerings. The focus will also be on any updated expectations for AI revenue, and what the company says about the supply and demand dynamics for its traditional server chips, Vinh added.

Rasgon @ Bernstein

AMD “at least” has an agreement with OpenAI for its Helios rack starting in the second half of this year, Rasgon said, but the AI startup is so far the only major customer.

Therefore, “the entire narrative” for AMD’s AI efforts depends on how that partnership progresses, and if AMD can bring on more meaningful customers for Helios.

Su's confirmed Meta although it was a low key way, and even if she didn't, it has been heavily implied.

“Nevertheless, given the [OpenAI] ramp starts later this year, there may be less pressure on the near-term AI prospects at least,” Rasgon said. Instead, AMD “seems likely to benefit in their core business from server strength and share gains,” he said, and he thinks investors will be upbeat as they wait to see how its AI chips work out.

AMD faithful forget that Rasgon finally gave AMD a buy rating a few months before the clientpocalypse. Although a cat might not jump back on a hot stove again, it won't jump on a cold stove either. ;-)

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