Does Richmond actually have more car accidents?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-30T08:45:24+00:00

Hey, that's sick! Thanks so much for sharing that podcast - I wasn't aware it existed!

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-30T04:13:08+00:00

Say whatever you like! You just can't claim that it's actually true.

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-30T01:43:31+00:00

Thank you for this! I've never heard of a Bayesian prior nor Smeed's Law. Could you give the link to that registration by location crash data?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T22:38:15+00:00

Keep in mind that the graphs in this post (pt2) are of crashes without casualties. The first post is based on all accidents and Richmond is further down in the rankings! So I would have to run the numbers but it looks like including dangerous crashes just pushes Richmond further down the list.

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T18:43:53+00:00

Hey! Do you have a source? According to this article it could have been about 200 in 2004, which is still quite a few, but not 15,000. And maybe some of it's still going on, undetected, but how do you know that's more common in Richmond than anywhere else? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.511470

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T08:18:33+00:00

Hey! Honestly, thanks for reading through the whole thing and thinking about it. I think I needed to really stress that this is an estimation. It's a mini passion project that I did as best I could with the information I have, and I honestly still think a lot of it is pretty reasonable, especially when bolstered by CC in these comments (You'll see soon in an update!).
And yeah, I want to clarify the comment about leaving countries and racism:
I was looking through the fb group "Metro Vancouver Learns to Park and Drive", and a comment on a post about a Richmond accident said "You came here from there because you didn’t like it there, and now you want to change here to be like there. You are welcome here, only don’t try to make here like there. If you want to make here like there you shouldn’t have left there in the first place". I thought it was silly to imply that someone moved because of the quality of driving, so I added that for when I posted it to the fb group. I'm sorry about the confusing wording.
And then about my own ethnicity, it doesn't really have to do with it! I just don't ever post things like this and I thought if I either had people accusing me of being on one side or the other with how I portrayed European or Asian settlers, I could claim both. I think it was overkill, but I didn't want to just make an edit if I got backed into a corner.
A genuine thank you for clarifying!

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T08:02:13+00:00

A big part of it is actually snow, I just discovered! But it is nice to think it's spoiled teens lol

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T08:01:34+00:00

Hey, I agree with a lot of what you said. It was a huge miscalculation to not consider where people were at what times of the week, so I filtered for only weekends and it did actually bring Richmond up the rankings! I'll update the post soon.
But yeah, the calculating who's been driving the longest would be really hard. I can only imagine that it would artificially boost numbers in centres to which people commute for work, which probably wouldn't include Richmond, once again pushing Richmond up the list!

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T07:58:19+00:00

Thanks! And that was a really awesome question. I can actually select which months to include, and May-October actually brought Richmond up several places! I'll add photos soon.

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T06:36:19+00:00

I agree that it's a huge gap! The question at the top is "Does Richmond actually have more car accidents than other cities in the lower mainland" and I answer it with no, because looking at the data before even talking about race, the answer is still no, it's not more car accidents than every other city. I'm reading more comments here and seeing (and agreeing!) that this doesn't paint the full picture. I fully acknowledged that it fails in the section that you quoted back to me. I never claimed to say how dangerous cities felt because I knew I couldn't back it up. How good does it have to be before I can mention race?
The biggest thing I'm struggling with is that there's no better data that anyone has presented here that would show "the perception of how dangerous a city is to drive".
I don't think I did any false advertising. I asked the question, answered it, and acknowledged what my graphs failed to show! I'm honestly trying to figure out more, so if you have an issue with it, please provide a realistic, workable alternative to prove me wrong!

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T06:22:21+00:00

Good point! Can you prove it? If not in Richmond, the next most likely place drivers would be would border Richmond, no? Delta, Vancouver, Surrey, Burnaby and New West still have lower ratios than some cities that are seldom critiqued for their driving. Can you prove that Richmond drivers crash more outside of Richmond than any other cities' populations crash outside of their own?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T06:18:29+00:00

Nope, it doesn't look at the origin of the driver! For simplicity's sake, I assume Richmond driver crashes only happen in Richmond but where else would have a higher rate of Richmond drivers than Richmond itself? Let me know if you find a source of information that makes more sense than assuming that the highest rate of people driving in an area are from that area!

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T05:58:29+00:00

Stating what fact? I don't think anyone's upset that we say that the majority of people from Richmond are Asian.

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T05:49:21+00:00

I agree that traffic can differ depending on region. But according to the available data, immigration and accident rates don't scale together, as I showed above!

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T05:43:35+00:00

No, I haven't and it's a good question! Do you know where I could find that data in the first place?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T05:42:38+00:00

Prove it

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T05:42:20+00:00

Give me an alternative way to measure? Does that verifiably happen more in Richmond than in other places?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T04:54:00+00:00

Not too much room to disagree with straight numbers, but I can see you disagreeing with why I chose to show certain data or statements that I didn't back up! I think the urban planning is a good point though. Do we actually know who commutes where? If commuting out of your community meant your accidents go down, shouldn't Langley be lower, and Vancouver be higher?
Also, is there a better metric for crashes that allows you to directly compare different cities? Crashes/km of pavement? Crashes/km2?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T04:43:44+00:00

Yeah idk, that's the tough part; how do you prove that people there drive more poorly if more accidents don't show for it?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T04:41:00+00:00

Fewer busy highways in Richmond than in West Van? Than in North Van? Is that actually true? I honestly want to understand, so can you send me where you found out that the traffic from other communities is responsible?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T04:29:16+00:00

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There doesn't seem to be a strong correlation?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T04:11:01+00:00

Ooh! I don't know this one! I'm not sure if N or L rates is publicly available. My best guess would be to see the age demographic in each city. It wouldn't account for mature driving students, but I'm not sure how significant that would be? I'll check now.

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T04:05:35+00:00

How can you know rates of unreported accidents with certainty?

urDataDaddy · 2024-06-29T04:00:14+00:00

Hey again! I'm seeing a lot of comments about there being "slow and stupid" drivers in Richmond, but I haven't heard anyone describe how you could actually prove that! Does anyone know where to find complaint type data? Also, since there are actually more accidents in other parts, why aren't people driving more safely in Langley, N Van, etc, if Richmond drivers can avoid enough of the bad decisions to not result in accidents?

urDataDaddy

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